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feat(analysis): 功率元件 / PMIC 產業鏈 × TW 供應鏈 deep-dive - #5

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feat(analysis): 功率元件 / PMIC 產業鏈 × TW 供應鏈 deep-dive#5
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@leehao921 leehao921 commented Jun 18, 2026

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Summary

新增 ~21k chars Traditional Chinese deep-dive (docs/analysis/2026-06-18-power-semi-pmic-deep-dive.md)，涵蓋 13 家 TW 個股，圍繞三大 convergent driver：

  1. 漲價循環啟動 — [[Infineon]] 2026/4/1 漲 5-15%、[[TI]] 7/1 跟進 PMIC+MOSFET、台廠 [[德微]]/[[強茂]]/[[茂達]] 同步漲價
  2. [[Nexperia]] (安世半導體) 出口管制轉單 — 荷蘭 2025/10/13 接管 [[Wingtech]] 中資控股 [[Nexperia]]、中國禁出口 ~70% EU 產能、2026/3 訂單分流到台灣 12 吋產線、2026/5 Wingtech $1.2B 訴訟
  3. AI 伺服器電源架構升級 — Open Compute ORv3 48V → ORv4 ±400VDC (800kW) → [[NVIDIA]] 800V HVDC (2026Q4-2027Q1 Phase 1-2)

13 家覆蓋範圍

Discrete IDM / fabless (6): [[強茂]] 2481 (全球第六大整流器), [[德微]] 3675 ([[Diodes]] 子公司), [[台半]] 5425 (車用 Tier 1), [[富鼎]] 8261 (高 GM 38%), [[大中]] 6435 (AI 伺服器 Dr.MOS 黑馬), [[杰力]] 5299 ([[華碩]] 系)

Wafer foundry + Epitaxy (3): [[漢磊]] 3707 (6 吋 SiC/GaN), [[世界先進]] 5347 (8 吋 BCD 龍頭, 與 [[NXP]] 合資 [[VSMC]] 12 吋), [[嘉晶]] 3016 (台灣唯一量產 SiC/GaN epi)

PMIC Integrated (4): [[矽力-KY]] 6415 (TW PMIC 龍頭 GM 51.62%), [[致新]] 8081 (NB/Server PMIC), [[茂達]] 6138 (PMIC + 散熱 IC 動能股 7/1 漲價), [[天鈺]] 4961 (面板 PMIC 防禦股, [[鴻海]] 系)

報告誠實揭露

  • §3.2 IGBT 結構性缺口 — TW 高壓 IGBT 模組仍由 Infineon/Mitsubishi/Fuji 把持，台廠無純玩家
  • §3.5 SiC 8 吋落後 — TW 落後 Wolfspeed/STM 至少 1-2 年
  • §5.6 [[漢磊]] 仍虧損 — 2025 GM -3.30%、淨損 7.57 億；連兩年虧損的結構性挑戰直書
  • §6 風險段 — [[Nexperia]] 美國 [[Polar Semiconductor]] 合作意味轉單窗口可能僅 6-18 個月

機制重用

scripts/build_themes.py 的 analysis_doc 欄位機制（與 sibling LEO PR Timeverse/My-TW-Coverage#4 相同 mechanism）— 未來 CoWoS / 矽光子 / HBM / EUV / 電動車 等主題只要在 THEME_DEFINITIONS 添加 analysis_doc 欄位，就會自動在 themes/<topic>.md 頂部注入 📖 deep-dive link，向後相容、不破壞既有 build 流程。

⚠️ Merge dependency note

本 PR 的 scripts/build_themes.py 包含 analysis_doc rendering logic（line 226 區），與 LEO PR #4 完全相同。先 merge 任一個都沒問題，第二個 merge 時需在 build_themes.py line 226 區手動合併（兩邊都是 additive 加同樣 5 行 if-block，trivial conflict）。

Test plan

  • python3 scripts/build_themes.py 功率半導體 重生 + 📖 link
  • 其他主題（CoWoS、矽光子、HBM 等）regenerate 不受影響（additive if theme_def.get(\"analysis_doc\") guard）
  • 主報告 20,996 chars（~7k 字 narrative + tables + appendices）
  • 61 unique proper-noun wikilinks（CLAUDE.md Golden Rule 1 minimum = 8）
  • 13 家個股 deep-dive 各含「角色 / Design-win / 營收占比 / 2026-2027 看點」固定結構
  • Appendix B verification log: 6/6 catalyst 量化主張 ≥2 source，Digitimes 12" 轉單 single-source 標 medium confidence

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

leehao921 and others added 2 commits June 18, 2026 23:33
@leehao921 @claude
feat(analysis): add power semiconductor / PMIC supply chain deep-dive
7aa6c12 
Triggered by 2026/4 Infineon-led 5-15% pricing cycle, Nexperia (Wingtech)
Dutch-government export control, and AI server 800V HVDC architecture
upgrade — three convergent catalysts hitting TW power semi cluster.

Deliverables:
- docs/analysis/2026-06-18-power-semi-pmic-deep-dive.md (~21k chars
  Traditional Chinese, 61 unique wikilinks, 13 individual ticker deep-dives)
- docs/superpowers/specs/2026-06-18-power-semi-pmic-design.md (full design spec)
- scripts/build_themes.py: (1) restore analysis_doc rendering logic
  (additive, backward compatible) — auto-injects 📖 header link when a
  THEME_DEFINITION provides analysis_doc field; (2) add new 功率半導體 theme
  pointing to the deep-dive
- themes/功率半導體.md: new auto-generated theme index with 📖 deep-dive link

Coverage spans 3 sub-clusters per user direction:
- Discrete IDM/fabless: 強茂 2481, 德微 3675, 台半 5425, 富鼎 8261,
  大中 6435, 杰力 5299
- Wafer foundry / Epitaxy: 漢磊 3707 (SiC/GaN), 世界先進 5347 (8" BCD),
  嘉晶 3016 (SiC/GaN epi)
- PMIC integrated: 矽力-KY 6415, 致新 8081, 茂達 6138, 天鈺 4961

Three catalysts each verified to ≥2 sources:
- Infineon 4/1 5-15% hike confirmed via 工商時報 + 數位時代 + Smart 自學網
- TI 7/1 PMIC+MOSFET second wave confirmed via Pocketstock + 數位時代
- Nexperia event timeline (Dutch 10/13 takeover, China retaliation,
  Wingtech $1.2B lawsuit) via Wikipedia + Nexperia official press
- NVIDIA 800V HVDC 2026Q4 timeline via SemiAnalysis + Szsanyi
- Open Compute ORv3/ORv4 specs via OCP + Molex

Honesty markers:
- §3.2 IGBT TW gap (high-voltage power modules still dominated by
  Infineon/Mitsubishi/Fuji — TW structural weakness)
- §3.5 SiC 8" wafer lag (1-2 years behind Wolfspeed/STM)
- §5.6 漢磊 still loss-making (2025 GM -3.30%) — call this out explicitly
- §6 risks include Nexperia US capacity ramp narrowing TW transfer window

Confidence markers: unmarked = IR/法說會/年報 confirmed, *（市場傳聞）* =
press-only, *（推測）* = inferred from product line.

Note: this PR's build_themes.py adds analysis_doc rendering logic. The
sibling LEO satellite PR (Timeverse#4) adds the same logic
plus the 低軌衛星 analysis_doc field. Merge order: either PR first; the
second merge will need to resolve the duplicate rendering-logic block in
build_themes.py around line 226 (additive lines, easy to merge by hand).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@leehao921 @claude
docs(analysis): retrofit PMIC deep-dive per CLAUDE.md 分析框架
a2f7d8d 
Per the newly-established analytical framework in CLAUDE.md:
1. Add §6.3 對偶 long/short candidate mapping — every catalyst/risk
   now names symmetric winner + loser pair (e.g., Nexperia 轉單 long
   強茂/台半/德微/富鼎 → short Nexperia/Wingtech itself + 對 EU
   下游過度依賴的 PMIC 供應商)
2. Expand Appendix B to include channel-check 加權 (B.1) — explains
   per-source trust rationale. Renumbered original verification
   summary to B.2.

Framework principle applied: 漢磊 (3707) loss-making is structural
not cyclical (8" vs 6" scale race); 矽力-KY (6415) China share gain
is paired with 致新 (8081) / 茂達 (6138) China export squeeze.
These are now explicit in the pairing table.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
leehao921 added a commit to leehao921/Semiconductor-Supply-Chain that referenced this pull request Jul 9, 2026
@leehao921
Merge pull request Timeverse#5 from leehao921/worktree-agent-afab1402
abf9878 
Unit 3: MOPS 重大訊息 collector
leehao921 added a commit to leehao921/Semiconductor-Supply-Chain that referenced this pull request Jul 9, 2026
@leehao921 @claude
data(valuation): refresh 920 tickers 2026-05-12
f3c41a8 
Routine weekly valuation refresh. Updates 估值指標 section only
(price, P/E, Forward P/E, P/S, P/B, EV/EBITDA, period dates).
Financial tables and enrichment content untouched per CLAUDE.md
Golden Rule Timeverse#5.

Generated by the TWSE+TPEX bulk OpenAPI rewrite landed in the
preceding commit (b15d32c).

Command: python scripts/update_valuation.py
Source: TWSE/TPEX OpenAPI @ 2026-05-11 close, yfinance fallback
Scope: all sectors, 920 ticker files touched

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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