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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<title>Research — Emile Djohi</title>
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<body>
<nav>
<div class="nav-inner">
<a href="index.html" class="nav-brand">Emile <span>Djohi</span></a>
<ul class="nav-links">
<li><a href="index.html">Home</a></li>
<li><a href="research.html" class="active">Research</a></li>
<li><a href="talks.html">Talks</a></li>
<li><a href="teaching.html">Teaching</a></li>
<li><a href="athletics.html">Athletics</a></li>
<li><a href="cv.html">CV</a></li>
</ul>
<div class="hamburger"><span></span><span></span><span></span></div>
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<div class="page-hero">
<div class="page-hero-inner">
<div class="section-label">Scholarship</div>
<h1>Research & Working Papers</h1>
<p>Empirical work at the intersection of climate science, political economy, development, and public health.</p>
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<!-- WORKING PAPERS -->
<section class="papers-section">
<div class="section-inner">
<div class="section-label" style="color:var(--gold)">Working Papers & Projects</div>
<h2 class="section-title">Current <em>Projects</em></h2>
<p class="section-sub">All papers combine large-scale panel datasets, causal inference methods, and policy-relevant empirical designs.</p>
<div class="paper-list fade-up">
<!-- 1 -->
<div class="paper-item">
<div class="paper-year">2025<br><span style="font-size:0.7rem;opacity:0.6">Ongoing</span></div>
<div class="paper-content">
<h3>Climate Extremes and Economic Stressors as Predictors of Conflict in Central America (2012–2024)</h3>
<p>20-country monthly panel integrating <strong style="color:rgba(255,255,255,0.9)">ERA5</strong> climate reanalysis, <strong style="color:rgba(255,255,255,0.9)">SPEI</strong> drought indices, <strong style="color:rgba(255,255,255,0.9)">MLEED</strong>, <strong style="color:rgba(255,255,255,0.9)">ACLED</strong>, and <strong style="color:rgba(255,255,255,0.9)">FAO</strong> food-price series. Applies ElasticNet regularization and a mediation framework to decompose climate-to-conflict pathways. <em>With Erik Wibbels (UPenn).</em></p>
<div class="data-badges">
<span class="data-badge" title="ERA5: ECMWF global climate reanalysis dataset (hourly data, 31km resolution) covering temperature, precipitation, wind since 1940">ERA5</span>
<span class="data-badge" title="SPEI: Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index — multi-scale drought indicator combining precipitation and temperature">SPEI</span>
<span class="data-badge" title="MLEED: Machine Learning Event and Entity Dataset — high-frequency political event data coded from local news using NLP">MLEED</span>
<span class="data-badge" title="ACLED: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project — real-time data on political violence and protest events globally">ACLED</span>
<span class="data-badge" title="FAO Food Price Index: monthly measure of international prices of a basket of food commodities">FAO Food Prices</span>
<span class="data-badge" title="EM-DAT: International Disaster Database maintained by CRED, documenting natural and technological disasters worldwide">EM-DAT</span>
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</div>
<div class="paper-tag">Working Paper</div>
</div>
<!-- 2 -->
<div class="paper-item">
<div class="paper-year">2025–<br><span style="font-size:0.7rem;opacity:0.6">2026</span></div>
<div class="paper-content">
<h3><a href="https://web.sas.upenn.edu/mlp-devlab/" target="_blank">Machine Learning for Peace (MLP) — Event Data Infrastructure</a></h3>
<p>Contributed to a project scraping and processing over <strong style="color:rgba(255,255,255,0.9)">120 million news articles</strong> from local outlets across 60+ developing countries to generate high-frequency event data on political and environmental dynamics. Contribution focused on web scraping and count verification to ensure data integrity. <em>With Erik Wibbels (UPenn).</em></p>
<div class="data-badges">
<span class="data-badge" title="MLP: Machine Learning for Peace — UPenn DevLab project using NLP to extract structured political event data from local news sources across the Global South">MLP</span>
<span class="data-badge" title="MLEED: Machine Learning Event and Entity Dataset — the structured output dataset produced by the MLP pipeline">MLEED</span>
</div>
<a href="https://web.sas.upenn.edu/mlp-devlab/" target="_blank" class="paper-link">MLP Website ↗</a>
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<div class="paper-tag">Project</div>
</div>
<!-- 3 -->
<div class="paper-item">
<div class="paper-year">2025</div>
<div class="paper-content">
<h3><a href="https://phys.org/news/2025-07-global-climate-atlas-tool-impacts.html" target="_blank">Climate Change, Agriculture, and Migration in Central America</a></h3>
<p>Examines how <strong style="color:rgba(255,255,255,0.9)">El Niño and La Niña cycles</strong> affect agricultural productivity and food prices across the Dry Corridor, and how resulting climate shocks and environmentally motivated violence shape migration flows toward the U.S. border. Contribution: descriptive figures on temporal and geographic variation in environmental events. <em>With Erik Wibbels, Irina Marinov, Anna Cabre & Jeremy Springman (UPenn).</em></p>
<div class="data-badges">
<span class="data-badge" title="ENSO: El Niño–Southern Oscillation — a recurring climate pattern causing shifts in sea surface temperatures that drive regional drought and flood cycles">ENSO/El Niño</span>
<span class="data-badge" title="ERA5: ECMWF global climate reanalysis — used here for temperature and precipitation at agricultural zone level">ERA5</span>
<span class="data-badge" title="Global Climate Security Atlas: Marinov Lab (Penn EII) tool mapping climate vulnerability indicators for policy use">Climate Security Atlas</span>
</div>
<div style="display:flex; gap:0.5rem; flex-wrap:wrap; margin-top:0.5rem;">
<a href="https://phys.org/news/2025-07-global-climate-atlas-tool-impacts.html" target="_blank" class="paper-link">Phys.org Coverage ↗</a>
<a href="https://bpb-us-w2.wpmucdn.com/web.sas.upenn.edu/dist/4/872/files/2025/06/KleinmanReport_June2025.pdf" target="_blank" class="paper-link">Kleinman Report ↗</a>
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<div class="paper-tag">Project</div>
</div>
<!-- 4 -->
<div class="paper-item">
<div class="paper-year">2025</div>
<div class="paper-content">
<h3><a href="https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/w2kmc_v1" target="_blank">The Credibility Revolution in Political Science</a></h3>
<p>Assisted with data collection and validation for a study on replication practices and open science norms, including coding replication file policies across <strong style="color:rgba(255,255,255,0.9)">175 journals</strong> and helping validate the analysis code. <em>With Guy Grossman (UPenn) and collaborators.</em></p>
<a href="https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/w2kmc_v1" target="_blank" class="paper-link">View on SocArXiv ↗</a>
</div>
<div class="paper-tag">Project</div>
</div>
<!-- 5 -->
<div class="paper-item">
<div class="paper-year">2025<br><span style="font-size:0.7rem;opacity:0.6">Ongoing</span></div>
<div class="paper-content">
<h3>School- and Community-Based Intervention Against Sexual Violence in Liberia</h3>
<p>Cluster-randomized evaluation across <strong style="color:rgba(255,255,255,0.9)">150 school-community dyads</strong> (2,160 girls, 1,187 caregivers). Conducted high-frequency data quality checks (HFCs) for baseline and endline surveys; monitored safeguarding trigger variables ensuring 26 sensitive disclosures were escalated under the differentiated referral protocol; identified instrument assignment errors across 8 schools corrected prior to endline. <em>With Guy Grossman (UPenn) & IPA/WHI.</em></p>
<div class="data-badges">
<span class="data-badge" title="HFC: High-Frequency Checks — systematic real-time validation of survey data during field collection to catch errors, inconsistencies, and enumerator issues early">HFC</span>
<span class="data-badge" title="IPA: Innovations for Poverty Action — research NGO specializing in RCT design and field implementation in low-income countries">IPA</span>
</div>
</div>
<div class="paper-tag">Field Project</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- DATA GLOSSARY -->
<section>
<div class="section-inner">
<div class="section-label">Data Sources</div>
<h2 class="section-title">Key Datasets <em>Explained</em></h2>
<p class="section-sub">A guide to the primary data infrastructure underlying my research projects.</p>
<div style="display:grid; grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit, minmax(300px, 1fr)); gap:1.5rem;" class="fade-up">
<div class="skill-group">
<div class="skill-group-label">MLP — Machine Learning for Peace</div>
<p style="font-size:0.85rem; color:var(--text-muted); line-height:1.7;">A UPenn DevLab project that scrapes and processes news from 120M+ articles across 60+ developing countries using NLP pipelines to generate high-frequency, structured event data on political violence, protest, and environmental dynamics — filling gaps left by Western-centric data sources.</p>
</div>
<div class="skill-group">
<div class="skill-group-label">MLEED — Machine Learning Event & Entity Dataset</div>
<p style="font-size:0.85rem; color:var(--text-muted); line-height:1.7;">The structured output of the MLP pipeline — a high-frequency political event dataset coded from local-language news, covering protest, violence, and governance events across the Global South at sub-national resolution.</p>
</div>
<div class="skill-group">
<div class="skill-group-label">ACLED — Armed Conflict Location & Event Data</div>
<p style="font-size:0.85rem; color:var(--text-muted); line-height:1.7;">A globally recognized real-time dataset tracking political violence and protest events worldwide, coded from media reports and local sources. Provides precise geo-coded event data at the incident level, used here to validate and complement MLEED for Central America.</p>
</div>
<div class="skill-group">
<div class="skill-group-label">ERA5 — ECMWF Climate Reanalysis</div>
<p style="font-size:0.85rem; color:var(--text-muted); line-height:1.7;">The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' global climate reanalysis product, providing hourly data at ~31km resolution on temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity, and 200+ variables back to 1940. Used to extract climate shocks at the administrative-unit level.</p>
</div>
<div class="skill-group">
<div class="skill-group-label">SPEI — Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index</div>
<p style="font-size:0.85rem; color:var(--text-muted); line-height:1.7;">A multi-scale drought index that combines precipitation and temperature into a single drought severity measure, allowing comparison across regions and time scales (1–48 months). Captures both drought onset and recovery, making it ideal for linking climate stress to conflict and food security.</p>
</div>
<div class="skill-group">
<div class="skill-group-label">EM-DAT — International Disaster Database</div>
<p style="font-size:0.85rem; color:var(--text-muted); line-height:1.7;">Maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) at UCLouvain, EM-DAT records natural and technological disasters globally since 1900, including deaths, affected populations, and economic damages — used here to capture extreme weather events beyond standard climate indices.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- METHODS -->
<section style="background:var(--navy); padding:70px 2rem;">
<div class="section-inner">
<div class="section-label" style="color:var(--gold)">Methodology</div>
<h2 class="section-title" style="color:var(--white); margin-bottom:3rem">Methods & <em>Data</em></h2>
<div style="display:grid; grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit, minmax(240px, 1fr)); gap:1.5px; background:rgba(200,151,58,0.1);">
<div style="background:rgba(255,255,255,0.05); padding:2rem;">
<div style="color:var(--gold); font-size:0.7rem; font-weight:600; letter-spacing:0.12em; text-transform:uppercase; margin-bottom:1rem;">Econometric Methods</div>
<ul style="list-style:none; display:flex; flex-direction:column; gap:0.5rem;">
<li style="color:rgba(255,255,255,0.75); font-size:0.875rem;">Panel Fixed Effects</li>
<li style="color:rgba(255,255,255,0.75); font-size:0.875rem;">Distributed-Lag Models</li>
<li style="color:rgba(255,255,255,0.75); font-size:0.875rem;">Mediation Analysis</li>
<li style="color:rgba(255,255,255,0.75); font-size:0.875rem;">Interaction & Threshold Frameworks</li>
<li style="color:rgba(255,255,255,0.75); font-size:0.875rem;">Causal Inference (Quasi-experimental)</li>
<li style="color:rgba(255,255,255,0.75); font-size:0.875rem;">ElasticNet Regularization</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div style="background:rgba(255,255,255,0.05); padding:2rem;">
<div style="color:var(--gold); font-size:0.7rem; font-weight:600; letter-spacing:0.12em; text-transform:uppercase; margin-bottom:1rem;">Geospatial & ML</div>
<ul style="list-style:none; display:flex; flex-direction:column; gap:0.5rem;">
<li style="color:rgba(255,255,255,0.75); font-size:0.875rem;">Automated Geospatial Extraction</li>
<li style="color:rgba(255,255,255,0.75); font-size:0.875rem;">Satellite & Remote Sensing Data</li>
<li style="color:rgba(255,255,255,0.75); font-size:0.875rem;">NLP Entity Extraction (GPT-4, Gemini)</li>
<li style="color:rgba(255,255,255,0.75); font-size:0.875rem;">Machine Learning for Event Data</li>
<li style="color:rgba(255,255,255,0.75); font-size:0.875rem;">QGIS & Python Geospatial Workflows</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<div class="contact-strip">
<h2>Interested in Collaborating?</h2>
<p>I welcome inquiries about joint research projects and data partnerships.</p>
<div class="contact-links">
<a href="https://pdri-devlab.upenn.edu/bio/emile-honaminto-virgile-djohi/" target="_blank" class="contact-link primary">PDRI-DevLab Profile</a>
<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/djohi-emile-professional-profile-001/" target="_blank" class="contact-link">LinkedIn</a>
<a href="https://web.sas.upenn.edu/mlp-devlab/" target="_blank" class="contact-link">MLP Website</a>
<a href="mailto:djohi@upenn.edu" class="contact-link">djohi@upenn.edu</a>
</div>
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<footer>© 2026 Emile Honaminto Virgile Djohi · University of Pennsylvania</footer>
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