AI-powered weather predictions for Kalshi prediction markets.
Weather Edge uses a multi-model ensemble (31 GFS + 51 ECMWF members) with NWS bias correction to generate daily temperature predictions for Kalshi weather markets. When our model finds a statistically significant mispricing (8%+ edge), it generates a trading signal.
- 82 weather models combined into probability distributions
- 1.8°F Mean Absolute Error on 7-day historical validation
- 14 US cities covered (LAX, MIA, CHI, AUS, DEN, BOS, DAL, NYC, PHX, SEA, SFO, ATL, HOU, MIN)
- 3 daily scans (5 AM, 7 AM, 9 AM CT) — most edge found pre-10 AM
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Safety-regime win rate | 88% (7W / 1L) |
| Full sample | 50% (8W / 8L, includes pre-calibration) |
| First live trade | DAL HIGH NO — WIN +$0.66 (Apr 10, 2026) |
| Model accuracy | 1.8°F MAE, 96.9% at 90%+ confidence |
- Ensemble forecasting: Combines GFS (31 members) + ECMWF (51 members) into temperature probability distributions
- NWS bias correction: Corrects systematic model errors city-by-city using NWS point forecasts (70% weight)
- Market comparison: Compares model probabilities against Kalshi contract prices
- Signal generation: Flags contracts where model probability diverges from market price by 8%+ (our edge threshold)
Get free daily signals before the market opens: stewyboy1990.github.io/weather-edge
This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Trade responsibly.