diff --git a/apps/gittensory-ui/src/components/site/app-panels/slop-band-calibration-card-model.ts b/apps/gittensory-ui/src/components/site/app-panels/slop-band-calibration-card-model.ts
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..ca86fb3a0
--- /dev/null
+++ b/apps/gittensory-ui/src/components/site/app-panels/slop-band-calibration-card-model.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+// Slop-band calibration analytics card model (#2196). UI-only display slice: the card consumes a slop-band
+// calibration shape assumed present on the operator-dashboard payload (predicted slop band vs. realized
+// merge/close outcome, from the stats feed — src/review/stats.ts). Types + the pure ordering/format helpers live
+// here (not in the .tsx) so the component file exports only components (react-refresh/only-export-components).
+// Public/private boundary: bands only — never a raw credibility score.
+
+import type { Status } from "@/components/site/control-primitives";
+
+/** The predicted slop bands, cleanest → highest, in display order. */
+export type SlopBand = "clean" | "low" | "elevated" | "high";
+
+/** One band's calibration row: how many PRs the gate predicted in this band and how they actually resolved. */
+export interface SlopBandCalibrationRow {
+  band: SlopBand;
+  /** PRs the gate predicted in this band over the window. */
+  predictedCount: number;
+  /** Realized merge rate (0..1): share of this band's PRs that ended up merged — the calibration signal. */
+  realizedMergeRate: number;
+  /** Per-bucket outcome counts for the MiniSparkbar. */
+  distribution: number[];
+}
+
+/** The slop-band calibration slice delivered on the operator-dashboard payload. Public-safe bands only. */
+export interface SlopBandCalibrationReport {
+  rows: SlopBandCalibrationRow[];
+  /** Rolling measurement window, in days. */
+  windowDays: number;
+}
+
+const BAND_ORDER: readonly SlopBand[] = ["clean", "low", "elevated", "high"];
+
+const BAND_TONE: Record<SlopBand, Status> = {
+  clean: "ok",
+  low: "info",
+  elevated: "warn",
+  high: "blocked",
+};
+
+/** Order rows cleanest → highest band, ignoring the payload's arrival order. Pure (returns a new array). */
+export function orderSlopBands(rows: readonly SlopBandCalibrationRow[]): SlopBandCalibrationRow[] {
+  return [...rows].sort((a, b) => BAND_ORDER.indexOf(a.band) - BAND_ORDER.indexOf(b.band));
+}
+
+/** StatusPill tone for a band — mirrors the slop-band tone vocabulary used across the maintainer dashboard. */
+export function toneForSlopBand(band: SlopBand): Status {
+  return BAND_TONE[band];
+}
+
+/** Format a 0..1 merge rate as a whole-number percentage. */
+export function formatMergeRate(rate: number): string {
+  return `${Math.round(rate * 100)}%`;
+}
diff --git a/apps/gittensory-ui/src/components/site/app-panels/slop-band-calibration-card.test.tsx b/apps/gittensory-ui/src/components/site/app-panels/slop-band-calibration-card.test.tsx
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..db1012938
--- /dev/null
+++ b/apps/gittensory-ui/src/components/site/app-panels/slop-band-calibration-card.test.tsx
@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+import { render, screen } from "@testing-library/react";
+import { describe, expect, it } from "vitest";
+
+import { SlopBandCalibrationCard } from "@/components/site/app-panels/slop-band-calibration-card";
+import {
+  formatMergeRate,
+  orderSlopBands,
+  toneForSlopBand,
+  type SlopBandCalibrationRow,
+} from "@/components/site/app-panels/slop-band-calibration-card-model";
+
+const rows: SlopBandCalibrationRow[] = [
+  { band: "high", predictedCount: 4, realizedMergeRate: 0.1, distribution: [1, 1, 2] },
+  { band: "clean", predictedCount: 40, realizedMergeRate: 0.95, distribution: [10, 12, 18] },
+  { band: "elevated", predictedCount: 9, realizedMergeRate: 0.45, distribution: [3, 3, 3] },
+  { band: "low", predictedCount: 22, realizedMergeRate: 0.8, distribution: [7, 8, 7] },
+];
+
+describe("slop-band model", () => {
+  it("orders bands cleanest → highest regardless of the payload's arrival order", () => {
+    expect(orderSlopBands(rows).map((r) => r.band)).toEqual(["clean", "low", "elevated", "high"]);
+  });
+
+  it("maps bands to tones and formats the merge rate as a percentage", () => {
+    expect(toneForSlopBand("clean")).toBe("ok");
+    expect(toneForSlopBand("high")).toBe("blocked");
+    expect(formatMergeRate(0.95)).toBe("95%");
+  });
+});
+
+describe("SlopBandCalibrationCard", () => {
+  it("renders a row per band with predicted counts and realized rates (all-bands-present arm)", () => {
+    render(<SlopBandCalibrationCard report={{ rows, windowDays: 30 }} />);
+    expect(screen.getByText("Slop-band calibration")).toBeTruthy();
+    expect(screen.getByText("30-day window")).toBeTruthy();
+    expect(screen.getByText("clean")).toBeTruthy();
+    expect(screen.getByText("high")).toBeTruthy();
+    expect(screen.getByText("95%")).toBeTruthy();
+    expect(screen.getByText("40")).toBeTruthy();
+  });
+
+  it("renders a band with zero predicted PRs (one-empty-band case)", () => {
+    render(
+      <SlopBandCalibrationCard
+        report={{
+          rows: [{ band: "high", predictedCount: 0, realizedMergeRate: 0, distribution: [] }],
+          windowDays: 7,
+        }}
+      />,
+    );
+    expect(screen.getByText("high")).toBeTruthy();
+    expect(screen.getByText("0")).toBeTruthy();
+    expect(screen.getByText("7-day window")).toBeTruthy();
+  });
+
+  it("renders a graceful EmptyState when there is no data (no-data arm)", () => {
+    render(<SlopBandCalibrationCard report={{ rows: [], windowDays: 30 }} />);
+    expect(screen.getByText("Slop-band calibration not yet available")).toBeTruthy();
+  });
+});
diff --git a/apps/gittensory-ui/src/components/site/app-panels/slop-band-calibration-card.tsx b/apps/gittensory-ui/src/components/site/app-panels/slop-band-calibration-card.tsx
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..3a7e9ca52
--- /dev/null
+++ b/apps/gittensory-ui/src/components/site/app-panels/slop-band-calibration-card.tsx
@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+import { MiniSparkbar, Stat, StatusPill } from "@/components/site/control-primitives";
+import { EmptyState } from "@/components/site/state-views";
+
+import {
+  formatMergeRate,
+  orderSlopBands,
+  toneForSlopBand,
+  type SlopBandCalibrationReport,
+} from "./slop-band-calibration-card-model";
+
+/** Self-host analytics card (#2196): slop-band calibration — for each predicted slop band, how many PRs the gate
+ *  put there and how they actually resolved (realized merge rate), so a maintainer can see whether the slop
+ *  predictor is well-calibrated (cleaner bands should merge more, higher bands less). Public-safe bands only — no
+ *  raw credibility scores. UI-only display slice; the calibration shape is assumed present on the operator-
+ *  dashboard payload, so absence renders a graceful "not yet available" EmptyState. */
+export function SlopBandCalibrationCard({ report }: { report?: SlopBandCalibrationReport }) {
+  if (!report || report.rows.length === 0) {
+    return (
+      <EmptyState
+        title="Slop-band calibration not yet available"
+        description="This appears once slop-band calibration data is present on the dashboard payload."
+      />
+    );
+  }
+  const rows = orderSlopBands(report.rows);
+  return (
+    <section className="rounded-token border border-border bg-transparent p-5">
+      <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center justify-between gap-3">
+        <div>
+          <h2 className="font-display text-token-lg font-semibold">Slop-band calibration</h2>
+          <p className="mt-1 text-token-xs text-muted-foreground">
+            Predicted slop band vs. realized merge outcome. Public-safe bands only — no raw scores.
+          </p>
+        </div>
+        <StatusPill status="info">{`${report.windowDays}-day window`}</StatusPill>
+      </div>
+      <div className="mt-4 space-y-3">
+        {rows.map((row) => (
+          <div
+            key={row.band}
+            className="flex flex-wrap items-center justify-between gap-3 rounded-token border border-border/60 p-3"
+          >
+            <StatusPill status={toneForSlopBand(row.band)}>{row.band}</StatusPill>
+            <Stat
+              label="Predicted"
+              value={String(row.predictedCount)}
+              hint={<span className="text-muted-foreground">PRs in band</span>}
+            />
+            <Stat
+              label="Realized merge rate"
+              value={formatMergeRate(row.realizedMergeRate)}
+              hint={<span className="text-muted-foreground">of this band merged</span>}
+            />
+            <MiniSparkbar values={row.distribution} />
+          </div>
+        ))}
+      </div>
+    </section>
+  );
+}
diff --git a/apps/gittensory-ui/src/routes/app.analytics.tsx b/apps/gittensory-ui/src/routes/app.analytics.tsx
index 7a26005d6..c2d71172a 100644
--- a/apps/gittensory-ui/src/routes/app.analytics.tsx
+++ b/apps/gittensory-ui/src/routes/app.analytics.tsx
@@ -28,6 +28,8 @@ import {
   FindingsBreakdownCard,
   type FindingsBreakdown,
 } from "@/components/site/app-panels/findings-breakdown-card";
+import { SlopBandCalibrationCard } from "@/components/site/app-panels/slop-band-calibration-card";
+import type { SlopBandCalibrationReport } from "@/components/site/app-panels/slop-band-calibration-card-model";
 import { useApiResource } from "@/lib/api/use-api-resource";
 import { exportOperatorDashboardCsv } from "@/lib/csv-export";
 
@@ -124,6 +126,7 @@ type OperatorDashboard = {
   agentHealth?: ReversalHealth;
   acceptance?: FindingAcceptance;
   findingsBreakdown?: FindingsBreakdown;
+  slopBandCalibration?: SlopBandCalibrationReport;
 };
 
 function ProductAnalytics() {
@@ -232,6 +235,10 @@ function ProductAnalytics() {
 
           <FindingsBreakdownCard findings={data.findingsBreakdown} />
 
+          {data.slopBandCalibration ? (
+            <SlopBandCalibrationCard report={data.slopBandCalibration} />
+          ) : null}
+
           {data.usageSummary ? (
             <ProductUsageBreakdownPanel
               byEvent={data.usageSummary.byEvent}