diff --git a/references/references.bib b/references/references.bib index c96aac0..415689a 100644 --- a/references/references.bib +++ b/references/references.bib @@ -173,3 +173,14 @@ @misc{catalogofbias_collider note = {Catalog of Bias} } +@article{gooley1999competing, +author = {Gooley, Ted A. and Leisenring, Wendy and Crowley, John and Storer, Barry E.}, +title = {Estimation of Failure Probabilities in the Presence of Competing Risks: New Representations of Old Estimators}, +journal = {Statistics in Medicine}, +year = {1999}, +volume = {18}, +number = {6}, +pages = {695--706}, +doi = {10.1002/(SICI)1097-0258(19990330)18:6<695::AID-SIM60>3.0.CO;2-O}, +url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0258(19990330)18:6%3C695::AID-SIM60%3E3.0.CO;2-O} +} diff --git a/summary.qmd b/summary.qmd index 18436ae..1e96a13 100644 --- a/summary.qmd +++ b/summary.qmd @@ -1,7 +1,11 @@ -# Summary +# Summary of Gooley et al. (1999) -In summary, this book has no content whatsoever. +Gooley and colleagues explain how to estimate event probabilities when **competing risks** are present—situations where one event prevents the event of interest from occurring [@gooley1999competing]. Their central point is that the common shortcut of using **1 − Kaplan–Meier (1 − KM)** overestimates risk in this setting because it treats competing events as ordinary censoring [@gooley1999competing]. -```{r} -1 + 1 -``` +The paper shows that the **cumulative incidence (CI)** estimator is the correct quantity for estimating the absolute probability of a specific failure type in the presence of competing risks [@gooley1999competing]. CI properly accounts for both the hazard of the event of interest and the hazard of competing events, while 1 − KM does not [@gooley1999competing]. + +Using simulated data and two clinical examples, the authors demonstrate that divergence between 1 − KM and CI grows as competing events become more frequent; CI aligns with observed proportions when follow-up is complete, while 1 − KM can be substantially inflated [@gooley1999competing]. + +## Practical takeaway + +If your goal is to estimate the real-world probability of a specific endpoint over time and competing events exist, report **cumulative incidence** (and clearly define competing events), not 1 − KM [@gooley1999competing].