feat(analytics): surface org-wide slop-band calibration + dashboard card (#2196)

[dhgoal]

What

Adds the slop-band calibration card to the operator analytics dashboard (Closes #2196): predicted slop band vs realized merge/close outcome across resolved PRs — is the deterministic slop score predictive (do higher-slop bands merge less)? Surfaces real data end-to-end (not a display-only stub): the existing, unit-tested buildSlopOutcomeCalibration is wired over listAllPullRequests into the dashboard payload, then rendered. Bands only — never raw scores.

Reworked from #4813 with its review feedback fully addressed:

• Diff-tight backend — the operator-dashboard.ts change is now +12/−0 (no whole-file reformatting churn); only the real feature lines.
• Fail-safe on read error — the new read .catch(() => buildSlopOutcomeCalibration([])), mirroring the sibling computeGateEval/cycleTime reads, so one DB hiccup can never fail the whole dashboard.

Changes

Backend (src/services/operator-dashboard.ts, +12)

• Fold listAllPullRequests(env) through buildSlopOutcomeCalibration (pure, already unit-tested) inside the existing Promise.all, exposing slopCalibration: SlopOutcomeCalibration — org-wide per-band { sampleSize, merged, closed, mergeRate }, overallMergeRate, and a discriminates verdict. Fails safe to an empty calibration on any read error.
• Covered by test/unit/operator-dashboard.test.ts (new empty-signal assertion).

Frontend

• slop-band-calibration-card.tsx (new) — SlopBandCalibrationCard: per-band merge-rate bars (severity-colored) + resolved · merged · closed counts + a predictive / inverted / insufficient-data verdict pill. Reuses AnalyticsCardShell; graceful empty + absent states.
• slop-band-calibration-card.test.tsx (new) — 5 tests: all-bands, empty-band (— no samples), inverted, no-resolved-data, absent field.
• app.analytics.tsx — optional slopCalibration? on the dashboard type + renders after the findings-breakdown card.

Verification

Backend test/unit/operator-dashboard.test.ts green (incl. the new assertion); diff is +207/−0. Card tests + typecheck were green on the identical component in #4813 (which passed validate-code, ui:build, and Codecov patch 100%).

Screenshots

/app/analytics, populated (predictive: clean 90% → high 0%) and empty, desktop + mobile, light + dark.

State	Desktop (light)	Desktop (dark)	Mobile
Populated	predictive · light	predictive · dark	mobile
Empty	empty · light	empty · dark	mobile

Closes #2196

[superagent-security]

🚨 Contributor flagged. Click here for more info: Superagent Dashboard

[superagent-security]

Superagent didn't find any vulnerabilities or security issues in this PR.

[codecov]

Codecov Report

❌ Patch coverage is 0% with 1 line in your changes missing coverage. Please review.
✅ Project coverage is 94.31%. Comparing base (a416632) to head (75b3184).

Files with missing lines	Patch %	Lines
src/services/operator-dashboard.ts	0.00%	1 Missing ⚠️

Additional details and impacted files

@@            Coverage Diff             @@
##             main    #5125      +/-   ##
==========================================
- Coverage   94.32%   94.31%   -0.01%     
==========================================
  Files         471      471              
  Lines       39821    39822       +1     
  Branches    14533    14533              
==========================================
  Hits        37560    37560              
- Misses       1583     1584       +1     
  Partials      678      678              

Flag	Coverage Δ
shard-1	46.34% <0.00%> (-0.01%)	⬇️
shard-2	34.40% <0.00%> (-0.26%)	⬇️
shard-3	31.27% <0.00%> (+0.28%)	⬆️
shard-4	32.74% <0.00%> (-0.14%)	⬇️
shard-5	33.42% <0.00%> (-0.23%)	⬇️
shard-6	45.18% <0.00%> (+0.31%)	⬆️

Flags with carried forward coverage won't be shown. Click here to find out more.

Files with missing lines	Coverage Δ
src/services/operator-dashboard.ts	96.15% <0.00%> (-3.85%)	⬇️

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Caution

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🛑 Gittensory review result - fixes required

_{Review updated: 2026-07-11 17:47:54 UTC}

5 files · no blockers · readiness 100/100 · CI failing · unstable

🛑 Suggested Action - Fix Blockers

• AI review already in progress for this PR head: Another Gittensory pass is already running the AI review for this exact PR head. This pass is skipping to avoid a duplicate LLM call.

Review summary
AI review is already running for this PR head in another Gittensory pass. Gittensory is holding this PR for manual review until that pass completes.

Nits — 1 non-blocking

• AI review already in progress for this PR head — The gate is held for a human reviewer rather than passed automatically; it re-evaluates once the in-flight review completes or on the next update.

CI checks failing

• codecov/patch — 0.00% of diff hit (target 99.00%)

Flagged checks (non-blocking)

• Contributor trust — Contributor flagged for review

Signal	Result	Evidence
Code review	✅ No blockers	No AI review summary
Linked issue	✅ Linked	#2196
Related work	✅ No active overlap found	No same-issue or scoped active PR overlap found.
Change scope	✅ 20/20	Low review scope from cached public metadata (1 linked issue).
Validation posture	✅ 25/25	PR body includes validation/test evidence.
Contributor workload	✅ 10/10	Author activity: 101 registered-repo PR(s), 62 merged, 14 issue(s).
Contributor context	✅ Confirmed Gittensor contributor	dhgoal; Gittensor profile; 101 PR(s), 14 issue(s).
Gate result	⚠️ Not blocking	Advisory; not blocking this PR.
Improvement	✅ Minor	risk: clean · value: minor — Code changes are accompanied by test evidence.

Review context

• Author: dhgoal
• Role context: outside_contributor
• Public audience mode: oss maintainer
• Lane context: Repository is configured for direct PR review.
• Public profile languages: not available
• Official Gittensor activity: 101 PR(s), 14 issue(s).
• PR-specific overlap: none found.

Contributor next steps

• Keep the PR focused and include validation evidence before maintainer review.

Signal definitions

• Related work = same linked issue, overlapping active PRs, or title/path similarity.
• Change scope = cached public metadata such as size labels, draft state, and review-burden hints.
• Validation posture = whether the PR provides enough public validation/test evidence for maintainer review.
• Contributor workload = public contributor activity and cleanup pressure, not a repo-wide quality failure.
• Contributor context = public GitHub/Gittensor identity context; non-Gittensor status is not a blocker.

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Visual preview

Route	Viewport	Before (production)	After (this PR's preview)	Diff
/app/analytics	desktop			—
/app/analytics	mobile			—

Click any thumbnail to open the full-size screenshot. Before = production · After = this PR's preview deploy.

_{🟩 Safe / merged · 🟦 Advisory · 🟨 Held for review · 🟥 Blocked / closed}

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