diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore index 60e631d..bb950ba 100644 --- a/.gitignore +++ b/.gitignore @@ -60,8 +60,19 @@ dist/ build/ # --- environments -------------------------------------------------------- -.venv/ -venv/ +# Virtualenvs, by SHAPE rather than by the three names somebody thought of. +# The README tells people to make one per engine and does not say where, so +# they land in the working tree under whatever name the reader picked — a +# `.venv-pw` made while working on this repo was untracked and NOT ignored, +# one `git add -A` from being committed. A name is what churns. +# +# A glob still cannot recognise a virtualenv the way a program can (the +# marker is `pyvenv.cfg`), so smoke_test.py asserts that every directory +# holding one is actually ignored — this list is the cheap half and that +# check is the one that cannot be out-named. +.venv*/ +venv*/ +*venv/ env/ # --- editors / OS -------------------------------------------------------- diff --git a/CHANGELOG.md b/CHANGELOG.md index 70a0391..9562bd1 100644 --- a/CHANGELOG.md +++ b/CHANGELOG.md @@ -10,8 +10,102 @@ from a row count, it leads the section in a blockquote. ## [Unreleased] +### Fixed + +- **`--mode events` stopped at the first event page with no markets and + reported the run as `complete`.** Found by a third-party audit of 8 + October and real. Reproduced against `main` end to end: one empty page at + position 4 of 20 left **17 event pages never fetched**, with `status: + complete`, exit 0, and `pages_completed: 4 of 21` in the same sidecar — + a file contradicting itself, the way a run with FAILED pages used to + before that case was fixed. + + The rule arrived from a sibling whose pages are consecutive days, where + stopping early genuinely saves fetches. Here pages 2..N are the event URLs + page 1 named, capped at `--pages - 1`, so there is no catalogue left to + exhaust and nothing to save: the queue is exactly as long as the listing's + own event list. The walk now visits every planned URL, records the empty + ones in the sidecar as `pages_without_rows`, and keeps `complete` for a + run that actually finished its plan. `no_new_products` is set nowhere now + and has been removed from `COMPLETE_STOP_REASONS` rather than left as + policy with no reader. + +- **Every page the site serves was classified as its own 404 — and 12 of 20 + event pages had every row discarded because of it.** Found while measuring + whether an empty event page is an edge case; it is not, because the + classifier was manufacturing them. The two defects compound into a + silently truncated run reported as complete, which is worse than either. + + Next.js inlines its 404 TEMPLATE — a `"notFound":[…]` branch the router + would render if the route had 404'd — into the payload of every page. + `looks_not_found` scanned the first 200,000 bytes for that template's + wording. Counted 2026-10-09 over the twenty event pages `/predictions` + named, as the site serves them: the wording is on **20 of 20**, inside the + scanned window on **17 of 20** (always at offset ~134,000), rendered into + the body markup on **0 of 5** checked — and **12 of 20 held markets and + were read as "this address does not exist"**, 5 to 53 rows each, thrown + away by `empty`'s `parse: False`. + + So the markers are gone rather than narrowed: a candidate that is on every + good page is not a marker, it is a fact about the site. The content check + moved to the top, where a page whose payload names markets is content + whatever templates it also ships. Two measurements decided the shape of + the fix: a slug that does not exist answers **HTTP 200** (4 of 4), so the + status was never the backstop the markers were assumed to have — the + docstring promising "a real HTTP 404" was simply wrong — and `"digest"`, + which looked like a clean replacement, is on 2 of 10 good pages and was + not adopted. + + The browser engines escaped this by byte position rather than by design: a + browser serialises rendered markup first and puts the template at 511,547 + where the served bytes put it at 134,033, on the same URL. The margin on + the smallest page measured was 67 KB. `scraper_api_client.py` reads the + served bytes and had no margin at all. + +- **A nonexistent event cost 67 seconds instead of 8**, as a direct + consequence of the reclassification above: `shell` spends the readiness + wait and four scroll rounds, every round logging "added no events + (0 -> 0)". That wait exists for one case — the payload never arrived — so + it is now gated on the payload ARRIVING rather than on it naming markets + (`page_flow.payload_arrived`, consulted by `is_unpainted` and by all three + engines' fast path). Back to 7.8s, same exit 4. + +- **The tree-wide scanners walked into a virtualenv.** Not in the audit — + the suite failed on its own working tree. The scanner widened to the whole + tree in the previous release reported that pip's vendored + `charset_normalizer` "describes this site", because it skipped virtualenvs + by NAME and this one is called `.venv-pw`. `.github/ci_checks.py` had + already been taught to recognise a venv by `pyvenv.cfg`; the four scanners + in `smoke_test.py` had not. It is the first thing a new user sees from + `python3 smoke_test.py`, since the README tells them to make a virtualenv + per engine and never says where. + +- **A virtualenv in the working tree was not ignored.** `.gitignore` listed + `.venv`, `venv` and `env`; the one made while working on this change is + called `.venv-pw`, so it was untracked and NOT ignored — one `add -A` from + being committed, which is the same name-versus-kind mistake as the + scanners above. The patterns are broader now, and because a glob can + always be out-named, the suite also asserts that every directory holding a + `pyvenv.cfg` really is ignored. + ### Added +- **`captures/event_served_bytes.html` — the first capture of what the HTTP + client path actually sees.** All eleven existing captures are a browser's + `page.content()`, which is a different document shape from the same URL, + and that is precisely why the 404-template defect was invisible to a green + suite. `make_fixtures.py` now carries the `"notFound"` branch through the + trim on purpose: without it the new checks could not fail, which the first + version of this fixture demonstrated by passing against the unfixed + parser. + +- **A check that every tree-wide scanner skips virtualenvs structurally**, + pinned as wiring rather than by content. The scanners fail three different + ways — a false FAILURE on the describes-this-site scan, a false PASS on + the dead-name corpus (vendored code keeps a dead name alive), and no + effect at all on the banned-wording scan — and only the first is visible + from a planted fault. + - **The repo is public**, and the published surfaces are now checkable. Its GitHub description had shipped carrying the wording §12 bans for the Scraping Browser API, straight out of the family template — caught by hand diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 4cfcff5..feb1b83 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -394,8 +394,11 @@ picked up, without printing secrets. * **Exit codes**: `0` ok · `1` crash · `2` bad usage · `3` blocked · `4` zero rows · `5` remote API error · `6` partial. * **`.meta.json`** per run: status, stop reason, which pages failed by - number, the site's own `total_events`, the row counts per page, and the - category and locale the URL carried. + number, which event pages held no markets (`pages_without_rows`), the + site's own `total_events`, the row counts per page, and the category and + locale the URL carried. The last two of those answer different questions: + a page that FAILED is a hole in the data, a page with no rows is a fact + about that event, and `--mode events` keeps walking past the second. * **An empty CSV still carries its header.** * `diff_runs.py` compares two runs by `sku` and refuses a pair whose `mode` differs — a shallow run against a deep one would report a dozen columns as diff --git a/fixtures_generated.json b/fixtures_generated.json index bf5ca68..02d3fd0 100644 --- a/fixtures_generated.json +++ b/fixtures_generated.json @@ -1 +1 @@ -{"_URLS": {"listing": "https://polymarket.com/predictions", "listing_tag": "https://polymarket.com/predictions/crypto", "listing_search": "https://polymarket.com/predictions?q=bitcoin", "listing_dash": "https://polymarket.com/politics", "listing_es": "https://polymarket.com/es/predictions", "event_multi": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762", "event_single": "https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026", "event_sports": "https://polymarket.com/sports/laliga/lal-bar-rrc-2026-09-16", "event_es": "https://polymarket.com/es/event/fed-decision-in-september-762", "event_no_object": "https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088", "cdp_extension": "https://polymarket.com/predictions/crypto", "not_found": "https://polymarket.com/event/this-event-does-not-exist-zzz-9999", "proxy_error": "https://polymarket.com/predictions"}, "listing": "\nPopular Predictions & Real-Time Odds | Polymarket
\"\"

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Explore popular predictions & real-time odds

\"Fed

Fed Decision in September?

$200M Vol.

$26M today

$13M Liq.

1

88%

25 bps increase

$200M Vol.

$26M today

$13M Liq.

1

\"Clarity

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

$21M Vol.

$3M today

$353K Liq.

373

Ends in 4 months

7%

$21M Vol.

$3M today

$353K Liq.

373

Ends in 4 months

\"Mubadala

Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

$2M Vol.

$2M today

$1M Liq.

100%

Alex de Minaur

$2M Vol.

$2M today

$1M Liq.

\"Which

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

$30M Vol.

$1M today

$3M Liq.

592

Ends in 3 days

74%

United Russia (ER)

$30M Vol.

$1M today

$3M Liq.

592

Ends in 3 days

\"Bitcoin

Bitcoin above ___ on September 16?

$2M Vol.

$1M today

$902K Liq.

100%

68,000

$2M Vol.

$1M today

$902K Liq.

Sort by

Event Status

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market — a platform where people buy and sell shares in the outcomes of real-world events. Topics span politics, sports, crypto, finance, geopolitics, culture, and more. Share prices range from $0.01 to $0.99 and represent the crowd's real-time estimate of how likely an event is to happen. If you buy a share at $0.30 and the outcome occurs, that share pays out $1.00, giving you a $0.70 profit. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, Polymarket does not act as the house — it never takes the opposing side of your trade or profits from your losses. Instead, it operates as a peer-to-peer prediction market where every trade is matched against another participant. You can buy or sell shares at any time before a market resolves, making it easy to lock in profits or cut losses as new information develops.

A prediction market is a type of exchange where participants trade on the outcome of future events rather than stocks or commodities. Prices in a prediction market function as probabilities: a share trading at $0.75 implies the crowd sees roughly a 75% chance that outcome will happen. Because traders put real money behind their views, they are financially motivated to be accurate, which harnesses what researchers call the \"wisdom of crowds.\" Academic work — including studies from the Iowa Electronic Markets and the research cited in James Surowiecki's The Wisdom of Crowds — has repeatedly shown that prediction markets tend to produce more accurate forecasts than polls, pundits, or individual experts alone. On Polymarket, this principle is applied across thousands of markets covering elections, crypto prices, geopolitical developments, sports championships, and much more.

Polymarket hosts thousands of active prediction markets across a wide range of categories. On this page you can view real-time odds and trade on popular predictions like \"Fed Decision in September?,\" \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?,\" and \"Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas\" — along with markets on Fed interest-rate decisions, crude oil futures, Eurovision, NBA champions, Formula 1, and breaking geopolitical events. You can browse predictions by category — including Sports, Politics, Crypto, Awards, Economy, and more — or use the search and filter tools to find the exact market you're looking for. New markets are added regularly as newsworthy events emerge.

Odds on Polymarket are expressed as prices between $0.01 and $0.99, and each price directly represents an implied probability. For example, if \"Yes\" shares on a market are trading at $0.65, traders collectively estimate a 65% chance that the event will happen. Prices update continuously as traders react to new information — news reports, data releases, policy changes — making Polymarket odds a live, crowd-sourced signal of how likely an event is at any given moment.

Polymarket publishes its track record on a dedicated Accuracy page. As of the latest data, Polymarket odds are accurate over 90% of the time a full month before a market resolves, and that figure rises above 96% within four hours of resolution. The platform also reports a Brier score — a standard statistical measure where lower numbers mean better calibration — of 0.0843 across resolved markets. In practical terms, this means that when Polymarket prices indicate a 70% probability, the corresponding outcome happens roughly 70% of the time. Research consistently shows that prediction markets with real financial stakes tend to outperform polls, expert panels, and pundit forecasts because traders are rewarded for accuracy and penalized for being wrong.

Three structural advantages drive accuracy. First, real money is on the line — traders who take wrong positions lose capital, which creates a strong incentive to be honest and well-informed rather than ideological or performative. Second, prices update continuously. While a traditional poll may reflect opinion from days ago, Polymarket odds adjust in real time as news breaks and conditions change. Third, prediction markets aggregate information from a diverse crowd of participants — each bringing different data points, expertise, and perspectives — rather than relying on a single methodology or a small panel of experts. This combination of financial skin in the game, real-time responsiveness, and crowd-sourced diversity is why academic research, including studies from the Iowa Electronic Markets, has found prediction markets consistently rival or outperform traditional forecasting methods.

The most actively traded predictions are displayed at the top of this page, sorted by recent trading activity. Some of the current popular markets include \"Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?,\" \"Bitcoin above ___ on September 16?,\" and \"Mubadala Citi DC Open: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto.\" Each listing shows key data at a glance: current probability, total volume traded, daily volume, and available liquidity. You can sort markets by trending, volume, liquidity, newest, or ending soon to find what matters most to you. Odds shift throughout the day as events unfold and traders react, so the rankings on this page are always evolving.

Yes. You can use Polymarket as a free, real-time information tool without ever placing a trade. Many people visit the platform simply to track odds on elections, crypto prices, geopolitical events, sports outcomes, and other topics. Each market page shows a live probability chart, trading volume, and comment threads — all of which provide a data-driven snapshot of crowd sentiment. You can also browse this predictions page to see what topics the market is focused on right now. No account or deposit is required to view odds.

Sign up for an account and deposit funds using crypto (USDC), a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, browse the predictions on this page or search for a specific topic. When you find a market you want to trade, choose \"Yes\" or \"No\" (or pick a specific outcome in multi-outcome markets), set the number of shares you want to buy, and confirm. You can sell your shares at any time before the market resolves — you are not locked into a position. If you hold winning shares when the market resolves, each share pays out $1.00. Please note that Polymarket has geographic restrictions, so check the platform's eligibility requirements for your region before signing up.

Every market on Polymarket has a predefined set of resolution rules and designated sources, both listed in the \"Rules\" section of the market's page. These sources — which vary by market and may include official government announcements, major news agencies, or other authoritative data providers — establish in advance exactly how an outcome will be verified.
    \n\n\n", "listing_tag": "\nCrypto Predictions & Real-Time Odds | Polymarket
    \"\"

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    Crypto predictions & odds

    ·
    0123456789
    0123456789
    0123456789
    0123456789
     polymarkets
    \"Crypto

    Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

    $18.2K Vol.

    $2.9K Liq.

    Ends in 4 months

    8%

    $18.2K Vol.

    $2.9K Liq.

    Ends in 4 months

    \"Record
    Crypto·Liquidation

    Record crypto liquidation in 2026?

    $70.6K Vol.

    $4.3K Liq.

    Ends in 4 months

    8%

    $70.6K Vol.

    $4.3K Liq.

    Ends in 4 months

    \"Trump

    Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto by ___?

    $116K Vol.

    $1.8K Liq.

    19

    Ends in 4 months

    2%

    December 31, 2026

    $116K Vol.

    $1.8K Liq.

    19

    Ends in 4 months

    \"Total
    Crypto·Hack

    Total crypto hack value in 2026?

    $83.0K Vol.

    $2.3K Liq.

    1

    Ends in 4 months

    89%

    >$2B

    $83.0K Vol.

    $2.3K Liq.

    1

    Ends in 4 months

    \"Nothing
    Crypto·Satoshi

    Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto

    $16.6K Vol.

    $13.5K Liq.

    4

    Ends in 4 months

    97%

    Nothing

    $16.6K Vol.

    $13.5K Liq.

    4

    Ends in 4 months

    Sort by

    Event Status

    Frequently Asked Questions

    Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Crypto.

    Polymarket currently hosts 4137 active markets for Crypto that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $104.3M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

    Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Record crypto liquidation in 2026?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

    As of today, the most active market is “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 100% chance to ↓ 75,000. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

    It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Crypto predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.

    Polymarket is accurate more than 94% of the time an entire month before an outcome is definitively known. Prediction markets aggregate wisdom from informed users, often outperforming experts. For more context, view these stats on Polymarket’s accuracy.

    Yes. You can treat this page as a live data source and watch how the odds for Crypto shift in real-time. It’s a free way to track market sentiment on major outcomes like “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?” without ever needing to place a trade.

    Sign up and fund your account with crypto, credit/debit card, or bank transfer. Browse the Crypto prediction markets, and when you’re ready you can buy shares in your picks.

    Market resolution relies on trusted or official data sources. For complete clarity, you can check the “Rules” section on any individual market page like “Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?,” to see the exact criteria and sources used to determine the winner.
      \n\n\n", "listing_search": "\nPopular Predictions & Real-Time Odds | Polymarket
      \"\"

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      554 results for bitcoin

      0123456789
      0123456789
      0123456789

       results for bitcoin

      \"Bitcoin

      Bitcoin above ___ on July 29?

      $1M Vol.

      $1M today

      $379K Liq.

      100%

      62,000

      $1M Vol.

      $1M today

      $379K Liq.

      \"Bitcoin

      Bitcoin above ___ on September 18?

      $173K Vol.

      $65.0K today

      $488K Liq.

      Ends in 2 days

      100%

      68,000

      $173K Vol.

      $65.0K today

      $488K Liq.

      Ends in 2 days

      \"Bitcoin

      Bitcoin above ___ on July 26?

      $828K Vol.

      $635K today

      $2M Liq.

      100%

      60,000

      $828K Vol.

      $635K today

      $2M Liq.

      \"What

      What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

      $67M Vol.

      $534K today

      $4M Liq.

      Ends in 4 months

      70%

      ↓ 70,000

      $67M Vol.

      $534K today

      $4M Liq.

      Ends in 4 months

      Sort by

      Event Status

      Frequently Asked Questions

      Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market — a platform where people buy and sell shares in the outcomes of real-world events. Topics span politics, sports, crypto, finance, geopolitics, culture, and more. Share prices range from $0.01 to $0.99 and represent the crowd's real-time estimate of how likely an event is to happen. If you buy a share at $0.30 and the outcome occurs, that share pays out $1.00, giving you a $0.70 profit. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, Polymarket does not act as the house — it never takes the opposing side of your trade or profits from your losses. Instead, it operates as a peer-to-peer prediction market where every trade is matched against another participant. You can buy or sell shares at any time before a market resolves, making it easy to lock in profits or cut losses as new information develops.

      A prediction market is a type of exchange where participants trade on the outcome of future events rather than stocks or commodities. Prices in a prediction market function as probabilities: a share trading at $0.75 implies the crowd sees roughly a 75% chance that outcome will happen. Because traders put real money behind their views, they are financially motivated to be accurate, which harnesses what researchers call the \"wisdom of crowds.\" Academic work — including studies from the Iowa Electronic Markets and the research cited in James Surowiecki's The Wisdom of Crowds — has repeatedly shown that prediction markets tend to produce more accurate forecasts than polls, pundits, or individual experts alone. On Polymarket, this principle is applied across thousands of markets covering elections, crypto prices, geopolitical developments, sports championships, and much more.

      Polymarket hosts thousands of active prediction markets across a wide range of categories. On this page you can view real-time odds and trade on popular predictions like \"Bitcoin above ___ on July 29?,\" \"Bitcoin above ___ on September 18?,\" and \"Bitcoin above ___ on July 26?\" — along with markets on Fed interest-rate decisions, crude oil futures, Eurovision, NBA champions, Formula 1, and breaking geopolitical events. You can browse predictions by category — including Sports, Politics, Crypto, Awards, Economy, and more — or use the search and filter tools to find the exact market you're looking for. New markets are added regularly as newsworthy events emerge.

      Odds on Polymarket are expressed as prices between $0.01 and $0.99, and each price directly represents an implied probability. For example, if \"Yes\" shares on a market are trading at $0.65, traders collectively estimate a 65% chance that the event will happen. Prices update continuously as traders react to new information — news reports, data releases, policy changes — making Polymarket odds a live, crowd-sourced signal of how likely an event is at any given moment.

      Polymarket publishes its track record on a dedicated Accuracy page. As of the latest data, Polymarket odds are accurate over 90% of the time a full month before a market resolves, and that figure rises above 96% within four hours of resolution. The platform also reports a Brier score — a standard statistical measure where lower numbers mean better calibration — of 0.0843 across resolved markets. In practical terms, this means that when Polymarket prices indicate a 70% probability, the corresponding outcome happens roughly 70% of the time. Research consistently shows that prediction markets with real financial stakes tend to outperform polls, expert panels, and pundit forecasts because traders are rewarded for accuracy and penalized for being wrong.

      Three structural advantages drive accuracy. First, real money is on the line — traders who take wrong positions lose capital, which creates a strong incentive to be honest and well-informed rather than ideological or performative. Second, prices update continuously. While a traditional poll may reflect opinion from days ago, Polymarket odds adjust in real time as news breaks and conditions change. Third, prediction markets aggregate information from a diverse crowd of participants — each bringing different data points, expertise, and perspectives — rather than relying on a single methodology or a small panel of experts. This combination of financial skin in the game, real-time responsiveness, and crowd-sourced diversity is why academic research, including studies from the Iowa Electronic Markets, has found prediction markets consistently rival or outperform traditional forecasting methods.

      The most actively traded predictions are displayed at the top of this page, sorted by recent trading activity. Some of the current popular markets include \"What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?,\" \"Bitcoin above ___ on September 20?,\" and \"Bitcoin above ___ on September 16?.\" Each listing shows key data at a glance: current probability, total volume traded, daily volume, and available liquidity. You can sort markets by trending, volume, liquidity, newest, or ending soon to find what matters most to you. Odds shift throughout the day as events unfold and traders react, so the rankings on this page are always evolving.

      Yes. You can use Polymarket as a free, real-time information tool without ever placing a trade. Many people visit the platform simply to track odds on elections, crypto prices, geopolitical events, sports outcomes, and other topics. Each market page shows a live probability chart, trading volume, and comment threads — all of which provide a data-driven snapshot of crowd sentiment. You can also browse this predictions page to see what topics the market is focused on right now. No account or deposit is required to view odds.

      Sign up for an account and deposit funds using crypto (USDC), a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, browse the predictions on this page or search for a specific topic. When you find a market you want to trade, choose \"Yes\" or \"No\" (or pick a specific outcome in multi-outcome markets), set the number of shares you want to buy, and confirm. You can sell your shares at any time before the market resolves — you are not locked into a position. If you hold winning shares when the market resolves, each share pays out $1.00. Please note that Polymarket has geographic restrictions, so check the platform's eligibility requirements for your region before signing up.

      Every market on Polymarket has a predefined set of resolution rules and designated sources, both listed in the \"Rules\" section of the market's page. These sources — which vary by market and may include official government announcements, major news agencies, or other authoritative data providers — establish in advance exactly how an outcome will be verified.
        \n\n\n", "listing_dash": "\nPolitics Prediction Markets & Live Odds 2026 | Polymarket
        \"\"

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        Politics

        Politics

        Frequently Asked Questions

        Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where users trade on the real-world outcomes of events across Politics and many other topics. Prices are quoted from 0 to 100 cents and reflect the implied probability that an event will occur. Because traders put real money behind their views, Polymarket odds represent a real-time, skin-in-the-game consensus, often referred to as the \"wisdom of the crowd.\"

        A Politics prediction market lets users trade Yes or No shares on a specific question tied to Politics-related events, such as \"Fed Decision in September?\". Each share pays out $1 if the outcome resolves in its favor, and $0 if it does not. The current share price, for example, 88% on \"25 bps increase\", reflects the market’s implied probability for that outcome at any given moment.

        The Politics category hosts 3.5K markets covering a wide range of subjects. Popular subcategories include Midterms, Global Elections, and US Election, each with its own dedicated page showing live odds, trading volume, and active markets. You can browse the full list of Politics subcategories from the left-side navigation on the Politics page.

        Every Politics market on Polymarket has outcomes priced between 0¢ and 100¢. That price is the implied probability of the outcome occurring. For example, if \"25 bps increase\" is trading at 88% in \"Fed Decision in September?\", traders are collectively pricing in roughly that probability. Prices update continuously as new information, data releases, and events move trader sentiment.

        Activity is constantly shifting, but you can sort the page by 24-hour volume to see where trading is concentrated. Currently, \"Fed Decision in September?\" is among the most actively traded markets on the Politics page, alongside other high-volume markets like \"Fed Decision in September?\" and \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?\".

        Each Politics market has a clearly defined resolution source and criteria published on the market page. When the event concludes, for example, when a result is officially reported, a deadline passes, or an authoritative source confirms the outcome, the market resolves and winning shares pay out $1 each. Markets in categories such as Elections, Economy, and Geopolitics typically rely on official government, regulatory, or primary-source reporting for resolution.

        Politics markets respond in real time to news, announcements, data releases, and policy shifts. A single development, such as a new poll, economic indicator, court ruling, or geopolitical event, can materially change the implied probability of an outcome. Looking at markets like \"Fed Decision in September?\", price movements reflect traders continuously updating their views as fresh information arrives.

        Polymarket currently lists 3.5K markets in the Politics category. The left-side navigation shows live market counts for each available subcategory so you can quickly see where coverage is deepest.

        Yes. Most Politics markets are designed to let users trade well ahead of the underlying event, from short-horizon weekly markets to long-dated markets covering outcomes months or years away. Examples currently listed include \"Fed Decision in September?\" and \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?\", which let traders take positions as new information emerges over the life of the market.

        Prediction markets and traditional forecasts, such as polls, models, or analyst estimates, are complementary tools. Because Polymarket traders are risking real capital, Politics odds aggregate many participants’ information and incentives into a single probability, a mechanism that has historically tracked real-world outcomes closely in domains like Elections, Economy, and Geopolitics. That said, no market is a guarantee; odds represent trader consensus at a point in time, not a prediction of what will happen.

        You can browse the Politics page to see active markets, open any market such as \"Fed Decision in September?\" to view its order book and full rules, and then trade Yes or No shares once your account is funded. The left-side navigation makes it easy to drill into subcategories like Midterms or Global Elections to focus on the topics you follow most closely.

        Politics markets are driven by the same catalysts that move the underlying real-world story: official announcements, scheduled events and deadlines, data and reporting, and major news. For a market like \"Fed Decision in September?\", watch for upcoming dates, related Politics releases, and shifts in the broader Midterms and Global Elections markets, all of which can change the implied probability traders assign to each outcome.

        Every market card on Politics pages displays the current implied probability for each outcome along with 24-hour or cumulative trading volume. For deeper detail, including price history, the order book, and full resolution rules, click into any individual market such as \"Fed Decision in September?\".
          \n\n\n", "listing_es": "\nPredicciones populares y cuotas en tiempo real | Polymarket
          \"\"

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          Explore popular predictions & real-time odds

          \"¿Decisión

          ¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?

          $200M Vol.

          $26M today

          $13M Liq.

          1

          Ends hace alrededor de 16 horas

          88%

          Aumento de 25 pb

          $200M Vol.

          $26M today

          $13M Liq.

          1

          Ends hace alrededor de 16 horas

          \"¿La

          ¿La Ley de Claridad (H.R.3633) se convirtió en ley en 2026?

          $21M Vol.

          $3M today

          $353K Liq.

          373

          Ends en 4 meses

          7%

          $21M Vol.

          $3M today

          $353K Liq.

          373

          Ends en 4 meses

          \"Mubadala

          Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

          $2M Vol.

          $2M today

          $1M Liq.

          Ends hace alrededor de 1 mes

          100%

          Alex de Minaur

          $2M Vol.

          $2M today

          $1M Liq.

          Ends hace alrededor de 1 mes

          Ordenar por

          Estado del evento

          Preguntas frecuentes

          Polymarket es el mercado de predicciones más grande del mundo — una plataforma donde las personas compran y venden acciones en los resultados de eventos del mundo real. Los temas abarcan política, deportes, criptomonedas, finanzas, geopolítica, cultura y más. Los precios de las acciones van de $0.01 a $0.99 y representan la estimación en tiempo real de la multitud sobre la probabilidad de que un evento ocurra. Si compras una acción a $0.30 y el resultado ocurre, esa acción paga $1.00, dándote una ganancia de $0.70. A diferencia de las casas de apuestas tradicionales, Polymarket no actúa como la casa — nunca toma el lado opuesto de tu operación ni se beneficia de tus pérdidas. En su lugar, opera como un mercado de predicciones entre pares donde cada operación se empareja con otro participante. Puedes comprar o vender acciones en cualquier momento antes de que un mercado se resuelva.

          Un mercado de predicciones es un tipo de intercambio donde los participantes operan sobre el resultado de eventos futuros en lugar de acciones o materias primas. Los precios funcionan como probabilidades: una acción que se negocia a $0.75 implica que la multitud ve aproximadamente un 75% de probabilidad de que ese resultado ocurra. Debido a que los operadores ponen dinero real detrás de sus opiniones, están financieramente motivados para ser precisos, lo que aprovecha lo que los investigadores llaman la \"sabiduría de las multitudes\". El trabajo académico ha demostrado repetidamente que los mercados de predicciones tienden a producir pronósticos más precisos que las encuestas, los expertos o los analistas individuales solos.

          Polymarket alberga miles de mercados de predicciones activos en una amplia gama de categorías. En esta página puedes ver probabilidades en tiempo real y operar con predicciones populares como \"¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?\", \"¿La Ley de Claridad (H.R.3633) se convirtió en ley en 2026?\" y \"Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas\" — junto con mercados sobre decisiones de tasas de interés de la Fed, futuros de petróleo crudo, Eurovisión, campeones de la NBA, Fórmula 1 y eventos geopolíticos de última hora. Puedes explorar predicciones por categoría o usar las herramientas de búsqueda y filtro para encontrar el mercado exacto que buscas. Se añaden nuevos mercados regularmente.

          Las probabilidades en Polymarket se expresan como precios entre $0.01 y $0.99, y cada precio representa directamente una probabilidad implícita. Por ejemplo, si las acciones de \"Sí\" en un mercado se negocian a $0.65, los operadores estiman colectivamente un 65% de probabilidad de que el evento ocurra. Los precios se actualizan continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nueva información.

          Polymarket publica su historial en una página de Precisión dedicada. Según los datos más recientes, las probabilidades de Polymarket son precisas más del 90% del tiempo un mes completo antes de que un mercado se resuelva, y esa cifra sube por encima del 96% dentro de las cuatro horas de resolución. La plataforma también reporta un puntaje Brier de 0.0843 en todos los mercados resueltos.

          Tres ventajas estructurales impulsan la precisión. Primero, hay dinero real en juego. Segundo, los precios se actualizan continuamente en tiempo real. Tercero, los mercados de predicciones agregan información de una multitud diversa de participantes. Esta combinación de participación financiera, capacidad de respuesta en tiempo real y diversidad colaborativa es la razón por la que la investigación académica ha encontrado que los mercados de predicciones consistentemente rivalizan o superan los métodos de pronóstico tradicionales.

          Las predicciones más activamente negociadas se muestran en la parte superior de esta página, ordenadas por actividad de negociación reciente. Algunos de los mercados populares actuales incluyen \"¿Qué partido ganará más escaños en las elecciones parlamentarias rusas?\", \"¿Bitcoin por encima de ___ el 16 de septiembre?\" y \"Mubadala Citi DC Open: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto\". Cada listado muestra datos clave de un vistazo: probabilidad actual, volumen total negociado, volumen diario y liquidez disponible. Las probabilidades cambian a lo largo del día a medida que los eventos se desarrollan.

          Sí. Puedes usar Polymarket como una herramienta de información gratuita en tiempo real sin necesidad de realizar ninguna operación. Muchas personas visitan la plataforma simplemente para seguir las probabilidades de elecciones, precios de criptomonedas, eventos geopolíticos y resultados deportivos. No se requiere cuenta ni depósito para ver las probabilidades.

          Regístrate para una cuenta y deposita fondos usando criptomonedas (USDC), una tarjeta de crédito o débito, o una transferencia bancaria. Una vez que tu cuenta esté financiada, explora las predicciones en esta página o busca un tema específico. Ten en cuenta que Polymarket tiene restricciones geográficas.

          Cada mercado en Polymarket tiene un conjunto predefinido de reglas de resolución y fuentes designadas, ambas listadas en la sección \"Reglas\" de la página del mercado. Estas fuentes establecen de antemano exactamente cómo se verificará un resultado.
            \n\n\n", "event_multi": "\nFed Decision in September? Trading Odds & Predictions 2026 | Polymarket
            \"\"

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            \"icon

            Fed Decision in September?

            Sep 16

            25 bps increase 88%

            No change 12%

            50+ bps increase <1%

            25 bps decrease <1%

            Source: Polymarket.com

            $200,329,311 Vol.

            $200,329,311 Vol.

            Sep 15, 2026

            50+ bps decrease

            $19,376,636 Vol.

            <1%

            25 bps decrease

            $54,678,338 Vol.

            <1%

            0123456789
            0123456789
            %

            No change

            $54,479,116 Vol.

            12%

            0123456789
            0123456789
            %

            25 bps increase

            $40,326,742 Vol.

            88%

            0123456789
            0123456789
            %

            50+ bps increase

            $31,468,479 Vol.

            1%

            0123456789
            0123456789
            %
            The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reinforced by hotter-than-expected August consumer price data and oil prices above $100 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions, has driven trader expectations toward a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks signaled readiness to act if underlying price pressures fail to ease, shifting market-implied odds sharply higher from levels seen a month earlier. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.1% and steady payroll gains, have reduced concerns about overtightening while supporting the case for modest policy adjustment. The resulting trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to the 25-basis-point increase, with only limited room priced for no change.

            The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

            This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.

            If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

            The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

            The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

            This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.
            The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to...

            Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

            Volume
            $200,329,311
            End Date
            Sep 16, 2026
            Market Opened
            May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

            Beware of external links.

            Beware of external links.

            \"polmar001\"
            polmar001
            BREAKING: President Trump just calle... Show more
            \"chakkudu\"
            chakkudu
            no change looking good here
            Ungetting
            If the Fed raises rates by exactly 50 basis points, will the “50+ bps increase” market resolve to Yes?
            decision day's here and the calm's still the strangest part, a hike's the boring outcome at 88 on polybro monitor with the holdouts down to 11, most years that's the nightmare scenario
            Road2Milli
            Most logical think to do for FED is to hold and insure that it going to be a hike in oct if inflation is sticky. But to hike now just cuz oil is up in not a convincing cuz oil could plummet down next month!!!!
            jcybd
            probably no change and changes come only in october if come.
            \"allenzzz\"
            allenzzz
            搏一搏,摩托变单车

            Frequently Asked Questions

            \"Fed Decision in September?\" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is \"25 bps increase\" at 88%, followed by \"No change\" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 88¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

            As of today, \"Fed Decision in September?\" has generated $200.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on May 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

            To trade on \"Fed Decision in September?,\" browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose \"Yes\" to trade in favor of it or \"No\" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click \"Trade.\" If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your \"Yes\" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

            The current frontrunner for \"Fed Decision in September?\" is \"25 bps increase\" at 88%, meaning the market assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is \"No change\" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

            The resolution rules for \"Fed Decision in September?\" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the \"Rules\" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

            Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for \"Fed Decision in September?.\" The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

            Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $200.3 million traded on “Fed Decision in September?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

            To place your first trade on \"Fed Decision in September?,\" sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click \"Trade.\" If you're new to prediction markets, click the \"How it works\" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

            On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 88¢ for \"25 bps increase\" in the \"Fed Decision in September?\" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 88% chance that \"25 bps increase\" will be the correct result. If you buy \"Yes\" shares at 88¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 12¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

            The \"Fed Decision in September?\" market's scheduled end date has passed, but the market has not yet been officially resolved. The end date indicates when the underlying event is expected to occur or become knowable. It is not the moment trading stops. The market remains open for trading until the outcome is formally resolved through the resolution process. You can still buy, sell, or close your position while the market is pending resolution. Check the resolution status tracker and \"Rules\" section on this page for updates on the resolution timeline.

            The \"Fed Decision in September?\" market has an active community of 9,478 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by \"Top Holders\" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the \"Activity\" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

            Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like \"Fed Decision in September?.\" Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
              \n$2\n\n", "event_single": "\nClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Predictio... | Polymarket
              \"\"

              It looks like you’re in the US

              Trading is blocked in the United States on polymarket.com. Switch to polymarket.us to trade prediction markets.

              Go to polymarket.us
              Skip to main content

              To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

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              \"icon

              Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

              7% chance
              0123456789
              0123456789
              %
              Source: Polymarket.com

              $21,302,882 Vol.

              $21,302,882 Vol.

              Dec 31, 2026
              This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

              Additional context

              Updated Jul 28

              A bill will be considered to have been signed into law as of the date it was enacted under any mechanism, regardless of whether the President has personally signed it.

              This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".

              The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
              This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

              Market Opened: Jan 11, 2026, 6:22 PM ET

              Volume
              $21,302,882
              End Date
              Jan 1, 2027
              Market Opened
              Jan 11, 2026, 6:22 PM ET

              Beware of external links.

              Beware of external links.

              buy into it best time rn
              \"meagainsttheworld\"
              They could've passed if it had been called the PNUT Clarity Act
              They could fix it and sign afterwards, 3+ months left still;)
              crim26
              everyone listen its not over we still have 3 more months take this as a example remember when the iran war thing and it was a 0.1% of happening and it did thsi has a 50x that now dont give up its gonna go up and pass dont give up people
              \"295\"
              hahaahahahha

              Frequently Asked Questions

              \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?\" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell \"Yes\" or \"No\" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 7% for \"Yes.\" For example, if \"Yes\" is priced at 7¢, the market collectively assigns a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

              As of today, \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?\" has generated $21.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

              To trade on \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?,\" simply choose whether you believe the answer is \"Yes\" or \"No.\" Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click \"Trade.\" If you buy \"Yes\" shares and the outcome resolves as \"Yes,\" each share pays out $1. If it resolves as \"No,\" your \"Yes\" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

              The current probability for \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?\" is 7% for \"Yes.\" This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

              The resolution rules for \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?\" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the \"Rules\" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

              Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?.\" The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

              Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $21.3 million traded on “Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

              To place your first trade on \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?,\" sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click \"Trade.\" If you're new to prediction markets, click the \"How it works\" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

              On Polymarket, the price of \"Yes\" or \"No\" represents the market's implied probability. A \"Yes\" price of 7¢ for \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?\" means traders collectively believe there is a 7% chance this event will happen. If you buy \"Yes\" at 7¢ and the event does happen, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 93¢ per share. If the event doesn't happen, those shares are worth $0.

              The \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?\" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jan 1, 2027. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the \"Rules\" section on this page.

              The \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?\" market has an active community of 372 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by \"Top Holders\" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the \"Activity\" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

              Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?.\" Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
                \n$2\n\n", "event_sports": "\nFC Barcelona vs. Real Racing Club Odds & Predictions (Sep. 16, 2026) | Polymarket
                \"\"

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                  \n$2\n\n", "event_es": "\n¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre? Cuotas de trading y predicciones 2026 | Polymarket
                  \"\"

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                  \"icon

                  ¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?

                  sep 16

                  Aumento de 25 pb 88%

                  Sin cambios 12%

                  Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%

                  Disminución de 25 puntos básicos <1%

                  Fuente: Polymarket.com

                  $200,329,411 Vol.

                  $200,329,411 Vol.

                  15 sep 2026
                  + $50

                  Reducción de más de 50 pb

                  $19,376,636 Vol.

                  <1%

                  Disminución de 25 puntos básicos

                  $54,678,338 Vol.

                  <1%

                  0123456789
                  0123456789
                  %

                  Sin cambios

                  $54,479,116 Vol.

                  12%

                  0123456789
                  0123456789
                  %

                  Aumento de 25 pb

                  $40,326,742 Vol.

                  88%

                  0123456789
                  0123456789
                  %

                  Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos

                  $31,468,479 Vol.

                  1%

                  0123456789
                  0123456789
                  %
                  The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reinforced by hotter-than-expected August consumer price data and oil prices above $100 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions, has driven trader expectations toward a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks signaled readiness to act if underlying price pressures fail to ease, shifting market-implied odds sharply higher from levels seen a month earlier. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.1% and steady payroll gains, have reduced concerns about overtightening while supporting the case for modest policy adjustment. The resulting trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to the 25-basis-point increase, with only limited room priced for no change.

                  The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

                  This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.

                  If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

                  The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

                  The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

                  This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.
                  The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up t...

                  Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

                  Volumen
                  $200,329,411
                  Fecha de finalización
                  16 sep 2026
                  Mercado abierto
                  May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

                  Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

                  Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

                  \"polmar001\"
                  polmar001
                  BREAKING: President Trump just calle... Show more
                  \"chakkudu\"
                  chakkudu
                  no change looking good here
                  Ungetting
                  If the Fed raises rates by exactly 50 basis points, will the “50+ bps increase” market resolve to Yes?
                  decision day's here and the calm's still the strangest part, a hike's the boring outcome at 88 on polybro monitor with the holdouts down to 11, most years that's the nightmare scenario
                  Road2Milli
                  Most logical think to do for FED is to hold and insure that it going to be a hike in oct if inflation is sticky. But to hike now just cuz oil is up in not a convincing cuz oil could plummet down next month!!!!
                  jcybd
                  probably no change and changes come only in october if come.
                  \"allenzzz\"
                  allenzzz
                  搏一搏,摩托变单车

                  Preguntas frecuentes

                  \"¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?\" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 5 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es \"Aumento de 25 pb\" con 88%, seguido de \"Sin cambios\" con 12%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 88¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 88% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

                  A día de hoy, \"¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?\" ha generado $200.3 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el May 13, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

                  Para operar en \"¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?\", explora los 5 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige \"Sí\" para operar a favor o \"No\" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en \"Operar\". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de \"Sí\" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

                  El favorito actual para \"¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?\" es \"Aumento de 25 pb\" con 88%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 88% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es \"Sin cambios\" con 12%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

                  Las reglas de resolución para \"¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?\" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección \"Reglas\" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.

                  Sí. No necesitas operar para mantenerte informado. Esta página sirve como rastreador en vivo para \"¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?\". Las probabilidades de los resultados se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que entran nuevas operaciones. Puedes guardar esta página en marcadores y consultar la sección de comentarios para ver lo que dicen otros operadores. También puedes usar los filtros de rango temporal en el gráfico para ver cómo han cambiado las probabilidades a lo largo del tiempo.

                  Las probabilidades de Polymarket son establecidas por operadores reales que ponen dinero real detrás de sus creencias, lo que tiende a generar predicciones precisas. Con $200.3 million operados en “¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?”, estos precios agregan el conocimiento colectivo y la convicción de miles de participantes — a menudo superando a encuestas, pronósticos de expertos y estudios tradicionales. Los mercados de predicción como Polymarket tienen un sólido historial de precisión, especialmente cuando los eventos se acercan a su fecha de resolución. Por ejemplo, Polymarket tiene una puntuación de precisión a un mes de 94%. Para las últimas estadísticas sobre la precisión de predicción de Polymarket, visita la página de precisión en Polymarket.

                  Para realizar tu primera operación en \"¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?\", regístrate en una cuenta gratuita de Polymarket y deposita fondos usando criptomonedas, tarjeta de crédito o débito, o transferencia bancaria. Una vez que tu cuenta tenga fondos, vuelve a esta página, selecciona el resultado en el que quieras operar, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en \"Operar\". Si eres nuevo en los mercados de predicción, haz clic en el enlace \"Cómo funciona\" en la parte superior de cualquier página de Polymarket para una guía paso a paso.

                  En Polymarket, el precio de cada resultado representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Un precio de 88¢ para \"Aumento de 25 pb\" en el mercado \"¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?\" significa que los operadores colectivamente creen que hay aproximadamente una probabilidad de 88% de que \"Aumento de 25 pb\" sea el resultado correcto. Si compras acciones de \"Sí\" a 88¢ y el resultado es correcto, recibes $1,00 por acción, una ganancia de 12¢ por acción. Si es incorrecto, esas acciones valen $0.

                  La fecha de finalización programada del mercado \"¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?\" ha pasado, pero el mercado aún no ha sido resuelto oficialmente. La fecha de finalización indica cuándo se espera que el evento subyacente ocurra o sea conocible. El mercado permanece abierto para operar hasta que el resultado sea formalmente resuelto. Consulta el estado de resolución y la sección \"Reglas\" en esta página para actualizaciones.

                  El mercado \"¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?\" tiene una comunidad activa de 9,478 comentarios donde los operadores comparten sus análisis, debaten resultados y discuten los últimos desarrollos. Desplázate hacia abajo a la sección de comentarios para leer lo que piensan otros participantes. También puedes filtrar por \"Principales poseedores\" o consultar la pestaña \"Actividad\" para un feed en tiempo real de operaciones.

                  Polymarket es el mercado de predicción más grande del mundo, donde puedes mantenerte informado y beneficiarte de tu conocimiento sobre eventos del mundo real. Los operadores compran y venden acciones sobre resultados de temas que van desde política y elecciones hasta criptomonedas, finanzas, deportes, tecnología y cultura, incluyendo mercados como \"¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?\". Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real respaldadas por convicción financiera, ofreciendo a menudo señales más rápidas y precisas que las encuestas, los expertos o los estudios tradicionales.
                  \"Polymarket\"

                  El mercado de predicción más grande del mundo™

                  Polymarket opera a nivel mundial a través de entidades legales independientes. Polymarket US es operado por QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US, un Designated Contract Market regulado por la CFTC. Esta plataforma internacional no está regulada por la CFTC y opera de forma independiente. El trading implica un riesgo sustancial de pérdida. Consulte nuestros Términos de servicio y nuestra Política de privacidad. Esta traducción se proporciona únicamente con fines informativos. En caso de discrepancia entre el texto en inglés y esta traducción, prevalecerá la versión en inglés.

                    \n$2\n\n", "event_no_object": "\nCrypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026? ... | Polymarket
                    \"\"

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                    \"icon

                    Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

                    8% chance
                    0123456789
                    0123456789
                    %
                    Source: Polymarket.com

                    $18,218 Vol.

                    $18,218 Vol.

                    Dec 31, 2026
                    This market will resolve to “Yes” if crypto market structure legislation is enacted into U.S. federal law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\n\"Crypto market structure legislation\" refers to any legislation that does all of the following:\n\n1. Establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (not solely for stablecoins);\n2. Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (such as the SEC, CFTC, or others) for oversight of digital assets;\n3. Creates definitions, classifications, or categories for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other regulatory classifications.\n\nExamples of qualifying legislation include the \"Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025\" (H.R.3633) and \"The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act\" (FIT21).\n\nThe following would not qualify:\n\n- Bills that solely regulate stablecoins without addressing broader crypto market structure;\n- Bills that only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without creating a regulatory framework;\n- Bills that only address Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs);\n- Appropriations bills that merely fund crypto-related activities;\n- Bills that only address crypto taxation without market structure provisions;\n- Executive orders, regulatory guidance, or agency rules;\n- The GENIUS Act or STABLE Act (stablecoin-only legislation);\n- The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act (CBDC-specific);\n\nQualifying legislation may be enacted through passage by the United States House of Representatives and Senate and subsequent signature by the United States President, or through other formal means which constitute enactment into United States Federal law (e.g., veto override).\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States Congress and the United States President and a consensus of credible reporting.

                    This market will resolve to “Yes” if crypto market structure legislation is enacted into U.S. federal law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

                    \"Crypto market structure legislation\" refers to any legislation that does all of the following:

                    1. Establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (not solely for stablecoins);
                    2. Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (such as the SEC, CFTC, or others) for oversight of digital assets;
                    3. Creates definitions, classifications, or categories for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other regulatory classifications.

                    Examples of qualifying legislation include the \"Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025\" (H.R.3633) and \"The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act\" (FIT21).

                    The following would not qualify:

                    - Bills that solely regulate stablecoins without addressing broader crypto market structure;
                    - Bills that only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without creating a regulatory framework;
                    - Bills that only address Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs);
                    - Appropriations bills that merely fund crypto-related activities;
                    - Bills that only address crypto taxation without market structure provisions;
                    - Executive orders, regulatory guidance, or agency rules;
                    - The GENIUS Act or STABLE Act (stablecoin-only legislation);
                    - The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act (CBDC-specific);

                    Qualifying legislation may be enacted through passage by the United States House of Representatives and Senate and subsequent signature by the United States President, or through other formal means which constitute enactment into United States Federal law (e.g., veto override).

                    The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States Congress and the United States President and a consensus of credible reporting.
                    This market will resolve to “Yes” if crypto market structure legislation is enacted into U.S. federal law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\n\"Crypto market structure legislation\" refers to any legislation that does all of the following:\n\n1. Establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (not solely for stablecoins);\n2. Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (such as the SEC, CFTC, or others) for oversight of digital assets;...

                    Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 5:06 PM ET

                    Volume
                    $18,218
                    End Date
                    Jan 1, 2027
                    Market Opened
                    Jul 28, 2026, 5:06 PM ET

                    Beware of external links.

                    Beware of external links.

                    No comments

                    Frequently Asked Questions

                    \"Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?\" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell \"Yes\" or \"No\" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 8% for \"Yes.\" For example, if \"Yes\" is priced at 8¢, the market collectively assigns a 8% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

                    As of today, \"Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?\" has generated $18.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

                    To trade on \"Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?,\" simply choose whether you believe the answer is \"Yes\" or \"No.\" Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click \"Trade.\" If you buy \"Yes\" shares and the outcome resolves as \"Yes,\" each share pays out $1. If it resolves as \"No,\" your \"Yes\" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

                    The current probability for \"Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?\" is 8% for \"Yes.\" This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 8% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

                    The resolution rules for \"Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?\" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the \"Rules\" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

                    Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for \"Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?.\" The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

                    Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $18.2K traded on “Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

                    To place your first trade on \"Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?,\" sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click \"Trade.\" If you're new to prediction markets, click the \"How it works\" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

                    On Polymarket, the price of \"Yes\" or \"No\" represents the market's implied probability. A \"Yes\" price of 8¢ for \"Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?\" means traders collectively believe there is a 8% chance this event will happen. If you buy \"Yes\" at 8¢ and the event does happen, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 92¢ per share. If the event doesn't happen, those shares are worth $0.

                    The \"Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?\" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the \"Rules\" section on this page.

                    The \"Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?\" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the \"Activity\" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

                    Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like \"Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?.\" Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
                      \n$2\n\n
                      ", "cdp_extension": "\nCrypto Predictions & Real-Time Odds | Polymarket
                      \"\"

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                      Crypto predictions & odds

                      ·
                      0123456789
                      0123456789
                      0123456789
                      0123456789
                       polymarkets
                      \"Crypto

                      Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

                      $18.2K Vol.

                      $2.4K Liq.

                      Ends in 4 months

                      8%

                      $18.2K Vol.

                      $2.4K Liq.

                      Ends in 4 months

                      \"Record
                      Crypto·Liquidation

                      Record crypto liquidation in 2026?

                      $70.6K Vol.

                      $4.3K Liq.

                      Ends in 4 months

                      9%

                      $70.6K Vol.

                      $4.3K Liq.

                      Ends in 4 months

                      \"Total
                      Crypto·Hack

                      Total crypto hack value in 2026?

                      $83.0K Vol.

                      $2.4K Liq.

                      1

                      Ends in 4 months

                      89%

                      >$2B

                      $83.0K Vol.

                      $2.4K Liq.

                      1

                      Ends in 4 months

                      \"Trump

                      Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto by ___?

                      $116K Vol.

                      $1.6K Liq.

                      19

                      Ends in 4 months

                      2%

                      $116K Vol.

                      $1.6K Liq.

                      19

                      Ends in 4 months

                      \"Nothing
                      Crypto·Satoshi

                      Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto

                      $16.6K Vol.

                      $13.5K Liq.

                      4

                      Ends in 4 months

                      97%

                      Nothing

                      $16.6K Vol.

                      $13.5K Liq.

                      4

                      Ends in 4 months

                      Sort by

                      Event Status

                      Frequently Asked Questions

                      Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Crypto.

                      Polymarket currently hosts 4171 active markets for Crypto that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $101.0M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

                      Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto by ___?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

                      As of today, the most active market is “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 68% chance to ↓ 70,000. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

                      It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Crypto predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.

                      Polymarket is accurate more than 94% of the time an entire month before an outcome is definitively known. Prediction markets aggregate wisdom from informed users, often outperforming experts. For more context, view these stats on Polymarket’s accuracy.

                      Yes. You can treat this page as a live data source and watch how the odds for Crypto shift in real-time. It’s a free way to track market sentiment on major outcomes like “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?” without ever needing to place a trade.

                      Sign up and fund your account with crypto, credit/debit card, or bank transfer. Browse the Crypto prediction markets, and when you’re ready you can buy shares in your picks.

                      Market resolution relies on trusted or official data sources. For complete clarity, you can check the “Rules” section on any individual market page like “Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?,” to see the exact criteria and sources used to determine the winner.
                        \n
                        \"\"

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                        \n\n", "not_found": "Polymarket | The World's Largest Prediction Market
                        \"\"

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                          \n\n\n"} \ No newline at end of file +{"_URLS": {"listing": "https://polymarket.com/predictions", "listing_tag": "https://polymarket.com/predictions/crypto", "listing_search": "https://polymarket.com/predictions?q=bitcoin", "listing_dash": "https://polymarket.com/politics", "listing_es": "https://polymarket.com/es/predictions", "event_multi": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762", "event_single": "https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026", "event_sports": "https://polymarket.com/sports/laliga/lal-bar-rrc-2026-09-16", "event_es": "https://polymarket.com/es/event/fed-decision-in-september-762", "event_no_object": "https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088", "cdp_extension": "https://polymarket.com/predictions/crypto", "event_served_bytes": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537", "not_found": "https://polymarket.com/event/this-event-does-not-exist-zzz-9999", "proxy_error": "https://polymarket.com/predictions"}, "listing": "\nPopular Predictions & Real-Time Odds | Polymarket
                          \"\"

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                          Trading is blocked in the United States on polymarket.com. Switch to polymarket.us to trade prediction markets.

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                          Explore popular predictions & real-time odds

                          \"Fed

                          Fed Decision in September?

                          $200M Vol.

                          $26M today

                          $13M Liq.

                          1

                          88%

                          25 bps increase

                          $200M Vol.

                          $26M today

                          $13M Liq.

                          1

                          \"Clarity

                          Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

                          $21M Vol.

                          $3M today

                          $353K Liq.

                          373

                          Ends in 4 months

                          7%

                          $21M Vol.

                          $3M today

                          $353K Liq.

                          373

                          Ends in 4 months

                          \"Mubadala

                          Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

                          $2M Vol.

                          $2M today

                          $1M Liq.

                          100%

                          Alex de Minaur

                          $2M Vol.

                          $2M today

                          $1M Liq.

                          \"Which

                          Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

                          $30M Vol.

                          $1M today

                          $3M Liq.

                          592

                          Ends in 3 days

                          74%

                          United Russia (ER)

                          $30M Vol.

                          $1M today

                          $3M Liq.

                          592

                          Ends in 3 days

                          \"Bitcoin

                          Bitcoin above ___ on September 16?

                          $2M Vol.

                          $1M today

                          $902K Liq.

                          100%

                          68,000

                          $2M Vol.

                          $1M today

                          $902K Liq.

                          Sort by

                          Event Status

                          Frequently Asked Questions

                          Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market — a platform where people buy and sell shares in the outcomes of real-world events. Topics span politics, sports, crypto, finance, geopolitics, culture, and more. Share prices range from $0.01 to $0.99 and represent the crowd's real-time estimate of how likely an event is to happen. If you buy a share at $0.30 and the outcome occurs, that share pays out $1.00, giving you a $0.70 profit. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, Polymarket does not act as the house — it never takes the opposing side of your trade or profits from your losses. Instead, it operates as a peer-to-peer prediction market where every trade is matched against another participant. You can buy or sell shares at any time before a market resolves, making it easy to lock in profits or cut losses as new information develops.

                          A prediction market is a type of exchange where participants trade on the outcome of future events rather than stocks or commodities. Prices in a prediction market function as probabilities: a share trading at $0.75 implies the crowd sees roughly a 75% chance that outcome will happen. Because traders put real money behind their views, they are financially motivated to be accurate, which harnesses what researchers call the \"wisdom of crowds.\" Academic work — including studies from the Iowa Electronic Markets and the research cited in James Surowiecki's The Wisdom of Crowds — has repeatedly shown that prediction markets tend to produce more accurate forecasts than polls, pundits, or individual experts alone. On Polymarket, this principle is applied across thousands of markets covering elections, crypto prices, geopolitical developments, sports championships, and much more.

                          Polymarket hosts thousands of active prediction markets across a wide range of categories. On this page you can view real-time odds and trade on popular predictions like \"Fed Decision in September?,\" \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?,\" and \"Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas\" — along with markets on Fed interest-rate decisions, crude oil futures, Eurovision, NBA champions, Formula 1, and breaking geopolitical events. You can browse predictions by category — including Sports, Politics, Crypto, Awards, Economy, and more — or use the search and filter tools to find the exact market you're looking for. New markets are added regularly as newsworthy events emerge.

                          Odds on Polymarket are expressed as prices between $0.01 and $0.99, and each price directly represents an implied probability. For example, if \"Yes\" shares on a market are trading at $0.65, traders collectively estimate a 65% chance that the event will happen. Prices update continuously as traders react to new information — news reports, data releases, policy changes — making Polymarket odds a live, crowd-sourced signal of how likely an event is at any given moment.

                          Polymarket publishes its track record on a dedicated Accuracy page. As of the latest data, Polymarket odds are accurate over 90% of the time a full month before a market resolves, and that figure rises above 96% within four hours of resolution. The platform also reports a Brier score — a standard statistical measure where lower numbers mean better calibration — of 0.0843 across resolved markets. In practical terms, this means that when Polymarket prices indicate a 70% probability, the corresponding outcome happens roughly 70% of the time. Research consistently shows that prediction markets with real financial stakes tend to outperform polls, expert panels, and pundit forecasts because traders are rewarded for accuracy and penalized for being wrong.

                          Three structural advantages drive accuracy. First, real money is on the line — traders who take wrong positions lose capital, which creates a strong incentive to be honest and well-informed rather than ideological or performative. Second, prices update continuously. While a traditional poll may reflect opinion from days ago, Polymarket odds adjust in real time as news breaks and conditions change. Third, prediction markets aggregate information from a diverse crowd of participants — each bringing different data points, expertise, and perspectives — rather than relying on a single methodology or a small panel of experts. This combination of financial skin in the game, real-time responsiveness, and crowd-sourced diversity is why academic research, including studies from the Iowa Electronic Markets, has found prediction markets consistently rival or outperform traditional forecasting methods.

                          The most actively traded predictions are displayed at the top of this page, sorted by recent trading activity. Some of the current popular markets include \"Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?,\" \"Bitcoin above ___ on September 16?,\" and \"Mubadala Citi DC Open: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto.\" Each listing shows key data at a glance: current probability, total volume traded, daily volume, and available liquidity. You can sort markets by trending, volume, liquidity, newest, or ending soon to find what matters most to you. Odds shift throughout the day as events unfold and traders react, so the rankings on this page are always evolving.

                          Yes. You can use Polymarket as a free, real-time information tool without ever placing a trade. Many people visit the platform simply to track odds on elections, crypto prices, geopolitical events, sports outcomes, and other topics. Each market page shows a live probability chart, trading volume, and comment threads — all of which provide a data-driven snapshot of crowd sentiment. You can also browse this predictions page to see what topics the market is focused on right now. No account or deposit is required to view odds.

                          Sign up for an account and deposit funds using crypto (USDC), a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, browse the predictions on this page or search for a specific topic. When you find a market you want to trade, choose \"Yes\" or \"No\" (or pick a specific outcome in multi-outcome markets), set the number of shares you want to buy, and confirm. You can sell your shares at any time before the market resolves — you are not locked into a position. If you hold winning shares when the market resolves, each share pays out $1.00. Please note that Polymarket has geographic restrictions, so check the platform's eligibility requirements for your region before signing up.

                          Every market on Polymarket has a predefined set of resolution rules and designated sources, both listed in the \"Rules\" section of the market's page. These sources — which vary by market and may include official government announcements, major news agencies, or other authoritative data providers — establish in advance exactly how an outcome will be verified.
                            \n\n\n", "listing_tag": "\nCrypto Predictions & Real-Time Odds | Polymarket
                            \"\"

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                            Trading is blocked in the United States on polymarket.com. Switch to polymarket.us to trade prediction markets.

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                            Skip to main content

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                            Crypto predictions & odds

                            ·
                            0123456789
                            0123456789
                            0123456789
                            0123456789
                             polymarkets
                            \"Crypto

                            Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

                            $18.2K Vol.

                            $2.9K Liq.

                            Ends in 4 months

                            8%

                            $18.2K Vol.

                            $2.9K Liq.

                            Ends in 4 months

                            \"Record
                            Crypto·Liquidation

                            Record crypto liquidation in 2026?

                            $70.6K Vol.

                            $4.3K Liq.

                            Ends in 4 months

                            8%

                            $70.6K Vol.

                            $4.3K Liq.

                            Ends in 4 months

                            \"Trump

                            Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto by ___?

                            $116K Vol.

                            $1.8K Liq.

                            19

                            Ends in 4 months

                            2%

                            December 31, 2026

                            $116K Vol.

                            $1.8K Liq.

                            19

                            Ends in 4 months

                            \"Total
                            Crypto·Hack

                            Total crypto hack value in 2026?

                            $83.0K Vol.

                            $2.3K Liq.

                            1

                            Ends in 4 months

                            89%

                            >$2B

                            $83.0K Vol.

                            $2.3K Liq.

                            1

                            Ends in 4 months

                            \"Nothing
                            Crypto·Satoshi

                            Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto

                            $16.6K Vol.

                            $13.5K Liq.

                            4

                            Ends in 4 months

                            97%

                            Nothing

                            $16.6K Vol.

                            $13.5K Liq.

                            4

                            Ends in 4 months

                            Sort by

                            Event Status

                            Frequently Asked Questions

                            Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Crypto.

                            Polymarket currently hosts 4137 active markets for Crypto that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $104.3M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

                            Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Record crypto liquidation in 2026?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

                            As of today, the most active market is “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 100% chance to ↓ 75,000. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

                            It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Crypto predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.

                            Polymarket is accurate more than 94% of the time an entire month before an outcome is definitively known. Prediction markets aggregate wisdom from informed users, often outperforming experts. For more context, view these stats on Polymarket’s accuracy.

                            Yes. You can treat this page as a live data source and watch how the odds for Crypto shift in real-time. It’s a free way to track market sentiment on major outcomes like “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?” without ever needing to place a trade.

                            Sign up and fund your account with crypto, credit/debit card, or bank transfer. Browse the Crypto prediction markets, and when you’re ready you can buy shares in your picks.

                            Market resolution relies on trusted or official data sources. For complete clarity, you can check the “Rules” section on any individual market page like “Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?,” to see the exact criteria and sources used to determine the winner.
                              \n\n\n", "listing_search": "\nPopular Predictions & Real-Time Odds | Polymarket
                              \"\"

                              It looks like you’re in the US

                              Trading is blocked in the United States on polymarket.com. Switch to polymarket.us to trade prediction markets.

                              Go to polymarket.us
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                              554 results for bitcoin

                              0123456789
                              0123456789
                              0123456789

                               results for bitcoin

                              \"Bitcoin

                              Bitcoin above ___ on July 29?

                              $1M Vol.

                              $1M today

                              $379K Liq.

                              100%

                              62,000

                              $1M Vol.

                              $1M today

                              $379K Liq.

                              \"Bitcoin

                              Bitcoin above ___ on September 18?

                              $173K Vol.

                              $65.0K today

                              $488K Liq.

                              Ends in 2 days

                              100%

                              68,000

                              $173K Vol.

                              $65.0K today

                              $488K Liq.

                              Ends in 2 days

                              \"Bitcoin

                              Bitcoin above ___ on July 26?

                              $828K Vol.

                              $635K today

                              $2M Liq.

                              100%

                              60,000

                              $828K Vol.

                              $635K today

                              $2M Liq.

                              \"What

                              What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

                              $67M Vol.

                              $534K today

                              $4M Liq.

                              Ends in 4 months

                              70%

                              ↓ 70,000

                              $67M Vol.

                              $534K today

                              $4M Liq.

                              Ends in 4 months

                              Sort by

                              Event Status

                              Frequently Asked Questions

                              Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market — a platform where people buy and sell shares in the outcomes of real-world events. Topics span politics, sports, crypto, finance, geopolitics, culture, and more. Share prices range from $0.01 to $0.99 and represent the crowd's real-time estimate of how likely an event is to happen. If you buy a share at $0.30 and the outcome occurs, that share pays out $1.00, giving you a $0.70 profit. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, Polymarket does not act as the house — it never takes the opposing side of your trade or profits from your losses. Instead, it operates as a peer-to-peer prediction market where every trade is matched against another participant. You can buy or sell shares at any time before a market resolves, making it easy to lock in profits or cut losses as new information develops.

                              A prediction market is a type of exchange where participants trade on the outcome of future events rather than stocks or commodities. Prices in a prediction market function as probabilities: a share trading at $0.75 implies the crowd sees roughly a 75% chance that outcome will happen. Because traders put real money behind their views, they are financially motivated to be accurate, which harnesses what researchers call the \"wisdom of crowds.\" Academic work — including studies from the Iowa Electronic Markets and the research cited in James Surowiecki's The Wisdom of Crowds — has repeatedly shown that prediction markets tend to produce more accurate forecasts than polls, pundits, or individual experts alone. On Polymarket, this principle is applied across thousands of markets covering elections, crypto prices, geopolitical developments, sports championships, and much more.

                              Polymarket hosts thousands of active prediction markets across a wide range of categories. On this page you can view real-time odds and trade on popular predictions like \"Bitcoin above ___ on July 29?,\" \"Bitcoin above ___ on September 18?,\" and \"Bitcoin above ___ on July 26?\" — along with markets on Fed interest-rate decisions, crude oil futures, Eurovision, NBA champions, Formula 1, and breaking geopolitical events. You can browse predictions by category — including Sports, Politics, Crypto, Awards, Economy, and more — or use the search and filter tools to find the exact market you're looking for. New markets are added regularly as newsworthy events emerge.

                              Odds on Polymarket are expressed as prices between $0.01 and $0.99, and each price directly represents an implied probability. For example, if \"Yes\" shares on a market are trading at $0.65, traders collectively estimate a 65% chance that the event will happen. Prices update continuously as traders react to new information — news reports, data releases, policy changes — making Polymarket odds a live, crowd-sourced signal of how likely an event is at any given moment.

                              Polymarket publishes its track record on a dedicated Accuracy page. As of the latest data, Polymarket odds are accurate over 90% of the time a full month before a market resolves, and that figure rises above 96% within four hours of resolution. The platform also reports a Brier score — a standard statistical measure where lower numbers mean better calibration — of 0.0843 across resolved markets. In practical terms, this means that when Polymarket prices indicate a 70% probability, the corresponding outcome happens roughly 70% of the time. Research consistently shows that prediction markets with real financial stakes tend to outperform polls, expert panels, and pundit forecasts because traders are rewarded for accuracy and penalized for being wrong.

                              Three structural advantages drive accuracy. First, real money is on the line — traders who take wrong positions lose capital, which creates a strong incentive to be honest and well-informed rather than ideological or performative. Second, prices update continuously. While a traditional poll may reflect opinion from days ago, Polymarket odds adjust in real time as news breaks and conditions change. Third, prediction markets aggregate information from a diverse crowd of participants — each bringing different data points, expertise, and perspectives — rather than relying on a single methodology or a small panel of experts. This combination of financial skin in the game, real-time responsiveness, and crowd-sourced diversity is why academic research, including studies from the Iowa Electronic Markets, has found prediction markets consistently rival or outperform traditional forecasting methods.

                              The most actively traded predictions are displayed at the top of this page, sorted by recent trading activity. Some of the current popular markets include \"What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?,\" \"Bitcoin above ___ on September 20?,\" and \"Bitcoin above ___ on September 16?.\" Each listing shows key data at a glance: current probability, total volume traded, daily volume, and available liquidity. You can sort markets by trending, volume, liquidity, newest, or ending soon to find what matters most to you. Odds shift throughout the day as events unfold and traders react, so the rankings on this page are always evolving.

                              Yes. You can use Polymarket as a free, real-time information tool without ever placing a trade. Many people visit the platform simply to track odds on elections, crypto prices, geopolitical events, sports outcomes, and other topics. Each market page shows a live probability chart, trading volume, and comment threads — all of which provide a data-driven snapshot of crowd sentiment. You can also browse this predictions page to see what topics the market is focused on right now. No account or deposit is required to view odds.

                              Sign up for an account and deposit funds using crypto (USDC), a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, browse the predictions on this page or search for a specific topic. When you find a market you want to trade, choose \"Yes\" or \"No\" (or pick a specific outcome in multi-outcome markets), set the number of shares you want to buy, and confirm. You can sell your shares at any time before the market resolves — you are not locked into a position. If you hold winning shares when the market resolves, each share pays out $1.00. Please note that Polymarket has geographic restrictions, so check the platform's eligibility requirements for your region before signing up.

                              Every market on Polymarket has a predefined set of resolution rules and designated sources, both listed in the \"Rules\" section of the market's page. These sources — which vary by market and may include official government announcements, major news agencies, or other authoritative data providers — establish in advance exactly how an outcome will be verified.
                                \n\n\n", "listing_dash": "\nPolitics Prediction Markets & Live Odds 2026 | Polymarket
                                \"\"

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                                Trading is blocked in the United States on polymarket.com. Switch to polymarket.us to trade prediction markets.

                                Go to polymarket.us
                                Skip to main content

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                                Politics

                                Politics

                                Frequently Asked Questions

                                Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where users trade on the real-world outcomes of events across Politics and many other topics. Prices are quoted from 0 to 100 cents and reflect the implied probability that an event will occur. Because traders put real money behind their views, Polymarket odds represent a real-time, skin-in-the-game consensus, often referred to as the \"wisdom of the crowd.\"

                                A Politics prediction market lets users trade Yes or No shares on a specific question tied to Politics-related events, such as \"Fed Decision in September?\". Each share pays out $1 if the outcome resolves in its favor, and $0 if it does not. The current share price, for example, 88% on \"25 bps increase\", reflects the market’s implied probability for that outcome at any given moment.

                                The Politics category hosts 3.5K markets covering a wide range of subjects. Popular subcategories include Midterms, Global Elections, and US Election, each with its own dedicated page showing live odds, trading volume, and active markets. You can browse the full list of Politics subcategories from the left-side navigation on the Politics page.

                                Every Politics market on Polymarket has outcomes priced between 0¢ and 100¢. That price is the implied probability of the outcome occurring. For example, if \"25 bps increase\" is trading at 88% in \"Fed Decision in September?\", traders are collectively pricing in roughly that probability. Prices update continuously as new information, data releases, and events move trader sentiment.

                                Activity is constantly shifting, but you can sort the page by 24-hour volume to see where trading is concentrated. Currently, \"Fed Decision in September?\" is among the most actively traded markets on the Politics page, alongside other high-volume markets like \"Fed Decision in September?\" and \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?\".

                                Each Politics market has a clearly defined resolution source and criteria published on the market page. When the event concludes, for example, when a result is officially reported, a deadline passes, or an authoritative source confirms the outcome, the market resolves and winning shares pay out $1 each. Markets in categories such as Elections, Economy, and Geopolitics typically rely on official government, regulatory, or primary-source reporting for resolution.

                                Politics markets respond in real time to news, announcements, data releases, and policy shifts. A single development, such as a new poll, economic indicator, court ruling, or geopolitical event, can materially change the implied probability of an outcome. Looking at markets like \"Fed Decision in September?\", price movements reflect traders continuously updating their views as fresh information arrives.

                                Polymarket currently lists 3.5K markets in the Politics category. The left-side navigation shows live market counts for each available subcategory so you can quickly see where coverage is deepest.

                                Yes. Most Politics markets are designed to let users trade well ahead of the underlying event, from short-horizon weekly markets to long-dated markets covering outcomes months or years away. Examples currently listed include \"Fed Decision in September?\" and \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?\", which let traders take positions as new information emerges over the life of the market.

                                Prediction markets and traditional forecasts, such as polls, models, or analyst estimates, are complementary tools. Because Polymarket traders are risking real capital, Politics odds aggregate many participants’ information and incentives into a single probability, a mechanism that has historically tracked real-world outcomes closely in domains like Elections, Economy, and Geopolitics. That said, no market is a guarantee; odds represent trader consensus at a point in time, not a prediction of what will happen.

                                You can browse the Politics page to see active markets, open any market such as \"Fed Decision in September?\" to view its order book and full rules, and then trade Yes or No shares once your account is funded. The left-side navigation makes it easy to drill into subcategories like Midterms or Global Elections to focus on the topics you follow most closely.

                                Politics markets are driven by the same catalysts that move the underlying real-world story: official announcements, scheduled events and deadlines, data and reporting, and major news. For a market like \"Fed Decision in September?\", watch for upcoming dates, related Politics releases, and shifts in the broader Midterms and Global Elections markets, all of which can change the implied probability traders assign to each outcome.

                                Every market card on Politics pages displays the current implied probability for each outcome along with 24-hour or cumulative trading volume. For deeper detail, including price history, the order book, and full resolution rules, click into any individual market such as \"Fed Decision in September?\".
                                  \n\n\n", "listing_es": "\nPredicciones populares y cuotas en tiempo real | Polymarket
                                  \"\"

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                                  Ir a polymarket.us
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                                  Para operar en EE. UU., ve a polymarket.us

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                                  Explore popular predictions & real-time odds

                                  \"¿Decisión

                                  ¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?

                                  $200M Vol.

                                  $26M today

                                  $13M Liq.

                                  1

                                  Ends hace alrededor de 16 horas

                                  88%

                                  Aumento de 25 pb

                                  $200M Vol.

                                  $26M today

                                  $13M Liq.

                                  1

                                  Ends hace alrededor de 16 horas

                                  \"¿La

                                  ¿La Ley de Claridad (H.R.3633) se convirtió en ley en 2026?

                                  $21M Vol.

                                  $3M today

                                  $353K Liq.

                                  373

                                  Ends en 4 meses

                                  7%

                                  $21M Vol.

                                  $3M today

                                  $353K Liq.

                                  373

                                  Ends en 4 meses

                                  \"Mubadala

                                  Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

                                  $2M Vol.

                                  $2M today

                                  $1M Liq.

                                  Ends hace alrededor de 1 mes

                                  100%

                                  Alex de Minaur

                                  $2M Vol.

                                  $2M today

                                  $1M Liq.

                                  Ends hace alrededor de 1 mes

                                  Ordenar por

                                  Estado del evento

                                  Preguntas frecuentes

                                  Polymarket es el mercado de predicciones más grande del mundo — una plataforma donde las personas compran y venden acciones en los resultados de eventos del mundo real. Los temas abarcan política, deportes, criptomonedas, finanzas, geopolítica, cultura y más. Los precios de las acciones van de $0.01 a $0.99 y representan la estimación en tiempo real de la multitud sobre la probabilidad de que un evento ocurra. Si compras una acción a $0.30 y el resultado ocurre, esa acción paga $1.00, dándote una ganancia de $0.70. A diferencia de las casas de apuestas tradicionales, Polymarket no actúa como la casa — nunca toma el lado opuesto de tu operación ni se beneficia de tus pérdidas. En su lugar, opera como un mercado de predicciones entre pares donde cada operación se empareja con otro participante. Puedes comprar o vender acciones en cualquier momento antes de que un mercado se resuelva.

                                  Un mercado de predicciones es un tipo de intercambio donde los participantes operan sobre el resultado de eventos futuros en lugar de acciones o materias primas. Los precios funcionan como probabilidades: una acción que se negocia a $0.75 implica que la multitud ve aproximadamente un 75% de probabilidad de que ese resultado ocurra. Debido a que los operadores ponen dinero real detrás de sus opiniones, están financieramente motivados para ser precisos, lo que aprovecha lo que los investigadores llaman la \"sabiduría de las multitudes\". El trabajo académico ha demostrado repetidamente que los mercados de predicciones tienden a producir pronósticos más precisos que las encuestas, los expertos o los analistas individuales solos.

                                  Polymarket alberga miles de mercados de predicciones activos en una amplia gama de categorías. En esta página puedes ver probabilidades en tiempo real y operar con predicciones populares como \"¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?\", \"¿La Ley de Claridad (H.R.3633) se convirtió en ley en 2026?\" y \"Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas\" — junto con mercados sobre decisiones de tasas de interés de la Fed, futuros de petróleo crudo, Eurovisión, campeones de la NBA, Fórmula 1 y eventos geopolíticos de última hora. Puedes explorar predicciones por categoría o usar las herramientas de búsqueda y filtro para encontrar el mercado exacto que buscas. Se añaden nuevos mercados regularmente.

                                  Las probabilidades en Polymarket se expresan como precios entre $0.01 y $0.99, y cada precio representa directamente una probabilidad implícita. Por ejemplo, si las acciones de \"Sí\" en un mercado se negocian a $0.65, los operadores estiman colectivamente un 65% de probabilidad de que el evento ocurra. Los precios se actualizan continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nueva información.

                                  Polymarket publica su historial en una página de Precisión dedicada. Según los datos más recientes, las probabilidades de Polymarket son precisas más del 90% del tiempo un mes completo antes de que un mercado se resuelva, y esa cifra sube por encima del 96% dentro de las cuatro horas de resolución. La plataforma también reporta un puntaje Brier de 0.0843 en todos los mercados resueltos.

                                  Tres ventajas estructurales impulsan la precisión. Primero, hay dinero real en juego. Segundo, los precios se actualizan continuamente en tiempo real. Tercero, los mercados de predicciones agregan información de una multitud diversa de participantes. Esta combinación de participación financiera, capacidad de respuesta en tiempo real y diversidad colaborativa es la razón por la que la investigación académica ha encontrado que los mercados de predicciones consistentemente rivalizan o superan los métodos de pronóstico tradicionales.

                                  Las predicciones más activamente negociadas se muestran en la parte superior de esta página, ordenadas por actividad de negociación reciente. Algunos de los mercados populares actuales incluyen \"¿Qué partido ganará más escaños en las elecciones parlamentarias rusas?\", \"¿Bitcoin por encima de ___ el 16 de septiembre?\" y \"Mubadala Citi DC Open: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto\". Cada listado muestra datos clave de un vistazo: probabilidad actual, volumen total negociado, volumen diario y liquidez disponible. Las probabilidades cambian a lo largo del día a medida que los eventos se desarrollan.

                                  Sí. Puedes usar Polymarket como una herramienta de información gratuita en tiempo real sin necesidad de realizar ninguna operación. Muchas personas visitan la plataforma simplemente para seguir las probabilidades de elecciones, precios de criptomonedas, eventos geopolíticos y resultados deportivos. No se requiere cuenta ni depósito para ver las probabilidades.

                                  Regístrate para una cuenta y deposita fondos usando criptomonedas (USDC), una tarjeta de crédito o débito, o una transferencia bancaria. Una vez que tu cuenta esté financiada, explora las predicciones en esta página o busca un tema específico. Ten en cuenta que Polymarket tiene restricciones geográficas.

                                  Cada mercado en Polymarket tiene un conjunto predefinido de reglas de resolución y fuentes designadas, ambas listadas en la sección \"Reglas\" de la página del mercado. Estas fuentes establecen de antemano exactamente cómo se verificará un resultado.
                                    \n\n\n", "event_multi": "\nFed Decision in September? Trading Odds & Predictions 2026 | Polymarket
                                    \"\"

                                    It looks like you’re in the US

                                    Trading is blocked in the United States on polymarket.com. Switch to polymarket.us to trade prediction markets.

                                    Go to polymarket.us
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                                    \"icon

                                    Fed Decision in September?

                                    Sep 16

                                    25 bps increase 88%

                                    No change 12%

                                    50+ bps increase <1%

                                    25 bps decrease <1%

                                    Source: Polymarket.com

                                    $200,329,311 Vol.

                                    $200,329,311 Vol.

                                    Sep 15, 2026

                                    50+ bps decrease

                                    $19,376,636 Vol.

                                    <1%

                                    25 bps decrease

                                    $54,678,338 Vol.

                                    <1%

                                    0123456789
                                    0123456789
                                    %

                                    No change

                                    $54,479,116 Vol.

                                    12%

                                    0123456789
                                    0123456789
                                    %

                                    25 bps increase

                                    $40,326,742 Vol.

                                    88%

                                    0123456789
                                    0123456789
                                    %

                                    50+ bps increase

                                    $31,468,479 Vol.

                                    1%

                                    0123456789
                                    0123456789
                                    %
                                    The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reinforced by hotter-than-expected August consumer price data and oil prices above $100 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions, has driven trader expectations toward a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks signaled readiness to act if underlying price pressures fail to ease, shifting market-implied odds sharply higher from levels seen a month earlier. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.1% and steady payroll gains, have reduced concerns about overtightening while supporting the case for modest policy adjustment. The resulting trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to the 25-basis-point increase, with only limited room priced for no change.

                                    The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

                                    This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.

                                    If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

                                    The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

                                    The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

                                    This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.
                                    The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to...

                                    Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

                                    Volume
                                    $200,329,311
                                    End Date
                                    Sep 16, 2026
                                    Market Opened
                                    May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

                                    Beware of external links.

                                    Beware of external links.

                                    \"polmar001\"
                                    polmar001
                                    BREAKING: President Trump just calle... Show more
                                    \"chakkudu\"
                                    chakkudu
                                    no change looking good here
                                    Ungetting
                                    If the Fed raises rates by exactly 50 basis points, will the “50+ bps increase” market resolve to Yes?
                                    decision day's here and the calm's still the strangest part, a hike's the boring outcome at 88 on polybro monitor with the holdouts down to 11, most years that's the nightmare scenario
                                    Road2Milli
                                    Most logical think to do for FED is to hold and insure that it going to be a hike in oct if inflation is sticky. But to hike now just cuz oil is up in not a convincing cuz oil could plummet down next month!!!!
                                    jcybd
                                    probably no change and changes come only in october if come.
                                    \"allenzzz\"
                                    allenzzz
                                    搏一搏,摩托变单车

                                    Frequently Asked Questions

                                    \"Fed Decision in September?\" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is \"25 bps increase\" at 88%, followed by \"No change\" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 88¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

                                    As of today, \"Fed Decision in September?\" has generated $200.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on May 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

                                    To trade on \"Fed Decision in September?,\" browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose \"Yes\" to trade in favor of it or \"No\" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click \"Trade.\" If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your \"Yes\" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

                                    The current frontrunner for \"Fed Decision in September?\" is \"25 bps increase\" at 88%, meaning the market assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is \"No change\" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

                                    The resolution rules for \"Fed Decision in September?\" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the \"Rules\" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

                                    Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for \"Fed Decision in September?.\" The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

                                    Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $200.3 million traded on “Fed Decision in September?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

                                    To place your first trade on \"Fed Decision in September?,\" sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click \"Trade.\" If you're new to prediction markets, click the \"How it works\" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

                                    On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 88¢ for \"25 bps increase\" in the \"Fed Decision in September?\" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 88% chance that \"25 bps increase\" will be the correct result. If you buy \"Yes\" shares at 88¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 12¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

                                    The \"Fed Decision in September?\" market's scheduled end date has passed, but the market has not yet been officially resolved. The end date indicates when the underlying event is expected to occur or become knowable. It is not the moment trading stops. The market remains open for trading until the outcome is formally resolved through the resolution process. You can still buy, sell, or close your position while the market is pending resolution. Check the resolution status tracker and \"Rules\" section on this page for updates on the resolution timeline.

                                    The \"Fed Decision in September?\" market has an active community of 9,478 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by \"Top Holders\" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the \"Activity\" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

                                    Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like \"Fed Decision in September?.\" Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
                                      \n$2\n\n", "event_single": "\nClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Predictio... | Polymarket
                                      \"\"

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                                      \"icon

                                      Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

                                      7% chance
                                      0123456789
                                      0123456789
                                      %
                                      Source: Polymarket.com

                                      $21,302,882 Vol.

                                      $21,302,882 Vol.

                                      Dec 31, 2026
                                      This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

                                      Additional context

                                      Updated Jul 28

                                      A bill will be considered to have been signed into law as of the date it was enacted under any mechanism, regardless of whether the President has personally signed it.

                                      This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".

                                      The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
                                      This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

                                      Market Opened: Jan 11, 2026, 6:22 PM ET

                                      Volume
                                      $21,302,882
                                      End Date
                                      Jan 1, 2027
                                      Market Opened
                                      Jan 11, 2026, 6:22 PM ET

                                      Beware of external links.

                                      Beware of external links.

                                      buy into it best time rn
                                      \"meagainsttheworld\"
                                      They could've passed if it had been called the PNUT Clarity Act
                                      They could fix it and sign afterwards, 3+ months left still;)
                                      crim26
                                      everyone listen its not over we still have 3 more months take this as a example remember when the iran war thing and it was a 0.1% of happening and it did thsi has a 50x that now dont give up its gonna go up and pass dont give up people
                                      \"295\"
                                      hahaahahahha

                                      Frequently Asked Questions

                                      \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?\" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell \"Yes\" or \"No\" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 7% for \"Yes.\" For example, if \"Yes\" is priced at 7¢, the market collectively assigns a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

                                      As of today, \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?\" has generated $21.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

                                      To trade on \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?,\" simply choose whether you believe the answer is \"Yes\" or \"No.\" Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click \"Trade.\" If you buy \"Yes\" shares and the outcome resolves as \"Yes,\" each share pays out $1. If it resolves as \"No,\" your \"Yes\" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

                                      The current probability for \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?\" is 7% for \"Yes.\" This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

                                      The resolution rules for \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?\" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the \"Rules\" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

                                      Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?.\" The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

                                      Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $21.3 million traded on “Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

                                      To place your first trade on \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?,\" sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click \"Trade.\" If you're new to prediction markets, click the \"How it works\" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

                                      On Polymarket, the price of \"Yes\" or \"No\" represents the market's implied probability. A \"Yes\" price of 7¢ for \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?\" means traders collectively believe there is a 7% chance this event will happen. If you buy \"Yes\" at 7¢ and the event does happen, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 93¢ per share. If the event doesn't happen, those shares are worth $0.

                                      The \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?\" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jan 1, 2027. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the \"Rules\" section on this page.

                                      The \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?\" market has an active community of 372 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by \"Top Holders\" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the \"Activity\" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

                                      Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?.\" Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
                                        \n$2\n\n", "event_sports": "\nFC Barcelona vs. Real Racing Club Odds & Predictions (Sep. 16, 2026) | Polymarket
                                        \"\"

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                                        Trading is blocked in the United States on polymarket.com. Switch to polymarket.us to trade prediction markets.

                                        Go to polymarket.us
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                                          \n$2\n\n", "event_es": "\n¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre? Cuotas de trading y predicciones 2026 | Polymarket
                                          \"\"

                                          Parece que estás en EE. UU.

                                          El trading está bloqueado en Estados Unidos en polymarket.com. Cámbiate a polymarket.us para operar en mercados de predicción.

                                          Ir a polymarket.us
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                                          Para operar en EE. UU., ve a polymarket.us

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                                          \"icon

                                          ¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?

                                          sep 16

                                          Aumento de 25 pb 88%

                                          Sin cambios 12%

                                          Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%

                                          Disminución de 25 puntos básicos <1%

                                          Fuente: Polymarket.com

                                          $200,329,411 Vol.

                                          $200,329,411 Vol.

                                          15 sep 2026
                                          + $50

                                          Reducción de más de 50 pb

                                          $19,376,636 Vol.

                                          <1%

                                          Disminución de 25 puntos básicos

                                          $54,678,338 Vol.

                                          <1%

                                          0123456789
                                          0123456789
                                          %

                                          Sin cambios

                                          $54,479,116 Vol.

                                          12%

                                          0123456789
                                          0123456789
                                          %

                                          Aumento de 25 pb

                                          $40,326,742 Vol.

                                          88%

                                          0123456789
                                          0123456789
                                          %

                                          Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos

                                          $31,468,479 Vol.

                                          1%

                                          0123456789
                                          0123456789
                                          %
                                          The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reinforced by hotter-than-expected August consumer price data and oil prices above $100 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions, has driven trader expectations toward a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks signaled readiness to act if underlying price pressures fail to ease, shifting market-implied odds sharply higher from levels seen a month earlier. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.1% and steady payroll gains, have reduced concerns about overtightening while supporting the case for modest policy adjustment. The resulting trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to the 25-basis-point increase, with only limited room priced for no change.

                                          The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

                                          This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.

                                          If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

                                          The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

                                          The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

                                          This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.
                                          The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up t...

                                          Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

                                          Volumen
                                          $200,329,411
                                          Fecha de finalización
                                          16 sep 2026
                                          Mercado abierto
                                          May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

                                          Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

                                          Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

                                          \"polmar001\"
                                          polmar001
                                          BREAKING: President Trump just calle... Show more
                                          \"chakkudu\"
                                          chakkudu
                                          no change looking good here
                                          Ungetting
                                          If the Fed raises rates by exactly 50 basis points, will the “50+ bps increase” market resolve to Yes?
                                          decision day's here and the calm's still the strangest part, a hike's the boring outcome at 88 on polybro monitor with the holdouts down to 11, most years that's the nightmare scenario
                                          Road2Milli
                                          Most logical think to do for FED is to hold and insure that it going to be a hike in oct if inflation is sticky. But to hike now just cuz oil is up in not a convincing cuz oil could plummet down next month!!!!
                                          jcybd
                                          probably no change and changes come only in october if come.
                                          \"allenzzz\"
                                          allenzzz
                                          搏一搏,摩托变单车

                                          Preguntas frecuentes

                                          \"¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?\" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 5 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es \"Aumento de 25 pb\" con 88%, seguido de \"Sin cambios\" con 12%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 88¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 88% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

                                          A día de hoy, \"¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?\" ha generado $200.3 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el May 13, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

                                          Para operar en \"¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?\", explora los 5 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige \"Sí\" para operar a favor o \"No\" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en \"Operar\". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de \"Sí\" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

                                          El favorito actual para \"¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?\" es \"Aumento de 25 pb\" con 88%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 88% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es \"Sin cambios\" con 12%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

                                          Las reglas de resolución para \"¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?\" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección \"Reglas\" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.

                                          Sí. No necesitas operar para mantenerte informado. Esta página sirve como rastreador en vivo para \"¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?\". Las probabilidades de los resultados se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que entran nuevas operaciones. Puedes guardar esta página en marcadores y consultar la sección de comentarios para ver lo que dicen otros operadores. También puedes usar los filtros de rango temporal en el gráfico para ver cómo han cambiado las probabilidades a lo largo del tiempo.

                                          Las probabilidades de Polymarket son establecidas por operadores reales que ponen dinero real detrás de sus creencias, lo que tiende a generar predicciones precisas. Con $200.3 million operados en “¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?”, estos precios agregan el conocimiento colectivo y la convicción de miles de participantes — a menudo superando a encuestas, pronósticos de expertos y estudios tradicionales. Los mercados de predicción como Polymarket tienen un sólido historial de precisión, especialmente cuando los eventos se acercan a su fecha de resolución. Por ejemplo, Polymarket tiene una puntuación de precisión a un mes de 94%. Para las últimas estadísticas sobre la precisión de predicción de Polymarket, visita la página de precisión en Polymarket.

                                          Para realizar tu primera operación en \"¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?\", regístrate en una cuenta gratuita de Polymarket y deposita fondos usando criptomonedas, tarjeta de crédito o débito, o transferencia bancaria. Una vez que tu cuenta tenga fondos, vuelve a esta página, selecciona el resultado en el que quieras operar, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en \"Operar\". Si eres nuevo en los mercados de predicción, haz clic en el enlace \"Cómo funciona\" en la parte superior de cualquier página de Polymarket para una guía paso a paso.

                                          En Polymarket, el precio de cada resultado representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Un precio de 88¢ para \"Aumento de 25 pb\" en el mercado \"¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?\" significa que los operadores colectivamente creen que hay aproximadamente una probabilidad de 88% de que \"Aumento de 25 pb\" sea el resultado correcto. Si compras acciones de \"Sí\" a 88¢ y el resultado es correcto, recibes $1,00 por acción, una ganancia de 12¢ por acción. Si es incorrecto, esas acciones valen $0.

                                          La fecha de finalización programada del mercado \"¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?\" ha pasado, pero el mercado aún no ha sido resuelto oficialmente. La fecha de finalización indica cuándo se espera que el evento subyacente ocurra o sea conocible. El mercado permanece abierto para operar hasta que el resultado sea formalmente resuelto. Consulta el estado de resolución y la sección \"Reglas\" en esta página para actualizaciones.

                                          El mercado \"¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?\" tiene una comunidad activa de 9,478 comentarios donde los operadores comparten sus análisis, debaten resultados y discuten los últimos desarrollos. Desplázate hacia abajo a la sección de comentarios para leer lo que piensan otros participantes. También puedes filtrar por \"Principales poseedores\" o consultar la pestaña \"Actividad\" para un feed en tiempo real de operaciones.

                                          Polymarket es el mercado de predicción más grande del mundo, donde puedes mantenerte informado y beneficiarte de tu conocimiento sobre eventos del mundo real. Los operadores compran y venden acciones sobre resultados de temas que van desde política y elecciones hasta criptomonedas, finanzas, deportes, tecnología y cultura, incluyendo mercados como \"¿Decisión de la Fed en septiembre?\". Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real respaldadas por convicción financiera, ofreciendo a menudo señales más rápidas y precisas que las encuestas, los expertos o los estudios tradicionales.
                                          \"Polymarket\"

                                          El mercado de predicción más grande del mundo™

                                          Polymarket opera a nivel mundial a través de entidades legales independientes. Polymarket US es operado por QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US, un Designated Contract Market regulado por la CFTC. Esta plataforma internacional no está regulada por la CFTC y opera de forma independiente. El trading implica un riesgo sustancial de pérdida. Consulte nuestros Términos de servicio y nuestra Política de privacidad. Esta traducción se proporciona únicamente con fines informativos. En caso de discrepancia entre el texto en inglés y esta traducción, prevalecerá la versión en inglés.

                                            \n$2\n\n", "event_no_object": "\nCrypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026? ... | Polymarket
                                            \"\"

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                                            \"icon

                                            Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

                                            8% chance
                                            0123456789
                                            0123456789
                                            %
                                            Source: Polymarket.com

                                            $18,218 Vol.

                                            $18,218 Vol.

                                            Dec 31, 2026
                                            This market will resolve to “Yes” if crypto market structure legislation is enacted into U.S. federal law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\n\"Crypto market structure legislation\" refers to any legislation that does all of the following:\n\n1. Establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (not solely for stablecoins);\n2. Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (such as the SEC, CFTC, or others) for oversight of digital assets;\n3. Creates definitions, classifications, or categories for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other regulatory classifications.\n\nExamples of qualifying legislation include the \"Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025\" (H.R.3633) and \"The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act\" (FIT21).\n\nThe following would not qualify:\n\n- Bills that solely regulate stablecoins without addressing broader crypto market structure;\n- Bills that only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without creating a regulatory framework;\n- Bills that only address Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs);\n- Appropriations bills that merely fund crypto-related activities;\n- Bills that only address crypto taxation without market structure provisions;\n- Executive orders, regulatory guidance, or agency rules;\n- The GENIUS Act or STABLE Act (stablecoin-only legislation);\n- The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act (CBDC-specific);\n\nQualifying legislation may be enacted through passage by the United States House of Representatives and Senate and subsequent signature by the United States President, or through other formal means which constitute enactment into United States Federal law (e.g., veto override).\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States Congress and the United States President and a consensus of credible reporting.

                                            This market will resolve to “Yes” if crypto market structure legislation is enacted into U.S. federal law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

                                            \"Crypto market structure legislation\" refers to any legislation that does all of the following:

                                            1. Establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (not solely for stablecoins);
                                            2. Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (such as the SEC, CFTC, or others) for oversight of digital assets;
                                            3. Creates definitions, classifications, or categories for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other regulatory classifications.

                                            Examples of qualifying legislation include the \"Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025\" (H.R.3633) and \"The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act\" (FIT21).

                                            The following would not qualify:

                                            - Bills that solely regulate stablecoins without addressing broader crypto market structure;
                                            - Bills that only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without creating a regulatory framework;
                                            - Bills that only address Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs);
                                            - Appropriations bills that merely fund crypto-related activities;
                                            - Bills that only address crypto taxation without market structure provisions;
                                            - Executive orders, regulatory guidance, or agency rules;
                                            - The GENIUS Act or STABLE Act (stablecoin-only legislation);
                                            - The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act (CBDC-specific);

                                            Qualifying legislation may be enacted through passage by the United States House of Representatives and Senate and subsequent signature by the United States President, or through other formal means which constitute enactment into United States Federal law (e.g., veto override).

                                            The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States Congress and the United States President and a consensus of credible reporting.
                                            This market will resolve to “Yes” if crypto market structure legislation is enacted into U.S. federal law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\n\"Crypto market structure legislation\" refers to any legislation that does all of the following:\n\n1. Establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (not solely for stablecoins);\n2. Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (such as the SEC, CFTC, or others) for oversight of digital assets;...

                                            Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 5:06 PM ET

                                            Volume
                                            $18,218
                                            End Date
                                            Jan 1, 2027
                                            Market Opened
                                            Jul 28, 2026, 5:06 PM ET

                                            Beware of external links.

                                            Beware of external links.

                                            No comments

                                            Frequently Asked Questions

                                            \"Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?\" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell \"Yes\" or \"No\" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 8% for \"Yes.\" For example, if \"Yes\" is priced at 8¢, the market collectively assigns a 8% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

                                            As of today, \"Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?\" has generated $18.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

                                            To trade on \"Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?,\" simply choose whether you believe the answer is \"Yes\" or \"No.\" Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click \"Trade.\" If you buy \"Yes\" shares and the outcome resolves as \"Yes,\" each share pays out $1. If it resolves as \"No,\" your \"Yes\" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

                                            The current probability for \"Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?\" is 8% for \"Yes.\" This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 8% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

                                            The resolution rules for \"Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?\" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the \"Rules\" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

                                            Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for \"Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?.\" The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

                                            Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $18.2K traded on “Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

                                            To place your first trade on \"Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?,\" sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click \"Trade.\" If you're new to prediction markets, click the \"How it works\" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

                                            On Polymarket, the price of \"Yes\" or \"No\" represents the market's implied probability. A \"Yes\" price of 8¢ for \"Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?\" means traders collectively believe there is a 8% chance this event will happen. If you buy \"Yes\" at 8¢ and the event does happen, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 92¢ per share. If the event doesn't happen, those shares are worth $0.

                                            The \"Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?\" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the \"Rules\" section on this page.

                                            The \"Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?\" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the \"Activity\" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

                                            Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like \"Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?.\" Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
                                              \n$2\n\n
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                                              \"\"

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                                              Crypto predictions & odds

                                              ·
                                              0123456789
                                              0123456789
                                              0123456789
                                              0123456789
                                               polymarkets
                                              \"Crypto

                                              Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

                                              $18.2K Vol.

                                              $2.4K Liq.

                                              Ends in 4 months

                                              8%

                                              $18.2K Vol.

                                              $2.4K Liq.

                                              Ends in 4 months

                                              \"Record
                                              Crypto·Liquidation

                                              Record crypto liquidation in 2026?

                                              $70.6K Vol.

                                              $4.3K Liq.

                                              Ends in 4 months

                                              9%

                                              $70.6K Vol.

                                              $4.3K Liq.

                                              Ends in 4 months

                                              \"Total
                                              Crypto·Hack

                                              Total crypto hack value in 2026?

                                              $83.0K Vol.

                                              $2.4K Liq.

                                              1

                                              Ends in 4 months

                                              89%

                                              >$2B

                                              $83.0K Vol.

                                              $2.4K Liq.

                                              1

                                              Ends in 4 months

                                              \"Trump

                                              Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto by ___?

                                              $116K Vol.

                                              $1.6K Liq.

                                              19

                                              Ends in 4 months

                                              2%

                                              $116K Vol.

                                              $1.6K Liq.

                                              19

                                              Ends in 4 months

                                              \"Nothing
                                              Crypto·Satoshi

                                              Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto

                                              $16.6K Vol.

                                              $13.5K Liq.

                                              4

                                              Ends in 4 months

                                              97%

                                              Nothing

                                              $16.6K Vol.

                                              $13.5K Liq.

                                              4

                                              Ends in 4 months

                                              Sort by

                                              Event Status

                                              Frequently Asked Questions

                                              Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Crypto.

                                              Polymarket currently hosts 4171 active markets for Crypto that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $101.0M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

                                              Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto by ___?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

                                              As of today, the most active market is “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 68% chance to ↓ 70,000. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

                                              It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Crypto predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.

                                              Polymarket is accurate more than 94% of the time an entire month before an outcome is definitively known. Prediction markets aggregate wisdom from informed users, often outperforming experts. For more context, view these stats on Polymarket’s accuracy.

                                              Yes. You can treat this page as a live data source and watch how the odds for Crypto shift in real-time. It’s a free way to track market sentiment on major outcomes like “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?” without ever needing to place a trade.

                                              Sign up and fund your account with crypto, credit/debit card, or bank transfer. Browse the Crypto prediction markets, and when you’re ready you can buy shares in your picks.

                                              Market resolution relies on trusted or official data sources. For complete clarity, you can check the “Rules” section on any individual market page like “Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?,” to see the exact criteria and sources used to determine the winner.
                                                \n
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                                                    \n
                                                    \n \n \n \n
                                                    \n\n\n"} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/make_fixtures.py b/make_fixtures.py index 732b5e7..40b2a1b 100644 --- a/make_fixtures.py +++ b/make_fixtures.py @@ -111,6 +111,23 @@ # for the wrong reason, because its only fixture was curl-fetched). "cdp_extension": ("cdp_scraping_browser.html", "https://polymarket.com/predictions/crypto", 5), + # THE FIXTURE THE CLASSIFIER ACTUALLY NEEDS, for the same reason the one + # above is the one the marker checks need: every other event capture here + # is a browser's `page.content()`, and a browser serialises the rendered + # markup FIRST. The bytes the server sends interleave the inlined payload + # much earlier, which is what `scraper_api_client.py` and any HTTP client + # reads — a different document shape from the same URL. + # + # Measured 2026-10-09 on this very page: Next.js inlines its 404 + # TEMPLATE at offset 134,033 in the served bytes and at 511,547 in the + # browser's DOM. The not-found check scanned the first 200,000, so it + # matched a template on a page holding five markets, classified it + # `empty`, and `empty` carries `parse: False` — every row discarded, on + # 12 of the 20 event pages `/predictions` named that day. Eleven browser + # captures could not show it and did not. + "event_served_bytes": ("event_served_bytes.html", + "https://polymarket.com/event/" + "fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537", None), "not_found": ("notfound.html", "https://polymarket.com/event/this-event-does-not-exist-zzz-9999", None), @@ -374,6 +391,36 @@ def _payload_window(payload, keep_skus, keep_foreign=0): totals = re.search(r'"totalCount"\s*:\s*\d+\s*,\s*"hasNextPage"\s*:\s*\w+', payload) if totals: body = body + "," + totals.group(0) + + # CARRIED OVER ON PURPOSE, and for the same reason `keep_foreign` keeps + # the rails: without it the check cannot fail. + # + # Next.js inlines its 404 TEMPLATE — a `"notfound":[…]` branch the router + # would render if the route had 404'd — into the payload of every page + # the site serves. It is data about a page that was NOT rendered, and the + # classifier used to match its wording and call a healthy event page + # `empty`, discarding every row. Trim the template away and no fixture + # can ever exercise that again, so the check guarding it would assert + # something no fixture contains. + # + # Kept as the literal branch rather than reconstructed, so the fixture + # carries the site's own bytes. + # The page ships SEVERAL `"notFound"` keys and only one of them is the + # rendered template: the others are a component reference or the literal + # "$undefined". Take the first whose own text carries the wording, since + # that is the branch the classifier used to match — picking the first key + # found gave a browser capture the component reference, and the fixture + # then held no template at all. + for notfound in re.finditer(r'"notFound"\s*:\s*\[', payload): + start = payload.index("[", notfound.end() - 1) + try: + _branch, end = _DECODER.raw_decode(payload, start) + except ValueError: + continue + if "could not be found" not in payload[start:end]: + continue + body = body + "," + payload[notfound.start():end] + break return body diff --git a/output_writer.py b/output_writer.py index 7b3fc45..96b1ea3 100644 --- a/output_writer.py +++ b/output_writer.py @@ -552,12 +552,29 @@ def save(rows: Sequence[Any], out_prefix: str, fmt: str, # failure, guarded by the README stating the twenty and the canary asserting # it. # -# "no_new_products" stays as the data-side termination condition for -# `--mode events`, whose page 2..N are event pages named by page 1: a page -# whose markets are all already in `seen` ends the walk. "pagination_ -# exhausted" is kept for the family's shape. +# "no_new_products" USED TO BE HERE, as the data-side termination condition +# for `--mode events`. It is gone, and the removal is the point rather than a +# tidy-up. +# +# The comment above it described a fresh-sku rule — "a page whose markets are +# all already in `seen` ends the walk" — and the engines had long since +# stopped doing that; what they actually did was end the walk on a page that +# produced NO rows. The two are not the same rule and the second one is +# indefensible here, because `--mode events` walks a FINITE LIST of event +# URLs that page 1 already named. There is no catalogue to exhaust, so there +# is no data-side ending to detect: the walk is over when the plan is done. +# +# What that cost, reproduced on the code this replaces: one empty event page +# at position 4 of 20 ended the walk, 17 event pages were never fetched, and +# the run reported `status: complete` and exit 0 with `pages_completed: 4 of +# 21` in the same sidecar. Found by a third-party audit; the sidecar had been +# carrying the evidence against itself the whole time. +# +# An event page with no readable markets is now recorded in the sidecar as +# `pages_without_rows` and the walk carries on. "pagination_exhausted" is +# kept for the family's shape. COMPLETE_STOP_REASONS = ("completed", "pagination_exhausted", - "no_new_products", "listing_has_one_page") + "listing_has_one_page") def finish_run(rows: Sequence[Any], out_prefix: str, fmt: str, diff --git a/page_flow.py b/page_flow.py index 55f3986..d536d03 100644 --- a/page_flow.py +++ b/page_flow.py @@ -118,6 +118,26 @@ def payload_answered(html: Optional[str]) -> bool: or '"markets":[' in payload) +def payload_arrived(html: Optional[str]) -> bool: + """Whether the page's own payload arrived AT ALL, markets or not. + + The distinction from `payload_answered` is what the readiness wait is + actually for. That wait exists for one case: the payload was absent and + the DOM is the only thing that can still arrive. Once the payload is + here, waiting and scrolling cannot add a market the server did not send — + this site inlines its markets in the FIRST response, which is the + measurement the fast path is already built on. + + So a payload that arrived carrying no markets is an answer, not a page + that is still painting, and it is answered in a second rather than in + sixty. Before this existed, a URL whose event does not exist spent the + full readiness timeout plus four scroll rounds — measured 2026-10-09 at + 67 s against 8 s — to reach the same exit 4, and every scroll round + logged "added no events (0 -> 0)" while it did so. + """ + return bool(flight_payload(html)) + + def wait_for_count(count: Callable[[str], int], sleep: Callable[[int], None], selector: str, minimum: int, timeout_ms: int, poll_ms: int = 500) -> int: @@ -297,9 +317,20 @@ def counts_as_blocked(state: str) -> bool: def is_unpainted(state: str, html: Optional[str]) -> bool: - """Whether this page is served but has not painted its grid yet.""" + """Whether this page is served but has not painted its grid yet. + + A page whose payload has ALREADY ARRIVED is not unpainted — it is + answered. This site inlines its markets in the first response, so once + the payload is in hand, waiting for a grid that is not coming spends the + full readiness timeout to reach the same conclusion. Measured 2026-10-09 + on an event slug that does not exist: 25s of readiness wait and four + scroll rounds, every round logging "added no events (0 -> 0)", before the + same exit 4 the fast path reaches in eight seconds. + """ if state != "shell": return False + if payload_arrived(html): + return False return served_by_polymarket(html or "") diff --git a/playwright_scraper.py b/playwright_scraper.py index bb30a1b..c18915e 100644 --- a/playwright_scraper.py +++ b/playwright_scraper.py @@ -808,10 +808,18 @@ def _fetch_pages_concurrently(args, pool, specs, concurrency: int): results = [] results_lock = threading.Lock() - # Set when a day comes back with no rows at all. Without it, asking for - # 40 days of a tag that only published on three of them would fetch 37 - # empty ones. Workers check it before taking more work, so at most - # (concurrency - 1) extra fetches are in flight when it trips. + # Kept, and deliberately never set by an empty page. + # + # It arrived from a sibling repo whose pages are consecutive DAYS, where + # "asking for 40 days of a tag that only published on three would fetch + # 37 empty ones" is a real saving. Here the specs are the event URLs page + # 1 named, capped at `--pages - 1`, so that queue cannot contain a page + # worth skipping: the engine already logs "the walk is N page(s) long" + # when `--pages` exceeds what the listing named. The rule saved nothing + # and cost the rest of the walk. + # + # The plumbing stays because a future terminator with a real signal + # behind it belongs here rather than in three copies of a loop. exhausted = threading.Event() def worker(index: int): @@ -835,14 +843,16 @@ def worker(index: int): with results_lock: results.append(outcome) if outcome.ok and not outcome.products: - logger.info("[%s] page %d returned no rows — " - "treating that as the end of the " - "walk and stopping dispatch. On this " - "site that means an event page held " - "no markets, which is either a " - "resolved event or a parse worth " - "looking at.", name, page_num) - exhausted.set() + # Recorded, NOT acted on. Every spec in this + # queue is an event URL page 1 named, so one + # event with no readable markets is a fact about + # that event and not a signal about the queue. + # Setting `exhausted` here stopped dispatch and + # left the rest of the listing unfetched under + # `status: complete` — see the sequential walk. + logger.info("[%s] page %d returned no rows. " + "Recording it; the other event pages " + "are unaffected.", name, page_num) finally: session.close() except Exception: # noqa: BLE001 — a dead worker must not hang the run @@ -1076,16 +1086,22 @@ def _fetch_one_page(session, args, pool, page_num: int, url: Optional[str]) -> P outcome.final_url = session.page.url return outcome - if page_flow.should_parse(state) and page_flow.payload_answered(html): - # THE FAST PATH, and the normal one: the page's own payload already - # names every market this run will write, so there is nothing to wait - # for and nothing to scroll. Skipping both is worth about four - # minutes a page against the sibling-repo flow this was adapted from, - # and costs nothing that was measured — twelve scroll rounds added - # zero events on every listing tried. - logger.info("Page %d shipped its markets in the page payload — " - "parsing it directly (no readiness wait, no scroll).", - page_num) + if page_flow.should_parse(state) and page_flow.payload_arrived(html): + # THE FAST PATH, and the normal one: the page's own payload has + # arrived, so there is nothing to wait for and nothing to scroll. + # Skipping both is worth about four minutes a page against the + # sibling-repo flow this was adapted from, and costs nothing that was + # measured — twelve scroll rounds added zero events on every listing + # tried. + # + # Gated on the payload ARRIVING rather than on it naming markets: a + # payload that arrived with none is an answer, and spending the + # readiness timeout and four scroll rounds on it reached the same + # exit 4 sixty seconds later (see page_flow.payload_arrived). + logger.info("Page %d shipped its payload — parsing it directly (no " + "readiness wait, no scroll)%s.", page_num, + "" if page_flow.payload_answered(html) + else ", and it named no markets") elif page_flow.should_parse(state): selector, threshold = _ready_selector(args), _min_matches(args, html) @@ -1211,6 +1227,10 @@ def _fetch_one_page(session, args, pool, page_num: int, url: Optional[str]) -> P def scrape(args) -> int: outcomes: List[PageOutcome] = [] seen_keys = set() + # Event pages the walk fetched that held no readable markets. A + # fact about those events, recorded for the consumer rather than + # acted on as an end-of-walk signal (see the walk below). + empty_pages: List[int] = [] blocked = False dedupe_key = "sku" stop_reason = "completed" @@ -1335,7 +1355,7 @@ def scrape(args) -> int: logger.info("Fetching %d event page(s) across %d " "workers%s.", len(specs), concurrency, f" over {len(pool)} exit(s)" if pool else "") - rest, unattempted, exhausted = _fetch_pages_concurrently( + rest, unattempted, _exhausted = _fetch_pages_concurrently( args, pool, specs, concurrency) outcomes.extend(rest) failed = [o for o in rest if not o.ok] @@ -1344,10 +1364,12 @@ def scrape(args) -> int: stop_reason = ("page_load_timeout" if worst.load_failed else f"blocked_{worst.blocked_by}") blocked = any(o.blocked_by for o in rest) - elif exhausted: - stop_reason = "no_new_products" elif unattempted: stop_reason = "pages_unattempted" + # `exhausted` is deliberately not consulted: nothing in + # this mode sets it (see _fetch_pages_concurrently). It + # used to map an empty event page to `no_new_products`, + # which `COMPLETE_STOP_REASONS` called a whole run. session = None # already closed elif planned: for index, url in enumerate(planned): @@ -1373,18 +1395,28 @@ def scrape(args) -> int: seen_keys.update(p.sku for p in outcome.products if p.sku is not None) if not outcome.products: - # NOT "no new sku": in this mode every event page - # re-states markets page 1 already named, so a - # fresh-sku test would end the walk on page 2 of - # every healthy run and throw away the deep - # columns the walk exists to fetch. The data-side - # ending here (§7) is a page that produced NO - # rows at all. - logger.info("Event page %s produced no rows at " - "all — treating that as the end of " - "the walk.", url) - stop_reason = "no_new_products" - break + # NOT the end of the walk. This used to `break` + # here, and that was wrong for a reason specific + # to this mode: the event URLs are not addresses + # this run is guessing at, they are a FINITE LIST + # page 1 already named, capped at `--pages - 1`. + # There is no catalogue left to exhaust and + # nothing to save by stopping — the queue is + # exactly as long as the listing's own event list + # — so one event with no readable markets says + # nothing whatever about the nineteen after it. + # + # Reproduced on the code this replaces: a single + # empty page at position 4 left 17 of 20 event + # pages unfetched and the run reported + # `status: complete`, exit 0, with + # `pages_completed: 4 of 21` in the same sidecar. + empty_pages.append(page_num) + logger.info("Event page %s produced no rows. " + "Recording that and carrying on: the " + "remaining event pages are " + "independent URLs page 1 already " + "named.", url) else: seen_keys.update(p.sku for p in first.products if p.sku is not None) @@ -1478,6 +1510,11 @@ def scrape(args) -> int: "jsonld_confirmed_rows": sum(1 for r in all_rows if r.data_source == "flight+jsonld"), "deep_rows": sum(1 for r in all_rows if r.condition_id), + # Event pages that were fetched and held no readable markets. A + # consumer needs this to tell "this event has no markets" from "this + # event was never fetched" — `pages_failed` and the page counts cover + # the second, and nothing covered the first. + "pages_without_rows": sorted(empty_pages), "category": category_from_url(final_url), "locale": locale_of(final_url), # Recorded because a reader comparing two runs needs to know the diff --git a/product_parser.py b/product_parser.py index dbda053..f3d59e4 100644 --- a/product_parser.py +++ b/product_parser.py @@ -1390,21 +1390,43 @@ def served_by_polymarket(html: Optional[str]) -> bool: return any(marker in head for marker in _SITE_ROOT_MARKERS) -# The site's own "this address does not exist", in its own words. An -# UNAMBIGUOUS POSITIVE SIGNAL and therefore checked before any threshold -# (§17's classification-order trap): a real page that happened to reference -# few assets must not read as blocked, and this page is a correct answer to a -# wrong URL rather than a failure. -_NOT_FOUND_MARKERS = ("page not found", "this page could not be found") +# This used to carry two text markers — the site's "page not found" wording — +# described here as an UNAMBIGUOUS POSITIVE SIGNAL. They were neither, and +# §18's rule is the one that settles it: count a candidate marker on a page +# you know is good, and if it appears there it is not a marker, it is a fact +# about the site. +# +# Counted 2026-10-09 against the twenty event pages `/predictions` named, as +# the site serves them: +# +# "this page could not be found" present on 20 of 20, always 8 times +# ...inside the first 200,000 bytes on 17 of 20, always at offset ~134,000 +# ...rendered into the body markup on 0 of 5 checked, bogus pages included +# +# Because Next.js ships its 404 TEMPLATE inside the flight payload of every +# page it serves — a `"notfound":[…]` branch the router would render if the +# route had 404'd. It is data describing a page that was not rendered, and +# matching it classified a healthy event page as `empty`. With `empty` +# carrying `parse: False`, that discarded every row: 12 of the 20 event pages +# were read as "this address does not exist" while holding 5 to 53 markets. +# +# The status is what is left, and it is kept for the case it describes rather +# than for one that was observed. Measured the same day, a slug that does not +# exist answers **HTTP 200** with 617 KB, 4 of 4 — so this function returns +# False on every page this site currently serves, and the docstring that used +# to promise "a real HTTP 404" was wrong. A nonexistent event now falls +# through to `shell`, parses to no rows and exits 4 ("ran fine, found +# nothing"), which is what a bogus listing tag already did. def looks_not_found(html: Optional[str], status: Optional[int] = None) -> bool: - if status == 404: - return True - if not html: - return False - return any(m in html[:_MARKER_PREFIX_BYTES].lower() - for m in _NOT_FOUND_MARKERS) + """True only on an explicit 404 status. NOT OBSERVED on this site. + + No text marker belongs here: every candidate is on the page Polymarket + serves for a URL that works (see above). `html` is taken and ignored so + the signature survives a site that starts answering differently. + """ + return status == 404 # =========================================================================== @@ -1603,30 +1625,40 @@ def detect_page_state(html: Optional[str], status: Optional[int] = None, url: str = "") -> str: """Which of the five states this response is. - `status` is the SECOND positional argument in this family, and in this - one it genuinely carries information: Polymarket answers a slug that does - not exist with a real HTTP 404 and its own "Page not found" page, which - is a correct answer to a wrong URL rather than a failure. + `status` is the SECOND positional argument in this family. + + It used to say here that Polymarket answers a slug that does not exist + with a real HTTP 404 and its own "Page not found" page. Measured + 2026-10-09, both halves are false: a nonexistent slug answers HTTP 200 + (4 of 4), and the "page not found" wording is on every page the site + serves, including the ones holding markets. See looks_not_found. """ if not html: return "blocked" - # 1. The site's own "this does not exist". Unambiguous, and checked - # before anything else including the status, because the 404 page is - # served by Polymarket and would otherwise have to survive every - # marker check below to be recognised. - if looks_not_found(html, status): - return "empty" - - # 2. The site's own data. A page that names markets IS content, whatever - # else is on it — and this is the check that stops a vendor marker in - # a script bundle from overruling a page holding the full grid (§18). + # 1. The site's own data, and it goes FIRST. A page that names markets IS + # content, whatever else is on it — a vendor marker in a script bundle + # (§18), or, as this site turned out to do, a 404 template inlined in + # the payload of every page it serves. + # + # This check used to sit SECOND, behind a not-found text marker that + # fired on 17 of 20 healthy event pages, and the ordering is why that + # mistake was able to cost anything: the signal that PROVES the page + # is good was never consulted, because a weaker one had already + # answered. §17 states the rule as "order the signals by how much they + # prove, not by how cheap they are"; this is that, with the stronger + # signal also being the cheap one. payload = flight_payload(html) if payload and ('"outcomePrices"' in payload or '"markets":[' in payload): return "content" if count_cards(html) >= MIN_CARD_MATCHES: return "content" + # 2. The site's own "this does not exist", by STATUS alone. Nothing this + # site currently serves reaches it — see looks_not_found. + if looks_not_found(html, status): + return "empty" + # 3. Only now, on a page that produced nothing, does a vendor marker get # to say what went wrong. It REFINES the reason for a page the policy # had already given up on rather than deciding for one it had not. diff --git a/puppeteer_scraper.py b/puppeteer_scraper.py index 7e66b42..c79a58c 100644 --- a/puppeteer_scraper.py +++ b/puppeteer_scraper.py @@ -697,14 +697,20 @@ def _fetch_one_page(session, args, pool, page_num: int, outcome.final_url = _current_url(session) return outcome - if page_flow.should_parse(state) and page_flow.payload_answered(html): - # THE FAST PATH, and the normal one: the page's own payload already - # names every market this run will write, so there is nothing to wait - # for and nothing to scroll. Identical to the other two engines by - # construction — the test for it lives in page_flow (§6). - logger.info("Page %d shipped its markets in the page payload — " - "parsing it directly (no readiness wait, no scroll).", - page_num) + if page_flow.should_parse(state) and page_flow.payload_arrived(html): + # THE FAST PATH, and the normal one: the page's own payload has + # arrived, so there is nothing to wait for and nothing to scroll. + # Identical to the other two engines by construction — the test for + # it lives in page_flow (§6). + # + # Gated on the payload ARRIVING rather than on it naming markets: a + # payload that arrived with none is an answer, and spending the + # readiness timeout and four scroll rounds on it reached the same + # exit 4 sixty seconds later (see page_flow.payload_arrived). + logger.info("Page %d shipped its payload — parsing it directly (no " + "readiness wait, no scroll)%s.", page_num, + "" if page_flow.payload_answered(html) + else ", and it named no markets") elif page_flow.should_parse(state): selector, threshold = _ready_selector(args), _min_matches(args, html) @@ -784,6 +790,10 @@ def _fetch_one_page(session, args, pool, page_num: int, def scrape(args) -> int: outcomes: List[PageOutcome] = [] seen_keys = set() + # Event pages the walk fetched that held no readable markets. A + # fact about those events, recorded for the consumer rather than + # acted on as an end-of-walk signal (see the walk below). + empty_pages: List[int] = [] blocked = False stop_reason = "completed" @@ -869,14 +879,25 @@ def scrape(args) -> int: seen_keys.update(p.sku for p in outcome.products if p.sku is not None) if not outcome.products: - # NOT "no new sku": every event page re-states markets - # page 1 already named, so a fresh-sku test would end the - # walk on page 2 of every healthy run and throw away the - # deep columns the walk exists to fetch (§7). - logger.info("Event page %s produced no rows at all — " - "treating that as the end of the walk.", url) - stop_reason = "no_new_products" - break + # NOT the end of the walk. This used to `break` here, and + # that was wrong for a reason specific to this mode: the + # event URLs are not addresses this run is guessing at, + # they are a FINITE LIST page 1 already named, capped at + # `--pages - 1`. There is no catalogue left to exhaust + # and nothing to save by stopping — the queue is exactly + # as long as the listing's own event list — so one event + # with no readable markets says nothing whatever about + # the nineteen after it. + # + # Reproduced on the code this replaces: a single empty + # page at position 4 left 17 of 20 event pages unfetched + # and the run reported `status: complete`, exit 0, with + # `pages_completed: 4 of 21` in the same sidecar. + empty_pages.append(page_num) + logger.info("Event page %s produced no rows. Recording " + "that and carrying on: the remaining event " + "pages are independent URLs page 1 already " + "named.", url) else: seen_keys.update(p.sku for p in first.products if p.sku is not None) @@ -938,6 +959,11 @@ def scrape(args) -> int: "jsonld_confirmed_rows": sum(1 for r in all_rows if r.data_source == "flight+jsonld"), "deep_rows": sum(1 for r in all_rows if r.condition_id), + # Event pages that were fetched and held no readable markets. A + # consumer needs this to tell "this event has no markets" from "this + # event was never fetched" — `pages_failed` and the page counts cover + # the second, and nothing covered the first. + "pages_without_rows": sorted(empty_pages), "category": category_from_url(final_url), "locale": locale_of(final_url), # Byte-identical to the other two engines. A sidecar key that diff --git a/selenium_scraper.py b/selenium_scraper.py index e0c924a..e8a7310 100644 --- a/selenium_scraper.py +++ b/selenium_scraper.py @@ -711,14 +711,20 @@ def _fetch_one_page(session, args, pool, page_num: int, outcome.final_url = _current_url(session) return outcome - if page_flow.should_parse(state) and page_flow.payload_answered(html): - # THE FAST PATH, and the normal one: the page's own payload already - # names every market this run will write, so there is nothing to wait - # for and nothing to scroll. Identical to the other two engines by - # construction — the test for it lives in page_flow (§6). - logger.info("Page %d shipped its markets in the page payload — " - "parsing it directly (no readiness wait, no scroll).", - page_num) + if page_flow.should_parse(state) and page_flow.payload_arrived(html): + # THE FAST PATH, and the normal one: the page's own payload has + # arrived, so there is nothing to wait for and nothing to scroll. + # Identical to the other two engines by construction — the test for + # it lives in page_flow (§6). + # + # Gated on the payload ARRIVING rather than on it naming markets: a + # payload that arrived with none is an answer, and spending the + # readiness timeout and four scroll rounds on it reached the same + # exit 4 sixty seconds later (see page_flow.payload_arrived). + logger.info("Page %d shipped its payload — parsing it directly (no " + "readiness wait, no scroll)%s.", page_num, + "" if page_flow.payload_answered(html) + else ", and it named no markets") elif page_flow.should_parse(state): selector, threshold = _ready_selector(args), _min_matches(args, html) @@ -801,6 +807,10 @@ def _fetch_one_page(session, args, pool, page_num: int, def scrape(args) -> int: outcomes: List[PageOutcome] = [] seen_keys = set() + # Event pages the walk fetched that held no readable markets. A + # fact about those events, recorded for the consumer rather than + # acted on as an end-of-walk signal (see the walk below). + empty_pages: List[int] = [] blocked = False stop_reason = "completed" @@ -885,14 +895,25 @@ def scrape(args) -> int: seen_keys.update(p.sku for p in outcome.products if p.sku is not None) if not outcome.products: - # NOT "no new sku": every event page re-states markets - # page 1 already named, so a fresh-sku test would end the - # walk on page 2 of every healthy run and throw away the - # deep columns the walk exists to fetch (§7). - logger.info("Event page %s produced no rows at all — " - "treating that as the end of the walk.", url) - stop_reason = "no_new_products" - break + # NOT the end of the walk. This used to `break` here, and + # that was wrong for a reason specific to this mode: the + # event URLs are not addresses this run is guessing at, + # they are a FINITE LIST page 1 already named, capped at + # `--pages - 1`. There is no catalogue left to exhaust + # and nothing to save by stopping — the queue is exactly + # as long as the listing's own event list — so one event + # with no readable markets says nothing whatever about + # the nineteen after it. + # + # Reproduced on the code this replaces: a single empty + # page at position 4 left 17 of 20 event pages unfetched + # and the run reported `status: complete`, exit 0, with + # `pages_completed: 4 of 21` in the same sidecar. + empty_pages.append(page_num) + logger.info("Event page %s produced no rows. Recording " + "that and carrying on: the remaining event " + "pages are independent URLs page 1 already " + "named.", url) else: seen_keys.update(p.sku for p in first.products if p.sku is not None) @@ -953,6 +974,11 @@ def scrape(args) -> int: "jsonld_confirmed_rows": sum(1 for r in all_rows if r.data_source == "flight+jsonld"), "deep_rows": sum(1 for r in all_rows if r.condition_id), + # Event pages that were fetched and held no readable markets. A + # consumer needs this to tell "this event has no markets" from "this + # event was never fetched" — `pages_failed` and the page counts cover + # the second, and nothing covered the first. + "pages_without_rows": sorted(empty_pages), "category": category_from_url(final_url), "locale": locale_of(final_url), # Byte-identical to the other two engines. A sidecar key that diff --git a/smoke_test.py b/smoke_test.py index a3820f1..32ec456 100644 --- a/smoke_test.py +++ b/smoke_test.py @@ -89,6 +89,40 @@ from proxy_pool import ProxyPool, mask, to_playwright, split_credentials REPO_ROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)) + +# A directory holding `pyvenv.cfg` is a virtualenv, whatever it is called. +# +# Structural, not by name, and that distinction is the whole value: the name +# is what churns and the marker file is the contract (the same reasoning that +# anchors a parser on a URL pattern rather than a CSS class, applied to a +# directory). `.github/ci_checks.py` already had this; the tree-wide scanners +# in THIS file did not, and the one that skipped `.venv` and `venv` by name +# walked straight into a virtualenv called `.venv-pw` and reported that pip's +# vendored `charset_normalizer` "describes this site". +# +# Correct about the file and useless to the reader — and it is what a new +# user sees from their first `python3 smoke_test.py`, since the README tells +# them to make a virtualenv per engine and says nothing about where. A guard +# people have to argue with on their first command is one they learn to +# suppress. +_VENV_CACHE = {} + + +def _in_virtualenv(path): + """Whether `path` sits inside a virtualenv anywhere under the repo.""" + for parent in pathlib.Path(path).parents: + cached = _VENV_CACHE.get(parent) + if cached is None: + try: + cached = (parent / "pyvenv.cfg").is_file() + except OSError: + cached = False + _VENV_CACHE[parent] = cached + if cached: + return True + if str(parent) == REPO_ROOT: + break + return False ENGINES = ("playwright_scraper", "selenium_scraper", "puppeteer_scraper") SHARED_MODULES = {"page_flow": page_flow, "product_parser": product_parser} @@ -648,6 +682,40 @@ def test_page_state(): ok &= check("...and does not count towards exit 3", page_flow.counts_as_blocked("empty") is False) + # THE 404 TEMPLATE EVERY SERVED PAGE CARRIES, and the reason the two + # text markers that used to live in `looks_not_found` are gone. + # + # Next.js inlines its not-found template — the wording and all — into the + # payload of every page the site serves. Matching that wording classified + # a healthy event page as `empty`, and `empty` carries `parse: False`, so + # every row was discarded while the run reported success. Measured + # 2026-10-09 over the twenty event pages `/predictions` named: the + # template was within the scanned window on 17 of 20, and 12 of 20 held + # markets and were thrown away. The remaining fixtures could not show it, + # because all of them are a BROWSER's `page.content()`, which serialises + # the rendered markup first and pushes the template past the window — + # `event_served_bytes` is the bytes the server actually sends, which is + # what scraper_api_client.py reads. + served_bytes = fixture("event_served_bytes") + ok &= check("the served-bytes fixture really does carry the 404 template", + served_bytes.lower().count("this page could not be found") >= 1) + ok &= check("...and it is still `content`, because it names markets", + detect_page_state(served_bytes, 200, + URLS["event_served_bytes"]) == "content") + ok &= check("...and its rows survive, rather than being discarded", + len(parse_markets(served_bytes, + URLS["event_served_bytes"])) == 5) + ok &= check("no text marker decides not-found — only an explicit 404", + looks_not_found(served_bytes, 200) is False + and looks_not_found(served_bytes, 404) is True) + + # The ORDER is what made that mistake able to cost anything: the signal + # that PROVES the page is good was consulted second, behind a weaker one. + # Pinned so a future edit that reorders them is a decision. + ok &= check("a page naming markets is content even under a 404 status", + detect_page_state(served_bytes, 404, + URLS["event_served_bytes"]) == "content") + # CHROMIUM'S OWN ERROR PAGE, captured through a dead proxy. It carries # `polymarket.com` — the SITE'S OWN HOSTNAME — no vendor # marker of any kind, and ERR_PROXY_CONNECTION_FAILED in a div that no @@ -806,6 +874,8 @@ def test_the_solver_is_not_declared_useless(): continue if ".git" in path.parts or "fixtures_generated" in path.name: continue + if _in_virtualenv(path): + continue if path.name == "smoke_test.py": # This file holds the banned list itself. Skipping it is not a # loophole: every other shipped file is scanned, and the list @@ -1096,8 +1166,15 @@ def test_output_contract(): group("Complete stop reasons") ok &= check("`completed` is complete", "completed" in COMPLETE_STOP_REASONS) - ok &= check("`no_new_products` is complete — the data-side condition", - "no_new_products" in COMPLETE_STOP_REASONS) + # This check used to assert the OPPOSITE, and it was the position the + # engines held: `no_new_products` was complete, as "the data-side + # condition". There is no data-side condition to have in `--mode events` + # — the walk is a finite list of event URLs page 1 named — and treating + # an empty event page as the end of it reported a run that fetched 4 of + # 21 pages as `complete`. Pinned in the new direction so reintroducing + # the reason is a decision rather than a regression. + ok &= check("`no_new_products` is NOT a complete stop reason", + "no_new_products" not in COMPLETE_STOP_REASONS) ok &= check("one page of a one-page listing is complete", "listing_has_one_page" in COMPLETE_STOP_REASONS) ok &= check("a refused batch is NOT a complete stop reason", @@ -1187,8 +1264,8 @@ def run(rows, stop_reason, blocked=False, allow_empty=False): ok &= check("a REFUSED batch is partial, exit 6", code == EXIT_PARTIAL and meta["status"] == "partial") code, meta = run(rows, "no_new_products") - ok &= check("a feed that added nothing new is complete, exit 0", - code == 0 and meta["status"] == "complete") + ok &= check("a walk that stopped on an empty page is PARTIAL, exit 6", + code == EXIT_PARTIAL and meta["status"] == "partial") code, meta = run(rows, "pagination_exhausted") ok &= check("a feed that ran out is complete, exit 0", code == 0 and meta["status"] == "complete") @@ -1744,19 +1821,43 @@ def good(page_num, url, rows=3): ok &= check("...and each kept its own URL", all(str(o.page_num).zfill(2) in o.url for o in ordered)) - # 3. A page with no rows ends dispatch. Without this, asking for 40 - # pages of a listing that holds three fetches 37 empty ones. - def empty_after_4(page_num, url): - return good(page_num, url, rows=0 if page_num >= 4 else 3) + # 3. A page with no rows does NOT end dispatch, and this check used to + # assert the reverse — "an empty page stops dispatch", justified by + # "asking for 40 pages of a listing that holds three fetches 37 empty + # ones". That justification is a sibling repo's, where pages are + # consecutive days and page N+1 is a guess. Here every spec is an + # event URL that page 1 NAMED, the queue is capped at `--pages - 1`, + # and the engine logs how long the walk really is before starting it. + # So the saving did not exist and the cost did: one empty page at + # position 4 left 17 of 20 event pages unfetched, under + # `status: complete` and exit 0. + def empty_at_4(page_num, url): + return good(page_num, url, rows=0 if page_num == 4 else 3) (results, unattempted, exhausted), seen = _run( - list(range(2, 40)), empty_after_4, concurrency=2) - ok &= check("an empty page stops dispatch", exhausted) - ok &= check("...and most of the queue is never fetched", len(seen) < 12) - ok &= check("...with the unfetched pages reported, not counted as failed", - len(unattempted) == 38 - len(seen)) - ok &= check("unattempted pages are page NUMBERS, in order", - unattempted == sorted(unattempted)) + list(range(2, 22)), empty_at_4, concurrency=2) + ok &= check("an empty event page does not stop dispatch", not exhausted) + ok &= check("...so every planned event page is still fetched", + sorted(seen) == list(range(2, 22))) + ok &= check("...and none is left unattempted", unattempted == []) + ok &= check("...while the empty page still comes back as an outcome", + any(o.page_num == 4 and not o.products for o in results)) + + # A page that FAILS is a different thing from a page that is empty, and + # the two must not be conflated: the first is a hole in the data, the + # second is a fact about that event. + def fail_at_4(page_num, url): + o = good(page_num, url) + if page_num == 4: + o.products, o.load_failed = [], True + return o + + (results, unattempted, exhausted), seen = _run( + list(range(2, 12)), fail_at_4, concurrency=2) + ok &= check("a failed page is not reported as ok", + any(o.page_num == 4 and not o.ok for o in results)) + ok &= check("...and does not stop the other event pages either", + sorted(seen) == list(range(2, 12))) # 4. A worker that raises must not hang the run and must not take its # siblings' pages with it. This is the one that would otherwise be @@ -1976,6 +2077,82 @@ def test_module_attributes_exist(skips): return ok +def test_virtualenvs_in_the_tree_are_ignored(): + group("A virtualenv in the working tree is gitignored, whatever its name") + import subprocess + ok = True + # The glob half of this lives in .gitignore and can always be out-named; + # this is the half that cannot. Any directory holding `pyvenv.cfg` IS a + # virtualenv, and an unignored one is a `git add -A` away from being + # committed — which is how this repo's own `.venv-pw` sat untracked and + # unignored while the file listed `.venv`, `venv` and `env`. + # + # Scanning what is THERE rather than asserting patterns, so a venv under + # a name nobody predicted still fails. On a clean checkout there is + # nothing to find and the check says so rather than passing silently + # (a check that starts passing once its input disappears is the failure + # mode this suite keeps meeting). + found = [] + for cfg in pathlib.Path(REPO_ROOT).rglob("pyvenv.cfg"): + if ".git" in cfg.parts: + continue + found.append(cfg.parent) + if not found: + return check("no virtualenv in the tree to check (nothing to report)", + True) + for venv in found: + rel = venv.relative_to(REPO_ROOT) + result = subprocess.run( + ["git", "check-ignore", "-q", str(rel)], + cwd=REPO_ROOT, capture_output=True) + ok &= check("the virtualenv %s/ is gitignored" % rel, + result.returncode == 0) + return ok + + +def test_tree_scanners_skip_virtualenvs(): + group("Every tree-wide scanner skips a virtualenv (structurally)") + ok = True + # Pinned as WIRING rather than by content, because the three scanners + # fail in three different ways and only one of them fails loudly: + # + # describes-this-site flags pip's vendored code -> false FAILURE + # dead-name corpus adopts it as a reader -> false PASS + # banned wording nothing in a venv matches -> no effect today + # + # Only the first is visible from a planted fault, so a control on the + # other two stays green and proves nothing. Asserting that each scanner + # carries the guard is what makes all of them a decision. + source = open(os.path.join(REPO_ROOT, "smoke_test.py"), + encoding="utf-8").read() + tree = ast.parse(source) + for node in ast.walk(tree): + if not isinstance(node, (ast.FunctionDef, ast.AsyncFunctionDef)): + continue + body = ast.get_source_segment(source, node) or "" + if "rglob(" not in body: + continue + if "pyvenv.cfg" in body: + # A scanner whose JOB is to find virtualenvs must walk into + # them. Exempted by what it looks for rather than by name, so + # the exemption cannot be claimed by a scanner that merely + # mentions one. + continue + ok &= check("%s() walks the tree and skips virtualenvs" % node.name, + "_in_virtualenv" in body) + # ASSEMBLED, not written out: this function is itself scanned by + # the loop above, so spelling the names here would make the check + # fail on its own body. Same reason the banned-wording check builds + # its phrases from pieces rather than exempting the file that holds + # them — the file most likely to acquire a stray one is the one + # nobody scans. + name = "ven" + "v" + by_name = ['"' + part + '"' for part in ("." + name, name)] + ok &= check("...and does not skip them by NAME, which is what broke", + not any(n in body for n in by_name)) + return ok + + def test_no_dead_public_names(): group("Every public name in the policy modules has a reader (§17)") ok = True @@ -1999,8 +2176,13 @@ def test_no_dead_public_names(): # how this check first "found" 91 dead names in a healthy module. if path.name.startswith("_"): continue - if any(part in {"worktrees", ".venv", "venv", "build", "dist"} - for part in parts): + if any(part in {"worktrees", "build", "dist"} for part in parts): + continue + # A virtualenv here does not cause a false failure, it causes a false + # PASS: vendored code joins the corpus and can keep a dead name alive + # by coincidence. Recognised by `pyvenv.cfg` rather than by name, for + # the reason given where that helper is defined. + if _in_virtualenv(path): continue scanned.append(path.read_text(encoding="utf-8")) corpus = "\n".join(scanned) @@ -2245,9 +2427,11 @@ def test_no_file_describes_another_site(): ".yaml", ".toml", ".example"): continue - if any(part in {"worktrees", ".venv", "venv", "build", "dist", ".git"} + if any(part in {"worktrees", "build", "dist", ".git"} for part in rel.parts) or path.name.startswith("_"): continue + if _in_virtualenv(path): + continue # The suite names these words in order to ban them, so it cannot be # scanned for them without failing on its own check. if path.name == "smoke_test.py": @@ -2284,6 +2468,7 @@ def test_wording(): and path.suffix in (".py", ".md", ".txt", ".toml", ".yml", ".yaml", ".example") and ".git" not in path.parts + and not _in_virtualenv(path) and path.name != "fixtures_generated.json"] for path in shipped: name = str(path.relative_to(REPO_ROOT)) @@ -2684,6 +2869,8 @@ def main() -> int: ok &= test_concurrency_machinery(skips) ok &= test_engine_parity(skips) ok &= test_module_attributes_exist(skips) + ok &= test_virtualenvs_in_the_tree_are_ignored() + ok &= test_tree_scanners_skip_virtualenvs() ok &= test_no_dead_public_names() ok &= test_no_undefined_names() ok &= test_dockerfile_matches_its_entrypoint()