Holi.

En este repo vas a encontrar todo el código del proyecto Oloráculo: un oráculo del mundial que funciona como huele.

Video con lore y explicación

Oloraculo

Oloraculo is a .NET 9 Blazor Server app for predicting the 2026 FIFA World Cup. It builds predictions as a small model ladder, explains which model was used, and can run a Monte Carlo simulation of the full tournament.

What It Does

• Imports seed data from CSV files: groups, historical results, FIFA rankings, and Elo ratings.
• Builds match predictions through layered models:
  • uniform baseline
  • FIFA ranking
  • Elo
  • recent form
  • Poisson scoreline model with a Dixon-Coles-style low-score adjustment
  • goal model adjusted by recent context and player availability when available
• Selects the highest usable model as the final oracle, with notes about missing or skipped signals.
• Runs a repeatable Monte Carlo tournament simulation and stores tournament snapshots.
• Saves match predictions and evaluates them later with Brier score, RPS, log loss, and top-pick accuracy.
• Optionally refreshes rankings, API-Football fixture/context data, and availability news classified through OpenRouter.

Tech Stack

• .NET 9
• Blazor Server with MudBlazor
• Entity Framework Core 9
• SQLite
• CsvHelper
• xUnit

Main Screens

• / - overview and model ladder
• /lab - compare two teams across the prediction ladder
• /matches - group-stage fixtures, prediction snapshots, context refresh, and result entry
• /fixture - full fixture view
• /tournament - run the Monte Carlo tournament simulation
• /tournament/snapshots - inspect saved tournament projections
• /performance - prediction evaluation metrics
• /data - CSV import, rankings refresh, API-Football refresh, and availability refresh

Project Structure

Oloraculo.sln
Oloraculo.Web/
  Components/          Blazor pages, layout, and shared UI
  DAL/                 EF Core DbContext
  Data/                CSV seed data and video notes
  Helpers/             CSV parsing, team-name normalization, crypto helpers
  Models/              Domain, CSV, API-Football, snapshot, and evaluation models
  Predictors/          Model ladder and final selector
  Probability/         Outcome, scoreline, and tournament probability math
  Services/            Import, prediction, rankings, API, availability, snapshots, evaluation
    Simulation/        World Cup bracket and Monte Carlo engine
Oloraculo.Web.Tests/   xUnit tests

Getting Started

Prerequisites:

• .NET 9 SDK

Run the app:

dotnet restore
dotnet run --project Oloraculo.Web

The SQLite database is created automatically on startup, and the CSV seed data is imported when needed.

Configuration

Settings live in Oloraculo.Web/appsettings.json under the Oloraculo section.

Important keys:

• SimulationCount and SimulationSeed
• RecentResultCount
• GoalModelYearsWindow
• RankingRefreshOnStartup
• FifaRankingsRawUrl
• EloRankingsBaseUrl
• ApiFootballApiKey
• OpenRouterApiKey
• AvailabilitySourceUrls

Keep secrets such as API-Football and OpenRouter keys in appsettings.Development.json or user secrets.

Testing

dotnet test

Data Sources

CSV seed data lives in Oloraculo.Web/Data:

• wc2026_groups.csv
• historical_results.csv
• fifa_rankings.csv
• elo_snapshot.csv