Phase5 v9 phase matchups - #9
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v8 vs v6: - Spearman: 0.1725 -> 0.4568 (+164.7%) - Top-11: 53.18% -> 64.79% (+21.8%) - NDCG: 0.6014 -> 0.7495 (+24.6%) - MAE: 26.059 -> 22.408 New features from 278K ball-by-ball deliveries: - batter_sr_vs_pace/spin_before (career SR vs bowling type) - batter_avg_vs_pace/spin_before - matchup_advantage (r=0.24 — strongest feature in entire dataset) - opponent_pace_pct / opponent_spin_pct (attack profile) - batter_death_sr_before / bowler_death_eco_before - batting_first, toss_won, toss_chose_field The matchup_advantage feature alone nearly doubled the previous best feature correlation (0.24 vs 0.15 for points_last_10_avg).
Audit results (post-fix): - Duplicates: 0 (was 240) - Rows: 25634 (80 lost in toss join, acceptable) - Temporal integrity: clean - matchup_advantage r=0.24 (only 0.19 with career_avg — independent signal) Clean v8 results confirmed: - Spearman: 0.4575 (+165% vs v6) - Top-11: 64.72% (+21.7%) - NDCG: 0.7509 (+24.8%) - MAE: 22.474 (-13.8%)
…6.93% v9 vs v6: - Spearman: 0.1725 -> 0.4963 (+187.6%) - Top-11: 53.18% -> 66.93% (+25.9%) = 7.4/11 correct - NDCG: 0.6014 -> 0.7892 (+31.2%) - MAE: 26.06 -> 21.12 (-18.9%) v9 vs v8: - Spearman: 0.4575 -> 0.4963 (+8.5%) - Top-11: 64.72% -> 66.93% (+3.4%) Three upgrades: A) Applied v7 redundancy removal to v8 base (dropped 22 noisy features) B) Added 6 phase x bowler type features (PP/MID/DEATH x PACE/SPIN) C) Added opponent bowling quality index (economy + SR rolling) 4 of top 7 features are new phase-matchup features: - batter_sr_pace_in_mid (#2) - batter_sr_spin_in_mid (#3) - batter_sr_pace_in_pp (#4) - batter_sr_pace_in_death (#7)
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What changed
Three stacked upgrades on top of v8:
A) Applied v7 redundancy removal to v8 base
B) Added 6 phase x bowler type features from 278K deliveries
Why this matters: Dhoni has SR 87 vs pace in powerplay but 178 in death overs.
AB de Villiers: 108 vs pace in PP but 233 in death. The model couldn't see this before.
C) Added opponent bowling quality index
Results
The model now correctly identifies 7.4 out of 11 top players per match.
Feature importance
4 of the top 7 features are new phase-matchup features:
Leakage audit