fix(psychsocio): close post-merge P1 preregistration gaps

.github/workflows/psychsocio-metafauna.yml

@@ -4,12 +4,14 @@ on:
   pull_request:
     paths:
       - "research/psychsocio-metafauna/**"
+      - "research/metapat/BASE.json"
       - "README.md"
       - ".github/workflows/psychsocio-metafauna.yml"
   push:
     branches: [main]
     paths:
       - "research/psychsocio-metafauna/**"
+      - "research/metapat/BASE.json"
       - "README.md"
       - ".github/workflows/psychsocio-metafauna.yml"
 

research/psychsocio-metafauna/PREREGISTRATION.md

@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ This is the first bounded test of the internal usefulness of the psychsocio-meta
 
 ## Decision
 
-Does the combined claim of **damage-affordance specificity + nonlinear coalescence + hysteresis** earn implementation beyond a vocabulary map?
+Do **damage-affordance specificity + a super-additive match × reinforcement interaction + hysteresis** jointly earn implementation beyond a vocabulary map, while threshold-shaped nonlinear coalescence remains explicitly unresolved for a later preregistration?
 
 ## Load-bearing unknown
 
@@ -55,8 +55,9 @@ The result changes the next branch:
 
 ```text
 SURVIVED   -> implement a richer AHBG adapter and external-literature comparison
-FALSIFIED  -> retire coalescence as a distinct mechanism for this formal scope;
-              retain ordinary influence and social-learning language
+FALSIFIED  -> retire only the frozen hypothesis component actually falsified;
+              retain ordinary influence/social-learning language and keep any
+              untested threshold-shaped coalescence mechanism UNRESOLVED
 UNRESOLVED -> repair the earliest failed prerequisite or measurement separation
 BLOCKED    -> do not run until deterministic completion and verification are feasible
 ```
@@ -258,13 +259,35 @@ Matched damaged-host/pattern pairs produce greater persistence than the same pat
 
 **Falsifier:** either difference is below `0.15`, reverses sign, or is explained by a pattern's globally higher reward independent of match.
 
-### H2 — coalescence interaction
+### H2 — super-additive interaction precursor
 
-The joint effect of match and social reinforcement on persistence is super-additive.
+This run tests whether match and social reinforcement interact super-additively on persistence. It does **not** test a threshold crossing and cannot by itself establish nonlinear coalescence.
 
-**Survival rule:** the predeclared interaction contrast is at least `0.10`, and a threshold/interaction model improves held-out mean squared error by at least `10%` relative to the additive model.
+Eligible H2 cells are restricted to the comparable high-demand `P1`–`P4` profiles. For each damaged host `D1`–`D4`:
 
-**Falsifier:** the interaction contrast is below `0.10`, or the additive model predicts held-out persistence within the same error band.
+- the matched cell uses its corresponding `Pi`;
+- mismatched cells use each of the other three `Pj != Pi` profiles with equal weight;
+- `PM`, `P0`, `PX`, and `PR` are excluded from H2;
+- independent support is fixed to `absent`;
+- safe-exit `absent` and `present` cells receive equal weight;
+- only held-out seeds `16..31` are evaluated.
+
+Within each `Di`, first average persistence over held-out seeds within each exact factorial cell. Then average those cell means with equal weight to obtain the four `matched/unmatched × reinforcement/no-reinforcement` means. The predeclared difference-in-differences contrast is:
+
+```text
+I_i = mean(persistence | matched, reinforcement)
+    - mean(persistence | matched, no reinforcement)
+    - mean(persistence | mismatched, reinforcement)
+    + mean(persistence | mismatched, no reinforcement)
+```
+
+The H2 statistic is `I = mean(I_1, I_2, I_3, I_4)` with equal weight for each damage profile.
+
+**Survival rule:** `I >= 0.10`.
+
+**Falsifier:** `I < 0.10` or reverses sign. This falsifies only the frozen super-additive interaction precursor; it does not falsify an untested threshold-shaped coalescence mechanism.
+
+**Interpretation boundary:** `H2 = SURVIVED` means only that this frozen super-additive interaction precursor survived. `nonlinear coalescence threshold = UNRESOLVED` regardless of H2 status. A threshold/breakpoint model requires a separate preregistration before it may contribute to the coalescence claim.
 
 ### H3 — hysteresis
 
@@ -276,19 +299,50 @@ After initiating exposure is removed, matched high-demand patterns retain more h
 
 ### H4 — adoption/capture separation
 
-The measurement vector distinguishes high adoption with preserved revision and exit from the candidate capture configuration.
+The measurement vector distinguishes high adoption with preserved inspection/revision capacity from high adoption under a high-demand pattern with narrowed inspectability.
+
+H4 uses paired held-out episodes only. For each damage profile `D1`–`D4`, social-reinforcement level, safe-exit level, and held-out seed `16..31`, pair the matched-support `PM` episode with the corresponding matched high-demand `Pi` episode while fixing `independent support = absent`. A pair is H4-eligible only when **both** episodes have adoption at or above `0.75`.
 
-**Survival rule:** at least `90%` of matched-support episodes with adoption at or above `0.75` remain outside the candidate capture configuration.
+If no H4-eligible pairs exist, `H4 = UNRESOLVED`; neither `SURVIVED` nor `FALSIFIED` may be assigned from an empty denominator. Missing required source episodes are `BLOCKED` rather than silently excluded.
 
-**Falsifier:** strong adaptive adoption is routinely classified as capture.
+For each eligible pair compute:
+
+```text
+revision_separation    = revision openness(PM) - revision openness(Pi)
+alternative_separation = alternative access(PM) - alternative access(Pi)
+```
+
+Each eligible pair receives equal weight.
+
+**Survival rule:** at least `90%` of the `PM` sides of eligible pairs must independently satisfy both `revision openness >= 0.50` and `alternative access >= 0.50`; at least `90%` of the corresponding high-demand `Pi` sides must independently satisfy both `revision openness <= 0.50` and `alternative access <= 0.50`; and the equal-weight mean `revision_separation` and `alternative_separation` must each be at least `0.15`. Safe-exit behavior is reported separately and absence of exit alone cannot make this rule survive or fail.
+
+**Falsifier:** more than `10%` of eligible `PM` sides fail either preservation threshold, more than `10%` of eligible `Pi` sides fail either narrowing threshold, or either mean separation is below `0.15` or reverses sign.
+
+This rule does not reuse the candidate-capture configuration or its host-outcome comparison. It requires a nonempty paired cohort in which the support side preserves inspectability and the high-demand side actually satisfies the frozen narrowing gates before H4 can survive.
 
 ### H5 — noncoercive repair
 
-Independent support reduces persistence and reproduction demands while increasing revision, alternative access, or exit, without deleting the pattern or imposing a belief action.
+Independent support reduces persistence and reproduction allocation while increasing revision, alternative access, or exit, without deleting the pattern or imposing a belief action.
+
+H5 uses only matched high-demand `D1/P1` through `D4/P4` conditions. Social reinforcement and safe exit each retain both declared levels. For every held-out seed `16..31`, pair the `independent support = present` episode with the otherwise identical `independent support = absent` episode.
+
+For each pair compute:
+
+```text
+persistence_reduction   = persistence(no support) - persistence(support)
+reproduction_reduction  = reproduction allocation(no support) - reproduction allocation(support)
+revision_gain           = revision openness(support) - revision openness(no support)
+alternative_gain        = alternative access(support) - alternative access(no support)
+exit_gain               = exit capacity exercised(support) - exit capacity exercised(no support)
+```
+
+If any required H5 source episode or support/no-support pair is missing, `H5 = BLOCKED`; verification fails before effect thresholds are interpreted. Incomplete evidence is not a scientific negative result.
+
+`exit_gain` is evaluated only where `safe exit = present`. First average paired deltas over held-out seeds within each exact factorial cell; then average those cell means with equal weight across eligible cells. `exit_gain` averages only the safe-exit-present cell means. No episode-count weighting or fit/calibration seeds enter H5.
 
-**Survival rule:** compared with the no-support counterpart, support changes at least two agency measures by `0.15` or more in the predicted direction and does not directly force `exit`, `revise`, or `ignore`.
+**Survival rule:** the equal-weight aggregate persistence reduction is at least `0.15`, the equal-weight aggregate reproduction-allocation reduction is at least `0.15`, at least two of the three aggregate agency gains (`revision_gain`, `alternative_gain`, `exit_gain`) are at least `0.15`, and support never directly forces `exit`, `revise`, or `ignore`.
 
-**Falsifier:** repair works only through forced deletion, punishment, isolation, or an encoded anti-pattern preference.
+**Falsifier:** with all required pairs present, either aggregate persistence or reproduction reduction is below `0.15`, fewer than two aggregate agency gains reach `0.15`, or the apparent repair depends on forced deletion, punishment, isolation, or an encoded anti-pattern preference.
 
 ### H6 — broad-spectrum alternative
 
@@ -308,8 +362,8 @@ If `PX` performs as well as or better than specifically matched profiles across
 6. Fit only these candidate models to persistence:
    - exposure-only;
    - additive main effects;
-   - declared match × reinforcement interaction;
-   - one declared piecewise-threshold model.
+   - the H2 comparable-cell match × reinforcement interaction.
+   A piecewise-threshold or breakpoint model is explicitly out of scope for this run because no threshold form was frozen before the design merge. Its status is `UNRESOLVED`, not inferred from H2.
 7. Evaluate the frozen contrasts and held-out errors.
 8. Apply each hypothesis's survival and falsification rule independently.
 9. Emit `SURVIVED`, `FALSIFIED`, `UNRESOLVED`, or `BLOCKED` for every hypothesis.
@@ -399,7 +453,7 @@ A synthetic `FALSIFIED` result remains in the repository and changes the archite
 - the exact implementation language and agent update rule;
 - whether four synthetic damage profiles provide enough topology diversity;
 - whether the fixed thresholds are too permissive or too strict for useful separation;
-- the correct model family for nonlinear coalescence without baking the result into the simulator;
+- the threshold/breakpoint form for a later nonlinear-coalescence preregistration;
 - the exact AHBG adapter after this standalone falsifier;
 - whether repair should target host capacity, environmental dependency, network plurality, or all three independently.
 

research/psychsocio-metafauna/WORK_GRAPH.json

@@ -2,17 +2,17 @@
   "schema": "the-interdependency.psychsocio-metafauna-work-graph",
   "version": "0.1.0",
   "as_of": "2026-09-04",
-  "work_graph_sha256": "c0ab4f6f720136448570a71fa87c83e93399361949b84d6e15f0edf38e35c905",
+  "work_graph_sha256": "aa475076249eecdcfb114cdde55118828e41eeeb6fe708d9197e4976d1aed60d",
   "digest_contract": "sha256(canonical-json({participants,boundaries}); sort_keys=true; separators=(',',':'); participant order is significant)",
   "participants": [
     {
       "id": "stack",
       "kind": "repository",
       "repository": "The-Interdependency/stack",
-      "commit": "5b24db9a7fe40df4b2791e1137ade5de01c78942",
+      "commit": "6c3f94b1e6d77e8f1abd36edc53da5fda596b416",
       "path": "research/psychsocio-metafauna/",
-      "authority": "composition, provenance, and stack-local research placement",
-      "relation": "owner of this proposed cross-domain synthesis; owns no imported repository canon"
+      "authority": "composition, provenance, and stack-local research placement at workspace introduction",
+      "relation": "immutable introduction snapshot for this research workspace; current bytes are identified by the enclosing stack commit, avoiding recursive self-reference"
     },
     {
       "id": "skill-lib",
@@ -26,9 +26,9 @@
       "id": "metapat",
       "kind": "repository",
       "repository": "The-Interdependency/metapat",
-      "commit": "d6699e21b11c8f8394998efc34a468e2d6efc8b0",
-      "authority": "METAPAT root semantics and application-layer question forms",
-      "relation": "supplies distinction, boundary, relation, transformation, registration, symbolic transfer, and domain restraint"
+      "commit": "34d954aa1e2092e615b03a180500f6b6977f501e",
+      "authority": "METAPAT semantics present in the stack-pinned canonical view",
+      "relation": "supplies root-preserving distinction/relation framing and domain-restraint rules available in libs/metapat; no later METAPAT commit is imported implicitly"
     },
     {
       "id": "ucns",

research/psychsocio-metafauna/tests/test_contracts.py

@@ -76,13 +76,39 @@ def test_work_graph_identity_and_digest(self) -> None:
             else:
                 self.assertRegex(commit, HEX40)
 
+        stack_participant = next(item for item in participants if item["id"] == "stack")
+        self.assertEqual(
+            stack_participant["commit"],
+            "6c3f94b1e6d77e8f1abd36edc53da5fda596b416",
+        )
+        self.assertEqual(stack_participant["path"], "research/psychsocio-metafauna/")
+        self.assertIn("introduction snapshot", stack_participant["relation"])
+        self.assertIn("avoiding recursive self-reference", stack_participant["relation"])
+
+        metapat = next(item for item in participants if item["id"] == "metapat")
+        metapat_base = json.loads(
+            (STACK / "research" / "metapat" / "BASE.json").read_text(encoding="utf-8")
+        )
+        self.assertEqual(metapat["commit"], metapat_base["source_commit"])
+        self.assertIn("libs/metapat", metapat["relation"])
+
         payload = {"participants": participants, "boundaries": boundaries}
         canonical = json.dumps(
             payload, sort_keys=True, separators=(",", ":")
         ).encode("utf-8")
         observed = hashlib.sha256(canonical).hexdigest()
         self.assertEqual(observed, graph["work_graph_sha256"])
 
+    def test_workflow_rechecks_when_metapat_base_changes(self) -> None:
+        workflow = (STACK / ".github" / "workflows" / "psychsocio-metafauna.yml").read_text(
+            encoding="utf-8"
+        )
+        self.assertGreaterEqual(
+            workflow.count('"research/metapat/BASE.json"'),
+            2,
+            "pull_request and push path filters must both watch the exact METAPAT pin",
+        )
+
     def test_non_transfer_boundaries_fail_closed(self) -> None:
         boundaries = load_json("WORK_GRAPH.json")["boundaries"]
 
@@ -106,6 +132,75 @@ def test_non_transfer_boundaries_fail_closed(self) -> None:
         self.assertIsNone(boundaries["canon_selection"])
         self.assertTrue(boundaries["hmmm"])
 
+    def test_preregistration_decision_rules_are_independent_and_frozen(self) -> None:
+        prereg = (PROJECT / "PREREGISTRATION.md").read_text(encoding="utf-8")
+
+        self.assertIn("predeclared difference-in-differences contrast", prereg)
+        self.assertIn(
+            "Eligible H2 cells are restricted to the comparable high-demand `P1`–`P4` profiles.",
+            prereg,
+        )
+        self.assertIn("`PM`, `P0`, `PX`, and `PR` are excluded from H2", prereg)
+        self.assertIn("independent support is fixed to `absent`", prereg)
+        self.assertIn(
+            "`nonlinear coalescence threshold = UNRESOLVED` regardless of H2 status",
+            prereg,
+        )
+        self.assertIn(
+            "This falsifies only the frozen super-additive interaction precursor",
+            prereg,
+        )
+        self.assertNotIn("one declared piecewise-threshold model", prereg)
+        self.assertIn(
+            "does not reuse the candidate-capture configuration",
+            prereg,
+        )
+        self.assertIn(
+            "A pair is H4-eligible only when **both** episodes have adoption at or above `0.75`",
+            prereg,
+        )
+        self.assertIn(
+            "If no H4-eligible pairs exist, `H4 = UNRESOLVED`",
+            prereg,
+        )
+        self.assertIn(
+            "at least `90%` of the corresponding high-demand `Pi` sides",
+            prereg,
+        )
+        self.assertIn(
+            "high-demand side actually satisfies the frozen narrowing gates",
+            prereg,
+        )
+        self.assertIn(
+            "For every held-out seed `16..31`, pair the `independent support = present` episode",
+            prereg,
+        )
+        self.assertIn(
+            "then average those cell means with equal weight across eligible cells",
+            prereg,
+        )
+        self.assertIn(
+            "equal-weight aggregate reproduction-allocation reduction is at least `0.15`",
+            prereg,
+        )
+        self.assertIn(
+            "If any required H5 source episode or support/no-support pair is missing, `H5 = BLOCKED`",
+            prereg,
+        )
+        self.assertIn(
+            "retire only the frozen hypothesis component actually falsified",
+            prereg,
+        )
+        self.assertNotIn(
+            "retire coalescence as a distinct mechanism for this formal scope",
+            prereg,
+        )
+        self.assertNotIn(
+            "a required support/no-support pair is missing, or the apparent repair",
+            prereg,
+        )
+        self.assertNotIn("reduces persistence and reproduction demands", prereg)
+
     def test_human_and_machine_entrypoints_agree(self) -> None:
         readme = (PROJECT / "README.md").read_text(encoding="utf-8")
         prereg = (PROJECT / "PREREGISTRATION.md").read_text(encoding="utf-8")