NCAAF player prop projection model. One of the edge-models family.
Give it a player's recent game log and a betting line. It returns a calibrated probability that the player goes over, plus a quarter Kelly stake. Trained on 4.6M synthesized lines pulled from real NCAAF game logs.
Held out test split (1.04M rows that the model never trained on):
| accuracy | brier | log loss | baseline | lift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93.8% | 0.053 | 0.203 | 0.262 | +22.4% |
Lift is how much lower the calibrated log loss is than a no-skill baseline (0.059 absolute, 22.4% relative). College football lines are softer than the pros, hence the big lift. Limited mostly by how few games some players have on record.
git clone https://github.com/LeSingh1/edge-ncaaf
cd edge-ncaaf
node src/predict.js --stat "Rush Yards" --line 78.5 --log 92,64,103,71,88
Output is the projection, the raw over probability, the calibrated probability, and a suggested stake.
- Weight the recent games up and fit a mean and standard deviation.
- Turn the line into a raw over probability with a normal model.
- Correct that probability with the trained isotonic calibrator in
models/calibration.json. The correction is clamped to +/-0.20 so a thin bucket cannot fake confidence. - Size the bet with quarter Kelly.
The calibrator is keyed by stat type, so "Rush Yards" gets a different correction than other stats.
The scraping pipeline and the raw training rows live in the private app this came out of. This repo ships the trained model and the code to run it, which is the useful part.
MIT. Not financial advice. The house edge is real, bet responsibly.