AI-assisted prediction market desk. Connects to Polymarket and Kalshi via the synthesis.trade API, with GPT-4o generating structured predictions and Kelly-optimal position sizing.
cd app && npm install && npm startThe dashboard opens at http://127.0.0.1:8420.
Synth follows a five-step loop: Discover → Analyze → Decide → Place → Approve.
The Dashboard is the home screen. It shows three panels:
- Left — Positions: Your open and closed bets. Toggle between
OpenandClosedto review active wagers vs. settled results. Each card shows the market name, wager size, implied probability, confidence, and days until resolution. - Center — Closing Soon / Crypto: Markets about to resolve, sorted by time remaining. Each row shows the market question, the current YES/NO probability split, and time left. Tap any row to generate a prediction.
- Right — NemoClaw Agent: The AI assistant panel. Use the quick-action buttons to find the best crypto bet, commit a specific dollar amount, view affordable options, clean up stale predictions, or show your P&L. You can also type free-form questions.
Key buttons:
- The top nav bar has tabs for Dashboard, Markets, Predictions, Approvals, Audit, and Settings.
- The wallet strip below the nav shows your LIVE and PRACTICE balances plus P&L, AI Accuracy, and Open Positions count.
- Click the Live / Sim toggle to switch between real-money and practice modes.
Click Predictions in the top nav. This screen lists every prediction the AI has generated, organized by recency. Each card contains:
- The prediction question and AI's directional lean (YES/NO).
- Confidence level, Kelly fraction, and recommended wager.
- A progress bar showing the market's current YES/NO pricing.
- Status badges:
GENERATED(awaiting your review),COMMITTED(order placed), orRESOLVED(market settled).
Cards are color-coded: cyan bars indicate active markets with time remaining, orange bars indicate markets nearing expiry. Use the right-side Selection Analytics panel to batch-review, see aggregate stats, or filter by status.
Tap any market row or prediction card to open the prediction detail view:
- Header: Market name, source venue (Polymarket/Kalshi), and confidence badge (LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH).
- AI Recommendation: The lean direction (YES or NO), the probability estimate, the share price, and the suggested wager amount.
- Kelly fraction: How much of your bankroll the Kelly criterion recommends risking.
- Min entry / Max affordable / Yes price / No price: Key numbers to size your bet.
- Review & Commit button: Opens the order placement flow. Shows the lean direction, dollar amount, and current mode (LIVE or PRACTICE).
- Show analysis + chart: Expands the analysis panel (see next step).
Click Show analysis + chart on any prediction to reveal the full AI analysis:
- Price History chart: A line chart of the YES token price over time. The red dot marks the current price. Use this to spot trends, momentum, and entry timing.
- Yes / No / Kelly stats: Current share prices with percentage probabilities and the Kelly fraction.
- Thesis: A 1–2 sentence directional call — what the AI believes will happen and why.
- Rationale: 2–3 sentences grounding the view in market data, volume, liquidity, and news context.
- Invalidation: What scenario would make this prediction wrong. Useful for setting mental stop-losses.
- Risk: Liquidity, expiry, or volatility risks the AI has identified.
- Model + Token: Which GPT model generated the analysis and the on-chain token identifier.
Strategies reflected in the analysis:
| Strategy | How It's Used |
|---|---|
| Market Scoring | Markets ranked by urgency (40%), liquidity (20%), volume (20%), and price dislocation (20%). Near-term markets surface first. |
| Kelly Criterion Sizing | Three variants — binary market Kelly, classical Kelly, and drawdown-adjusted Kelly — determine optimal bet size relative to bankroll. |
| Confidence-Gated Entry | Only markets above the confidence threshold (default 0.55) get trade suggestions. Below-threshold markets receive HOLD recommendations. |
| Price Dislocation Detection | Markets priced far from 50/50 get flagged. The further the dislocation, the higher the score — indicating potential mispricing. |
| Time-Weighted Urgency | Log-scaled urgency scoring prioritizes markets resolving within hours over those weeks away. |
| Risk Capping | Max 10% of wallet per prediction, 50% total utilization, per-trade and daily loss limits prevent catastrophic drawdowns. |
After reviewing a prediction, click Review & Commit to open the order modal. In LIVE MODE (real money), the flow has three steps:
Step 1 — Pick Your Side Choose YES — It happens or NO — It doesn't. The AI's recommended lean is highlighted. Each button shows the implied probability and share price.
Step 2 — How Much? Enter a dollar amount. The modal shows:
- Min and Max based on your balance and risk limits.
- Estimated shares at the current price.
- Quick-amount buttons ($1, $5, $10, etc.) filtered to your affordable range.
Step 3 — Confirm Review the summary: position direction, entry price, estimated shares, potential payout if correct, and the current mode (LIVE or PRACTICE).
Bottom buttons:
- Cancel: Close without placing.
- Re-predict: Run the AI analysis again with fresh market data.
- Place Live Order: Submit the order. In LIVE mode with approval enabled, this queues the order to the Approvals tab. In SIM mode, it executes immediately as a practice bet.
SIM MODE: All the same steps apply, but the header shows "PRACTICE MODE" instead of "LIVE MODE", amounts come from your practice balance, and orders execute instantly without approval.
When you place a LIVE order, it lands in the Approvals tab (accessible from the top nav). This is the human-in-the-loop safety gate.
Each pending approval card shows:
- LIVE ORDER badge and the dollar amount.
- The market question, your lean (YES/NO), and the confidence level.
- Order type (MARKET) and the on-chain token ID.
Two action buttons:
- Execute Real Order (green): Sends the order to the exchange via the synthesis.trade API. This uses real USDC from your wallet. Once executed, the prediction status updates to
COMMITTEDand appears in your Positions. - Reject (red): Cancels the pending order. The prediction remains in your list as
GENERATEDso you can re-evaluate later.
Use the ALL / LIVE / SIM filter tabs to narrow the view. Click Refresh to check for new pending items.
git clone https://github.com/DylanCkawalec/synth.git && cd synth
# Configure
cp .env.example .env
# Edit .env with your keys from https://synthesis.trade/dashboard
# Install and run
cd app && npm install && npm start| Variable | Required | Description |
|---|---|---|
SECRET_KEY_SYNTH |
Yes | synthesis.trade API secret key |
PUBLIC_KEY_SYNTH |
Yes | synthesis.trade API public key |
OPENAI_API_KEY |
For predictions | OpenAI API key for GPT-4o |
SIMULATION_MODE |
— | true (default) or false for live trading |
CONFIDENCE_THRESHOLD |
— | Minimum confidence to suggest trades (default: 0.55) |
MAX_POSITION_USDC |
— | Maximum position size (default: 1000) |
MAX_SINGLE_ORDER_USDC |
— | Maximum single order (default: 100) |
MAX_DAILY_LOSS_USDC |
— | Daily loss limit (default: 200) |
SERVER_HOST |
— | Bind address (default: 127.0.0.1; use 0.0.0.0 in Docker) |
SERVER_PORT |
— | HTTP port (default: 8420) |
SIM_STARTING_BALANCE |
— | Starting balance for sim wallet (default: 10000) |
COMPACTION_HOUR |
— | Local hour (0–23) to run prediction log compaction |
AGGREGATION_INTERVAL_HOURS |
— | Hours between summary aggregation runs |
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ React + TypeScript + Tailwind │
│ Dashboard · Markets · Predictions · Wallet │
│ Deposit · Withdraw · MetaMask · QR Codes │
└──────────────────┬──────────────────────────┘
│
┌──────────────────▼──────────────────────────┐
│ Express Server (Node.js) │
│ API proxy · GPT-4o engine · SQLite store │
├──────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ synthesis.trade API │
│ Markets · Wallets · Orders · Deposits │
└──────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Core files:
app/
├── server/index.ts Express server (API proxy, predictions, persistence)
├── server/db.ts SQLite database layer
├── server/kelly.ts Kelly criterion calculations
├── server/simWallet.ts Simulation wallet logic
├── server/memory.ts Aggregation and compaction workers
├── src/App.tsx React dashboard
├── src/api.ts API client
├── src/scoring.ts Market scoring engine
├── src/types.ts TypeScript definitions
└── src/index.css Tailwind + custom properties
Markets ranked by weighted composite score:
| Signal | Weight | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Urgency | 40% | Time to market resolution (log-scaled, near-term preferred) |
| Liquidity | 20% | Orderbook depth |
| Volume | 20% | 24-hour trading volume |
| Dislocation | 20% | Distance from 50/50 pricing |
| Control | Default | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| Max per prediction | 10% of wallet | Prevent single-bet ruin |
| Max total utilization | 50% of wallet | Preserve dry powder |
| Max single order | $100 USDC | Limit per-trade exposure |
| Max daily loss | $200 USDC | Drawdown circuit breaker |
| Confidence threshold | 0.55 | Block low-conviction trades |
| Approval gate | On | Human review required |
Dual-theme system for visual mode distinction:
- Live mode: Dark theme (deep navy/black, green accents)
- Simulation mode: Light theme (white/gray, green accents)
The mode toggle in the wallet strip switches between LIVE and SIMULATION.
Settings provides four tabs: Wallet, Deposit, Withdraw, Config.
- Select token (USDC, USDC.e, USDT) and network (Polygon, Ethereum, Solana, Base, Binance, Arbitrum, Optimism)
- Deposit address auto-fetched from synthesis.trade API
- Copy button and QR code
- MetaMask detection with chain-aware guidance
- Select token and network
- Amount field with MAX button
- Default to connected MetaMask address, or custom address
- EVM and Solana address validation
- Network mismatch warnings
- One-click MetaMask connection
- Auto-detect chain, address, and ETH balance
- Listen for account and chain changes
- Chain mismatch warnings
NemoClaw MCP server exposes agent tools:
fetch_markets— Search and score prediction marketsfetch_balance— Get wallet balance across chainsfetch_positions— Get open positionsgenerate_prediction— Run AI prediction on a marketget_price_history— Analyze token price trendsget_market_stats— Volume, liquidity, and open interestresearch_topic— Fetch news and context for fundamental researchplace_order— Place market or limit orderslist_predictions— Review predictions with accuracy statsclean_stale_predictions— Remove ended/distant uncommitted predictions
- Whitepaper — Protocol overview
- Getting Started — Account setup and first order
- Authentication — API authentication methods
- WebSockets — Real-time data streaming
- API Reference — Complete API documentation
- Ensemble Architecture — Calibrated swarm ensemble design
MIT