ALCOFS-R1/index.BAK at master · GM-Ling/ALCOFS-R1 · GitHub

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<title>Alaska Storm Surge Forecasting System (AKSSFS)</title>
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<h1 style="text-align:center">Alaska Storm Surge Forecasting System (AKSSFS)</h1>
<h1 style="text-align:center">阿拉斯加风暴潮预测系统 (in Chinese)</h1>
<h1 style="text-align:center">アラスカ高潮予測システム (in Japanese)</h1>
<p>DISCLAIMER: this model is under development and testing, for study only.</p>
<h2>1. Updates</h2>
<ul type = "square">
<!-- <li>Updated on 05-05-2020: Due to there are not free cores today, the simulation results haven't been updated yet. </li> -->
<li>Updated on 05-15-2020: Due to the computer maintenance from May 15 to 17, during this period the forecast results will not be updated.</li>
<li>Updated on 05-08-2020: Achieved updating the animations automatically once per day at 09:00.</li>
<li>Updated on 05-07-2020: Achieved updating comparison with the latest observational data of St. Michael station automatically.</li>
<li>Updated on 05-02-2020: Achieved updating the simulation results of 4 stations (Red Dog Dock, Prudhoe Bay, Unalakleet, Nome) automatically once per day,
and the latest observed data retrieved from the 4 NOAA stations updated 3 times (07:00, 12:00, 18:00) per day in this page.</li>
<li>Established on 04-28-2020: Testing Version 01, forecast one time per day (starts running at 01:00 everyday automatically).</li>
</ul>
<!--<p>NOTES: The animations (5, 6, 7, 8) and the maximum surface elevation image (9) in this page are updated manually for the present, might not be updated everyday, but it is in plan to set up updating automatically for the future.</p> -->
<h2>2. Forcing boudary conditions for the model</h2>
<p>Forcing 8 harmonic constituents on the open ocean boundaries, 4 semi-diurnal : M2, N2, S2, K2; 4 diurnal : K1, Q1, O1, P1.<br />
Reanalysis wind and ice products: <a href="https://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data/gfsanl/" target="_blank">https://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data/gfsanl/</a>; <br />
Forecast wind and ice products: <a href="https://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/gfs/prod/" target="_blank">https://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/gfs/prod/</a>.<br />
Simulation for 18 days, the first 10 days is using reanalysis met data and the last 8 days using forecast data. Spin up for 5 days, and dt=2s. </p>

<h2>3. Flowchart of the forecasting system</h2>
<img src="images/flowchart.png" alt="hi" class="inline"/>

<h2>4. Mesh with floodplain (nodes: 1,648,088; elements: 3,211,583)</h2>
<p>The mesh is generated by using <a href="https://github.com/CHLNDDEV/OceanMesh2D" target="_blank">OceanMesh2D</a>.</p>
<p>For the parameters of ocean side mesh used in the OceanMesh2D:<br />
min_el=1000, max_el=20000, wl=300, dt=2, grade=0.2, R=2, slp=20, dis=0.35, max_el_ns=1000,
and several sepcify bounding boxes for bays and inlets (Cook Inlet, Bristol Bay, Aleutian Islands, Kotzebue Sound, St. Lawrence Island) are set for min_el=200.<br />
For the floodplain side, there are two floodplains in the mesh,
the first one is located at the north of Alaska, the second one is at Yukon Delta:<br />
for the first one min_el=200, the second one min_el=100 and the other parameters are set the same as ocean side.
</p>
<p>For the bathymetry data, we interpolated the 'topo15_compressed.nc' as a background bathymetry and interpolated the '<a href="https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/southern-alaska-coastal-relief-model" target="_blank">crm_southak.nc</a>' wherever the data is available.
</p>
<img src="images/mesh4_fp_v2.png" alt="hi" class="inline"/>

<h2>5. Ice concentration (5 days forecast)</h2>
<a href="images/icecon_zoomin_5days.gif" target="_blank">Zoom in costal area ([-170 -155 55 71]) by clicking here or the following figure</a>
<a  href="images/icecon_zoomin_5days.gif"><img src="images/icecon_5days.gif"/></a>

<h2>6. Wind speed (5 days forecast)</h2>
<img src="images/wind_speed_5days.gif"  alt="ws" class="inline"/>

<h2>7. Pressure (5 days forecast)</h2>
<img src="images/pressure_5days.gif"  alt="pres" class="inline"/>

<h2>8. Surface elevation (5 days forecast)</h2>
<p>Animetion, 6 hourly output.</p>
<img src="images/eta_5days.gif" alt="eta" class="inline"/>
<!--<img src="images/eta_giam80.gif" alt="eta" style="width:1000px;height:550px;"> -->

<h2>9. Maximum surface elevation during the simulation period</h2>
<a href="images/eta_max_wak.jpg" target="_blank">Zoom in costal area ([-170 -155 55 71]) by clicking here or the following figure</a>
<a  href="images/eta_max_wak.jpg"><img src="images/eta_max.jpg"/></a>

<h2>10. Comparison of water level at different stations </h2>
<p>NOTES: the comparion results started from 8 days before the present date,
in the following plots, including 5 days hindcast validation,
3 days gap forecast results and 5 days forecast results.
Except the St. Michael station, the results of the other stations are updated automatically on the morning of everyday.
The positions of stations are showed in the following figure.</p>
<img src="images/gauges_position.png" alt="nm" class="inline"/>
<h3>Nome Station</h3>
<p>Nome station recovered from 04-29-2020, <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=9468756" target="_blank">https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=9468756</a>.</p>
<img src="images/Mar2020_stna01.png" alt="nm" class="inline"/>

<h3>Red Dog Dock Station</h3>
<a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=9491094" target="_blank">https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=9491094</a>
<img src="images/Mar2020_stna02.png" alt="rdd" class="inline"/>

<h3>Prudhoe Bay Station</h3>
<a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=9497645" target="_blank">https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=9497645</a>
<img src="images/Mar2020_stna03.png" alt="pb" class="inline"/>

<h3>Unalakleet Station（observation data is unavailable）</h3>
<a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=9468333" target="_blank">https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=9468333</a>
<img src="images/Mar2020_stna04.png" alt="un" class="inline"/>

<h3>St. Michael Station</h3>
<p>Gauge data is from JOA Surveys, LLC (<a href="http://joasurveys.com/rtwl/stmichael/" target="_blank">http://joasurveys.com/rtwl/stmichael/</a>), without filtering. </p>
<p>The real time water levels derived by Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R) based tide gauge (AT01) in St. Michael, refer to <a href="https://www.gpsworld.com/a-tidal-shift-monitoring-sea-level-in-the-arctic-using-gnss/"target="_blank">https://www.gpsworld.com/a-tidal-shift-monitoring-sea-level-in-the-arctic-using-gnss/</a>.</p>
<img src="images/Mar2020_stna06.png" alt="hi" class="inline"/>

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  <p><a href="https://github.com/GM-Ling/AKSSFS">AKSSFS</a> is maintained by: Guoming Ling</p>
  <p>This page was generated by <a href="https://pages.github.com/">GitHub Pages</a>.</p>
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