[Phase 2] Add market consensus metrics, dispersion analytics, and outlier discovery

dashboard/backend/CHANGELOG.md

@@ -7,6 +7,14 @@ and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0
 
 ## [Unreleased]
 
+### Added
+
+- **Market Consensus & Deviations — Phase 2**: Expanded market consensus analytics with richer consensus and dispersion metrics plus explicit best-value fields for bookmaker outlier workflows.
+  - `prisma/schema.prisma`: Enhanced `MarketConsensus` model with `consensusPrice`, `medianLine`, `meanLine`, `modeLine`, `range`, `interquartileRange`, `bestValueSide`, `bestValueBookmaker`, `bestValueLine`, `sharpBookWeight`, and a `marketType` index.
+  - `prisma/migrations/20260514000001_enhance_market_consensus_phase2/migration.sql`: Adds/backfills new `market_consensus` columns and creates an index on `market_type`.
+  - `src/services/market-consensus.service.ts`: `calculateConsensus()` now computes additional phase-2 market-truth metrics and persists them; added `identifyOutliers(gameId)` for per-market outlier discovery.
+  - `tests/market-consensus.service.test.ts`: New unit tests covering phase-2 spreads consensus calculations and outlier identification behavior.
+
 ---
 
 ## [0.3.10] - 2026-05-14

dashboard/backend/prisma/migrations/20260514000001_enhance_market_consensus_phase2/migration.sql

@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
+-- AlterTable
+ALTER TABLE "market_consensus"
+  ADD COLUMN "consensus_price" INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+  ADD COLUMN "median_line" DECIMAL(8,2) NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+  ADD COLUMN "mean_line" DECIMAL(8,2) NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+  ADD COLUMN "mode_line" DECIMAL(8,2),
+  ADD COLUMN "range" DECIMAL(8,2) NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+  ADD COLUMN "interquartile_range" DECIMAL(8,2) NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+  ADD COLUMN "best_value_side" VARCHAR(20) NOT NULL DEFAULT 'home',
+  ADD COLUMN "best_value_bookmaker" VARCHAR(50) NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
+  ADD COLUMN "best_value_line" DECIMAL(8,2) NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+  ADD COLUMN "sharp_book_weight" DECIMAL(5,2) NOT NULL DEFAULT 0;
+
+-- Backfill new columns from existing values where possible
+UPDATE "market_consensus"
+SET
+  "consensus_price" = CASE
+    WHEN "market_type" = 'h2h' THEN ROUND("consensus_line")::INTEGER
+    ELSE 0
+  END,
+  "median_line" = "consensus_line",
+  "mean_line" = "consensus_line",
+  "range" = 0,
+  "interquartile_range" = 0,
+  "best_value_side" = COALESCE("best_value"->>'side', 'home'),
+  "best_value_bookmaker" = COALESCE("best_value"->>'bookmaker', ''),
+  "best_value_line" = COALESCE(NULLIF("best_value"->>'line', '')::DECIMAL, "consensus_line"),
+  "sharp_book_weight" = 0;
+
+-- CreateIndex
+CREATE INDEX "market_consensus_market_type_idx" ON "market_consensus"("market_type");

dashboard/backend/prisma/schema.prisma

@@ -178,17 +178,26 @@ model MarketConsensus {
 
   // Consensus metrics
   consensusLine     Decimal  @map("consensus_line") @db.Decimal(8, 2)
+  consensusPrice    Int      @map("consensus_price")
+  medianLine        Decimal  @map("median_line") @db.Decimal(8, 2)
+  meanLine          Decimal  @map("mean_line") @db.Decimal(8, 2)
+  modeLine          Decimal? @map("mode_line") @db.Decimal(8, 2)
   standardDeviation Decimal  @map("standard_deviation") @db.Decimal(8, 2)
+  range             Decimal  @db.Decimal(8, 2)
+  interquartileRange Decimal @map("interquartile_range") @db.Decimal(8, 2)
   outlierBookmakers Json     @map("outlier_bookmakers")    // [{bookmaker, line, deviation}]
+  bestValueSide     String   @map("best_value_side") @db.VarChar(20)
+  bestValueBookmaker String  @map("best_value_bookmaker") @db.VarChar(50)
+  bestValueLine     Decimal  @map("best_value_line") @db.Decimal(8, 2)
   bookmakerCount    Int      @map("bookmaker_count")
-
-  // Value indicators
+  sharpBookWeight   Decimal  @map("sharp_book_weight") @db.Decimal(5, 2)
   disagreementScore Int      @map("disagreement_score")    // 1-100
-  bestValue         Json     @map("best_value")            // {side, bookmaker, line, impliedProb}
+  bestValue         Json     @map("best_value")            // compatibility payload
 
   game              Game     @relation(fields: [gameId], references: [id], onDelete: Cascade)
 
   @@index([gameId])
+  @@index([marketType])
   @@index([disagreementScore])
   @@index([calculatedAt])
   @@map("market_consensus")