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  <div class="stackedit__html"><h1 id="the-gartner-hype-cycle-how-to-understand-the-next-big-thing">The Gartner Hype Cycle: How to Understand the Next Big Thing</h1>
<p>Everyone has seen the bright campaigns of new technologies; we all remember the promises beckoning halcyon days and revisioning the most central activities of our daily lives. While these promises might seem pleasingly brilliant and optimistic, how much of each new technology really pays off, and how much is just glorified hype? With the rise of fast-paced media and quick e-commerce sites like <a href="https://www.wish.com/">Wish</a> and <a href="https://www.aliexpress.com/">AliExpress</a>, how can we determine the true worth of technological pursuits and resulting products? Gartner Inc. thinks they have the answer. This research firm has proposed a generalized solution to the “hype versus value” question with the <a href="https://www.gartner.com/en/research/methodologies/gartner-hype-cycle">Gartner Hype Cycle.</a></p>
<p>The Hype Cycle is displayed as a two dimensional graph, the horizontal axis measuring time and the vertical axis measuring expectations. The graph begins at the origin with the “Innovation Trigger,” the idea for a technology being released publicly with some proof-of-concept but no true test of commercial viability. Next, a media craze causes the graph to shoot up to a peak, accordingly called the “Peak of Inflated Expectations.” Unfortunately, no technology can meet the standards of an excited internet; the graph plummets to the “Trough of Disillusionment,” seemingly doomed to the graveyard of MySpace or FORTRAN. If it survives this stage, the technology moves on to the “Slope of Enlightenment,” expectations steadily rising as the true potential of the product, without the interference of hype, comes to light. Finally, its true usefulness realized, the technology ends at the “Plateau of Productivity,” finding mainstream acceptance and a clear understanding of its commercial viability.</p>
<p>Many notable examples over the past few years fit nicely on the cycle. Perhaps one of the most mainstream of these is cryptocurrency – <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin">Bitcoin’s price</a> has fit almost perfectly. Through 2017, many calling BTC “the money of the future,” its price exponentially grew, briefly rising over $19,000 in December. Then, with the public either disinterested or predicting its doom, BTC dropped down to under $5,000 by the end of 2018. Now, it seems that BTC has reached the “Plateau of Productivity,” rising to and staying steady around $10,000.</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://demandingchange.blogspot.com/2005/09/technology-hype-curve.html">critics</a> have raised problems with the Hype Cycle, however. They argue that the cycle is overly generalized, not concerning itself with industry or the scale of time it takes a technology to develop. Further, the cycle isn’t the product of scientific study or big data, instead only relying on light observation and intuition.</p>
<p>So, what can the average digital consumer really get out of the cycle? Well, critics and supporters of the cycle can agree on one central lesson – the best test we can set is simply a test of time. Even if you don’t buy the existence of the “Slope of Enlightenment” or “Plateau of Productivity,” if a technology lasts past the initial media craze we can be reasonably sure of what we’re getting. Instead of hopping on the train of the newest tech trend, wait for some honest evaluation to be reached. By thinking about how hype influences public evaluation of the newest products, we can all better assess the technology of tomorrow.</p>
<h2 id="work-cited">Work Cited</h2>
<p>“Hype Cycle Research Methodology.” <em>Gartner</em>, Gartner Inc., <a href="http://www.gartner.com/en/research/methodologies/gartner-hype-cycle">www.gartner.com/en/research/methodologies/gartner-hype-cycle</a>.</p>
<p>Rijn, Jordie van. “Latest Gartner Hype Cycles.” <em>Smart Insights</em>, Smart Insights Ltd, 7 Nov. 2019, <a href="http://www.smartinsights.com/managing-digital-marketing/marketing-innovation/technology-for-innovation-in-marketing/">www.smartinsights.com/managing-digital-marketing/marketing-innovation/technology-for-innovation-in-marketing/</a>.</p>
<p>Morris, Nicky. “Blockchain Past Peak in Gartner Hype Cycle.” <em>Ledger Insights</em>, Ledger Insights Ltd, 23 Aug. 2018, <a href="http://www.ledgerinsights.com/gartner-blockchain-hype-cycle/">www.ledgerinsights.com/gartner-blockchain-hype-cycle/</a>.</p>
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