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2 | 2 |
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3 | 3 | # Open-Alpha-Lab |
4 | 4 |
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5 | | -### Out of 401 famous trading edges, three survive — and none of them predicts returns. |
| 5 | +### Out of 450 famous trading edges, three survive — and none of them predicts returns. |
6 | 6 |
|
7 | 7 | That's not a typo. I put every market anomaly, folk strategy and named factor |
8 | 8 | people swear by through the **same brutal protocol**, and publish the verdict: **edge or mirage.** |
9 | 9 |
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10 | | -`401 tested` · `3 survive` · `318 mirages` · `0 forecast returns` |
| 10 | +`450 tested` · `3 survive` · `367 mirages` · `0 forecast returns` |
11 | 11 |
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12 | 12 | ***Most are mirages. The honest write-up of why is the point — and the survivors size risk, they don't see the future.*** |
13 | 13 |
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@@ -51,7 +51,7 @@ Almost everything ends up bottom-right; three chips are green — and none of th |
51 | 51 | > (The static image above never gets less readable; the interactive page is where it scales.) |
52 | 52 |
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53 | 53 | The counts, the mortality by family of idea, and the five lessons the bench keeps |
54 | | -teaching are in **[What 400 teardowns taught us](docs/bench.md)**. |
| 54 | +teaching are in **[What 450 teardowns taught us](docs/bench.md)**. |
55 | 55 |
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56 | 56 | --- |
57 | 57 |
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@@ -477,6 +477,55 @@ The full table below is the single source of truth (it's what the map and the li |
477 | 477 | | **[399](studies/399-kalshi-efficiency/)** | **Kalshi-Efficiency** | Is there a real, harvestable mispricing? |  |  | |
478 | 478 | | **[400](studies/400-patent-intensity/)** | **Patent-Intensity** | Do patent-heavy firms earn a real innovation premium? |  |  | |
479 | 479 | | **[401](studies/401-signal-stacking/)** | **Signal-Stacking** | Does stacking 50 weak signals manufacture a real edge — or just luck in Greek letters? |  |  | |
| 480 | +| **[402](studies/402-engulfing-pattern/)** | **Engulfing-Pattern** | Does the most-taught reversal — the engulfing candle — actually predict the next day? |  |  | |
| 481 | +| **[403](studies/403-hammer-hanging-man/)** | **Hammer-Hanging-Man** | Does a long lower wick really mark a floor? |  |  | |
| 482 | +| **[404](studies/404-shooting-star/)** | **Shooting-Star** | Does the shooting star call the top? |  |  | |
| 483 | +| **[405](studies/405-doji-reversal/)** | **Doji-Reversal** | Does the doji's indecision precede a reversal? |  |  | |
| 484 | +| **[406](studies/406-harami-pattern/)** | **Harami-Pattern** | Does the harami inside-bar flip the trend? |  |  | |
| 485 | +| **[407](studies/407-dark-cloud-piercing/)** | **Dark-Cloud-Piercing** | Do the dark-cloud / piercing-line twins deliver? |  |  | |
| 486 | +| **[408](studies/408-three-black-crows/)** | **Three-Black-Crows** | Three black crows = a crash incoming? |  |  | |
| 487 | +| **[409](studies/409-tweezer-tops-bottoms/)** | **Tweezer-Tops-Bottoms** | Do two aligned wicks mark the turn? |  |  | |
| 488 | +| **[410](studies/410-cup-and-handle/)** | **Cup-and-Handle** | Does O'Neil's cup-with-handle beat buy-and-hold? |  |  | |
| 489 | +| **[411](studies/411-ascending-triangle/)** | **Ascending-Triangle** | Does the ascending triangle really break upward? |  |  | |
| 490 | +| **[412](studies/412-symmetrical-triangle/)** | **Symmetrical-Triangle** | A symmetrical triangle — a real figure or a 50/50 coin flip? |  |  | |
| 491 | +| **[413](studies/413-bull-flag/)** | **Bull-Flag** | Is the bull flag a reliable continuation pattern? |  |  | |
| 492 | +| **[414](studies/414-falling-wedge/)** | **Falling-Wedge** | Is the falling wedge actually bullish? |  |  | |
| 493 | +| **[415](studies/415-triple-top-bottom/)** | **Triple-Top-Bottom** | Do three failures at one level make a signal? |  |  | |
| 494 | +| **[416](studies/416-rounding-bottom/)** | **Rounding-Bottom** | Does the saucer base signal accumulation? |  |  | |
| 495 | +| **[417](studies/417-island-reversal/)** | **Island-Reversal** | Does the gap-island reversal exist statistically? |  |  | |
| 496 | +| **[418](studies/418-money-flow-index/)** | **Money-Flow-Index** | Does the volume-weighted RSI beat the plain RSI? |  |  | |
| 497 | +| **[419](studies/419-chaikin-money-flow/)** | **Chaikin-Money-Flow** | Does accumulation/distribution lead price? |  |  | |
| 498 | +| **[420](studies/420-awesome-oscillator/)** | **Awesome-Oscillator** | Does Bill Williams' AO beat a plain MACD? |  |  | |
| 499 | +| **[421](studies/421-williams-alligator/)** | **Williams-Alligator** | Does the waking alligator catch trends? |  |  | |
| 500 | +| **[422](studies/422-elder-ray/)** | **Elder-Ray** | Does Dr Elder's Bull/Bear Power have an edge? |  |  | |
| 501 | +| **[423](studies/423-force-index/)** | **Force-Index** | Does Elder's Force Index flag reversals? |  |  | |
| 502 | +| **[424](studies/424-ease-of-movement/)** | **Ease-of-Movement** | Are "effortless" price moves tradable? |  |  | |
| 503 | +| **[425](studies/425-detrended-price-oscillator/)** | **Detrended-Price-Oscillator** | Does the DPO isolate tradable cycles? |  |  | |
| 504 | +| **[426](studies/426-know-sure-thing/)** | **Know-Sure-Thing** | Is Pring's "Know Sure Thing" a sure thing? |  |  | |
| 505 | +| **[427](studies/427-rate-of-change/)** | **Rate-of-Change** | Does the oldest momentum tool (ROC) survive costs? |  |  | |
| 506 | +| **[428](studies/428-stochastic-rsi/)** | **Stochastic-RSI** | Does stacking stochastics on RSI add signal or just noise? |  |  | |
| 507 | +| **[429](studies/429-mass-index/)** | **Mass-Index** | Does the Mass Index "range bulge" call a reversal? |  |  | |
| 508 | +| **[430](studies/430-klinger-oscillator/)** | **Klinger-Oscillator** | Does Klinger's long-term volume lead price? |  |  | |
| 509 | +| **[431](studies/431-schaff-trend-cycle/)** | **Schaff-Trend-Cycle** | Does a "faster MACD" keep its promise? |  |  | |
| 510 | +| **[432](studies/432-hull-moving-average/)** | **Hull-Moving-Average** | Does the lag-free HMA cut false signals? |  |  | |
| 511 | +| **[433](studies/433-kama-adaptive/)** | **Kaufman-Adaptive-MA** | Does adapting to volatility beat a fixed SMA? |  |  | |
| 512 | +| **[434](studies/434-dema-tema/)** | **DEMA-TEMA** | Are double/triple-smoothed moving averages worth it? |  |  | |
| 513 | +| **[435](studies/435-guppy-mma/)** | **Guppy-MMA** | Does Guppy's ribbon reveal conviction? |  |  | |
| 514 | +| **[436](studies/436-ma-envelopes/)** | **MA-Envelopes** | Do percent envelopes beat Bollinger Bands? |  |  | |
| 515 | +| **[437](studies/437-donchian-breakout/)** | **Donchian-Breakout** | Does the 20-day channel hold up on its own (sans Turtle)? |  |  | |
| 516 | +| **[438](studies/438-triple-ma-crossover/)** | **Triple-MA-Crossover** | Do three moving averages beat two? |  |  | |
| 517 | +| **[439](studies/439-linear-regression-channel/)** | **Linear-Regression-Channel** | Does the regression slope beat a moving average? |  |  | |
| 518 | +| **[440](studies/440-pivot-points/)** | **Floor-Trader-Pivots** | Do floor-trader pivot points hold as support/resistance? |  |  | |
| 519 | +| **[441](studies/441-camarilla-pivots/)** | **Camarilla-Pivots** | Does the Camarilla variant have a measurable edge? |  |  | |
| 520 | +| **[442](studies/442-anchored-vwap/)** | **Anchored-VWAP** | Does anchoring VWAP to an event create a price magnet? |  |  | |
| 521 | +| **[443](studies/443-volume-profile-poc/)** | **Volume-Profile-POC** | Does price return to the volume-profile point of control? |  |  | |
| 522 | +| **[444](studies/444-dow-theory/)** | **Dow-Theory** | Does the Industrials/Transports confirmation actually work? |  |  | |
| 523 | +| **[445](studies/445-elliott-wave/)** | **Elliott-Wave** | Do Elliott's five waves predict anything out-of-sample? |  |  | |
| 524 | +| **[446](studies/446-wyckoff-method/)** | **Wyckoff-Method** | Are Wyckoff accumulation/distribution phases detectable? |  |  | |
| 525 | +| **[447](studies/447-gann-angles/)** | **Gann-Angles** | Do Gann 1×1 angles have any predictive power? |  |  | |
| 526 | +| **[448](studies/448-point-and-figure/)** | **Point-and-Figure** | Do P&F column-count price targets get hit? |  |  | |
| 527 | +| **[449](studies/449-renko-charts/)** | **Renko-Charts** | Does Renko-brick filtering improve a moving-average crossover? |  |  | |
| 528 | +| **[450](studies/450-andrews-pitchfork/)** | **Andrews-Pitchfork** | Does Andrews' pitchfork channel price? |  |  | |
480 | 529 |
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481 | 530 | </details> |
482 | 531 |
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