Kraken Intelligence

Adaptive Trading Platform — Giblets Creations

"I wanted it. So I forged it. Now forge yours."

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🎯 What This Is

An autonomous trading system that validates itself on unseen data before ever trading live.

Kraken Intelligence is a market-adaptive trading platform built to run completely locally (currently on a Samsung S24 Ultra via Termux). It collects live cryptocurrency data, analyses market conditions, generates and validates trading strategies, and monitors for entry signals without relying on cloud infrastructure.

🏛️ The Five Pillars

Pillar	How KI Delivers
Cost Control	Runs on Termux (phone), free API, no cloud
Security	3 locks, API keys in .env, 30-day dry runs
Quality	Backtest + forward test (80/20 split), auto-optimization
Efficiency	24/7 autonomous, market-adaptive switching
Freedom	MIT License, SCP portable strategies

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📊 Current Status

Running Processes (PM2):

• forge-monitor — Watches for entry conditions every 5 minutes.
• reasoning-bot — Selects the best strategy for current market conditions hourly.
• ki-collector — Collects daily OHLCV data from Kraken at 6am UTC.

Strategy Pool (8 strategies):

• 5 Original Hardcoded Strategies: Smart BTC, Momentum, Grid, Breakout, Mean Reversion.
• 3 Forge-Validated Strategies:
  • H.E Consecutive Red + RSI — 62.5% WR, +41.5% return
  • H.E Mean Reversion Bollinger — 56.3% WR, +45.2% return
  • H.E Oversold Bounce — 56.3% WR, +41.9% return

Current Market Conditions (as of 2026-04-15):

• Regime: RANGING / ACCUMULATION
• BTC Price: ~$74,000
• Sentiment: NEUTRAL
• Monitor Status: Watching (no entry conditions met yet)

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🛡️ Why This Exists & Security

Problem	How Kraken Intelligence Solves It
Non-adaptive strategies	Adaptive allocator switches by market regime
No forward testing	Validation pipeline tests on 20% unseen data
Untested before live	Mandatory 30-day dry run
API key leaks	Three locks system, keys in .env
No strategy portability	SCP (Semantic Capsule Protocol)

The Three Locks

Lock 1: 30 days dry run ─────► Cannot bypass
Lock 2: Validation (≥55% WR) ► Auto-tested
Lock 3: API key in .env ─────► User controlled

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🔄 The Forge Loop

The core intelligence cycle:

forge-reasoning.js   →  Generates hypothesis from market state + failure memory
forge-validator.js   →  Backtests against real Kraken data, honest pass/fail gate
forge_auto.js        →  Runs loop until a strategy passes
forge-monitor.js     →  Watches for live entry conditions via PM2

Pass criteria: Win rate ≥ 50%, positive return, minimum 5 trades.

Failed strategies are stored in reasoning-bot/data/validation_failures.json and inform the next hypothesis.

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🏗️ Architecture

~/kraken-intelligence/
├── forge-reasoning.js     — Hypothesis generation
├── forge-validator.js     — Hardcoded rule backtest engine
├── forge-monitor.js       — Live entry condition watcher
├── forge_auto.js          — Automated generate/validate loop
├── collect.js             — Daily OHLCV data collection
├── analyse.js             — Pattern finder, regime classifier
├── reasoning-bot/         — Market analyser + strategy selector
│   ├── market_analyser.js
│   ├── strategy_selector.js
│   └── data/
│       ├── reasoning_bot.db
│       ├── validation_failures.json
│       └── monitor_log.json
├── tools/                 — 9 Integrated tools
├── data/
│   └── intelligence.db    — 721+ daily candles, 10+ pairs
└── cce/engines/scp/       — Validated strategy capsules

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Known Limitations

• Backtest results come from the same 721 historical candles — forward performance may differ
• The monitor has not yet caught a live entry signal (market conditions currently ranging/neutral)
• The 30-day dry run gate in Aegis is a counter, not 30 actual days of trading
• Strategy pool previously accumulated duplicates — resolved 2026-04-15

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Quick Commands

# Check what's running
pm2 list

# See monitor activity
pm2 logs forge-monitor --lines 20

# Generate and validate a new strategy
node forge_auto.js 5

# Single monitor check
node forge-monitor.js --once

# Run reasoning bot once
cd reasoning-bot && node -e "const b = new (require('./index'))(); b.runOnce();"

# Platform Status
./platform-status.sh

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Part of the Adaptive Intelligence Platform

Kraken Intelligence is one tool in the broader Adaptive Intelligence Platform — a suite built around cost control, security, quality, efficiency, and sovereignty.

Other tools: Whisper, Aegis, EmbedID, MarkFlow, CertiScope, TreeCraft, Test Generator, Chameleon LM, Praximous.

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Giblets Creations — James Gilbert Built on Samsung S24 Ultra via Termux April 2026