Add Phase 2 bookmaker performance analytics models and service

dashboard/backend/CHANGELOG.md

@@ -14,6 +14,11 @@ and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0
   - `prisma/migrations/20260514000001_enhance_market_consensus_phase2/migration.sql`: Adds/backfills new `market_consensus` columns and creates an index on `market_type`.
   - `src/services/market-consensus.service.ts`: `calculateConsensus()` now computes additional phase-2 market-truth metrics and persists them; added `identifyOutliers(gameId)` for per-market outlier discovery.
   - `tests/market-consensus.service.test.ts`: New unit tests covering phase-2 spreads consensus calculations and outlier identification behavior.
+- **Bookmaker Performance Analytics — Phase 2** (Issue: Bookmaker Analytics): Added persistent bookmaker analytics models and service calculations for value, sharpness, and reliability ranking.
+  - `prisma/schema.prisma`: Added `BookmakerAnalytics` and `BookmakerMovementEvent` models; linked movement events to `Game`.
+  - `prisma/migrations/20260514000002_add_bookmaker_analytics_phase2/migration.sql`: Creates `bookmaker_analytics` and `bookmaker_movement_events` tables, indexes, and FK constraints.
+  - `src/services/bookmaker-analytics.service.ts`: New `BookmakerAnalyticsService` with `calculateBookmakerMetrics(bookmaker)` and `rankBookmakers(criteria)` methods.
+  - `tests/bookmaker-analytics.service.test.ts`: Added unit tests for metric calculation/upsert behavior and criteria-based ranking.
 
 ---
 

dashboard/backend/prisma/migrations/20260514000002_add_bookmaker_analytics_phase2/migration.sql

@@ -0,0 +1,63 @@
+-- CreateTable
+CREATE TABLE "bookmaker_analytics" (
+    "id" UUID NOT NULL DEFAULT gen_random_uuid(),
+    "bookmaker" VARCHAR(50) NOT NULL,
+    "average_clv_offered" DECIMAL(5,2) NOT NULL,
+    "best_odds_frequency" DECIMAL(5,2) NOT NULL,
+    "margin_vs_consensus" DECIMAL(5,2) NOT NULL,
+    "outlier_frequency" DECIMAL(5,2) NOT NULL,
+    "first_mover_frequency" DECIMAL(5,2) NOT NULL,
+    "line_movement_lag" INTEGER NOT NULL,
+    "sharp_book_rating" INTEGER NOT NULL,
+    "market_efficiency" DECIMAL(5,2) NOT NULL,
+    "sports_covered" TEXT[],
+    "markets_covered" TEXT[],
+    "uptime_percentage" DECIMAL(5,2) NOT NULL,
+    "odds_update_frequency" INTEGER NOT NULL,
+    "average_odds_age" INTEGER NOT NULL,
+    "limit_profile" VARCHAR(20) NOT NULL,
+    "estimated_max_bet" DECIMAL(10,2),
+    "account_limit_reports" INTEGER NOT NULL,
+    "total_games_offered" INTEGER NOT NULL,
+    "total_markets_offered" INTEGER NOT NULL,
+    "average_margin" DECIMAL(5,2) NOT NULL,
+    "user_rating" DECIMAL(3,2),
+    "user_review_count" INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+    "recommendation_score" INTEGER NOT NULL,
+    "calculated_at" TIMESTAMPTZ(6) NOT NULL DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP,
+    "updated_at" TIMESTAMPTZ(6) NOT NULL DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP,
+
+    CONSTRAINT "bookmaker_analytics_pkey" PRIMARY KEY ("id")
+);
+
+-- CreateTable
+CREATE TABLE "bookmaker_movement_events" (
+    "id" UUID NOT NULL DEFAULT gen_random_uuid(),
+    "game_id" UUID NOT NULL,
+    "market_type" VARCHAR(20) NOT NULL,
+    "detected_at" TIMESTAMPTZ(6) NOT NULL DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP,
+    "first_mover" VARCHAR(50) NOT NULL,
+    "first_move_time" TIMESTAMPTZ(6) NOT NULL,
+    "followers" JSONB NOT NULL,
+    "movement_size" DECIMAL(5,2) NOT NULL,
+
+    CONSTRAINT "bookmaker_movement_events_pkey" PRIMARY KEY ("id")
+);
+
+-- CreateIndex
+CREATE UNIQUE INDEX "bookmaker_analytics_bookmaker_key" ON "bookmaker_analytics"("bookmaker");
+
+-- CreateIndex
+CREATE INDEX "bookmaker_analytics_best_odds_frequency_idx" ON "bookmaker_analytics"("best_odds_frequency");
+
+-- CreateIndex
+CREATE INDEX "bookmaker_analytics_sharp_book_rating_idx" ON "bookmaker_analytics"("sharp_book_rating");
+
+-- CreateIndex
+CREATE INDEX "bookmaker_movement_events_first_mover_idx" ON "bookmaker_movement_events"("first_mover");
+
+-- CreateIndex
+CREATE INDEX "bookmaker_movement_events_detected_at_idx" ON "bookmaker_movement_events"("detected_at");
+
+-- AddForeignKey
+ALTER TABLE "bookmaker_movement_events" ADD CONSTRAINT "bookmaker_movement_events_game_id_fkey" FOREIGN KEY ("game_id") REFERENCES "games"("id") ON DELETE CASCADE ON UPDATE CASCADE;

dashboard/backend/prisma/schema.prisma

@@ -160,6 +160,7 @@ model Game {
   playerStats          PlayerGameStats[]
   marketConsensus      MarketConsensus[]
   lineMovements        LineMovement[]
+  bookmakerMovementEvents BookmakerMovementEvent[]
   sharpMoneyIndicators SharpMoneyIndicator[]
 
   @@index([commenceTime])
@@ -348,6 +349,73 @@ model LineMovement {
   @@map("line_movements")
 }
 
+// Bookmaker-level performance analytics
+model BookmakerAnalytics {
+  id                  String   @id @default(dbgenerated("gen_random_uuid()")) @db.Uuid
+  bookmaker           String   @unique @db.VarChar(50)
+
+  // Odds quality metrics
+  averageCLVOffered   Decimal  @map("average_clv_offered") @db.Decimal(5, 2)
+  bestOddsFrequency   Decimal  @map("best_odds_frequency") @db.Decimal(5, 2)
+  marginVsConsensus   Decimal  @map("margin_vs_consensus") @db.Decimal(5, 2)
+  outlierFrequency    Decimal  @map("outlier_frequency") @db.Decimal(5, 2)
+
+  // Market making behavior
+  firstMoverFrequency Decimal  @map("first_mover_frequency") @db.Decimal(5, 2)
+  lineMovementLag     Int      @map("line_movement_lag")
+  sharpBookRating     Int      @map("sharp_book_rating")
+  marketEfficiency    Decimal  @map("market_efficiency") @db.Decimal(5, 2)
+
+  // Coverage & reliability
+  sportsCovered       String[] @map("sports_covered")
+  marketsCovered      String[] @map("markets_covered")
+  uptimePercentage    Decimal  @map("uptime_percentage") @db.Decimal(5, 2)
+  oddsUpdateFrequency Int      @map("odds_update_frequency")
+  averageOddsAge      Int      @map("average_odds_age")
+
+  // Limits & accessibility
+  limitProfile        String   @map("limit_profile") @db.VarChar(20)
+  estimatedMaxBet     Decimal? @map("estimated_max_bet") @db.Decimal(10, 2)
+  accountLimitReports Int      @map("account_limit_reports")
+
+  // Historical performance
+  totalGamesOffered   Int      @map("total_games_offered")
+  totalMarketsOffered Int      @map("total_markets_offered")
+  averageMargin       Decimal  @map("average_margin") @db.Decimal(5, 2)
+
+  // Reputation
+  userRating          Decimal? @map("user_rating") @db.Decimal(3, 2)
+  userReviewCount     Int      @default(0) @map("user_review_count")
+  recommendationScore Int      @map("recommendation_score")
+
+  // Metadata
+  calculatedAt        DateTime @default(now()) @map("calculated_at") @db.Timestamptz(6)
+  updatedAt           DateTime @default(now()) @updatedAt @map("updated_at") @db.Timestamptz(6)
+
+  @@index([bestOddsFrequency])
+  @@index([sharpBookRating])
+  @@map("bookmaker_analytics")
+}
+
+// Bookmaker movement events (who moved first and how quickly others followed)
+model BookmakerMovementEvent {
+  id            String   @id @default(dbgenerated("gen_random_uuid()")) @db.Uuid
+  gameId        String   @map("game_id") @db.Uuid
+  marketType    String   @map("market_type") @db.VarChar(20)
+  detectedAt    DateTime @default(now()) @map("detected_at") @db.Timestamptz(6)
+
+  firstMover    String   @map("first_mover") @db.VarChar(50)
+  firstMoveTime DateTime @map("first_move_time") @db.Timestamptz(6)
+  followers     Json
+  movementSize  Decimal  @map("movement_size") @db.Decimal(5, 2)
+
+  game          Game     @relation(fields: [gameId], references: [id], onDelete: Cascade)
+
+  @@index([firstMover])
+  @@index([detectedAt])
+  @@map("bookmaker_movement_events")
+}
+
 // Users table (for OAuth2 authentication)
 model User {
   id          String    @id @default(dbgenerated("gen_random_uuid()")) @db.Uuid