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tokenized-stock-peg: spec validation fix + methodology hardening #1146

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Merged
Flotapponnier merged 1 commit into from
Jul 13, 2026
Merged

tokenized-stock-peg: spec validation fix + methodology hardening #1146

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4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions benchmarks/tokenized-stock-peg.yml
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -48,6 +48,8 @@ methodology:
- "Cohort: the 11 official tokenized equities (name pattern <Company> * Robinhood Token, shared verified Stock implementation) whose USDG pool has real liquidity and swap history: NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, TSLA, PLTR, META, AMD, MSFT, AMZN, SPY, MU. Pool fees range 0.3% to 2%."
- "Excluded, with reasons: SPCX (SpaceX pool holds ~$196k but SpaceX is not listed, no reference price exists), SNDK and QQQ (pool depth under $2k, deviation would be noise), CRCL (pool at zero liquidity), ~80 other official tokens (issuer-seeded placeholder pools at 90-95% fee, zero swaps), HOOD (never issued onchain, all HOOD tokens on the chain are third-party spam)."
- "Thin liquidity is part of the story, not a defect: pool depths run $24k to $330k, so a single mid-size swap can move the onchain price meaningfully off the reference until arbitrage closes it. The bench measures how fast that closure actually happens."
- "Reading grid: an AMM price can sit anywhere inside the pool's fee band without creating an arbitrage opportunity, so a 2% fee pool resting 150 bps off its reference is economically at equilibrium, not broken. Cross-symbol ranking therefore partly reflects each pool's fee tier (disclosed in every tag); the within-symbol trend over time is the purest signal."
- "Quote-asset caveat: pool prices are denominated in USDG and compared against USD references. A USDG peg wobble would appear as a correlated deviation across all 11 symbols simultaneously, which is the signature to check before reading a broad move as tracking error."
- "Caveats: the issuer can pause or blocklist a token (the harness drops the sample and lets the series age out rather than freezing), and the Stock contract carries a split multiplier; a corporate action can look like a one-day deviation spike until reconciled."

findings:
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -75,8 +77,6 @@ prometheus:
window: 24h
freshness_metric: tsp_deviation_bps

rank_matrix_query: avg by (asset) (quantile_over_time(0.50, tsp_deviation_bps{market_state="regular"}[24h]))

# Metrics emitted by the tokenized-stock-peg harness:
# tsp_deviation_bps{asset, market_state} gauge, abs deviation in bps
# tsp_price_onchain_usdg{asset} gauge, v4 pool spot
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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion harnesses/tokenized-stock-peg/cmd/script/reference.go
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Expand Up @@ -48,7 +48,7 @@ func fetchReferencePrices(client *http.Client) map[string]refQuote {
for _, a := range assets {
syms = append(syms, a.Symbol)
}
url := sparkHost + "?symbols=" + strings.Join(syms, ",") + "&range=1d&interval=5m"
url := sparkHost + "?symbols=" + strings.Join(syms, ",") + "&range=1d&interval=1m"
raw, status := yahooGet(client, url)
if raw == nil {
tspSourceCall.WithLabelValues("yahoo", status).Inc()
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