fix(P1): fail-closed install/settle/X-base/cloud-write + full receipt sha256

.github/workflows/ci.yml

@@ -6,6 +6,9 @@ on:
   pull_request:
     branches: [ main ]
 
+permissions:
+  contents: read
+
 jobs:
   build:
     runs-on: ubuntu-latest

.github/workflows/hermes-evals.yml

@@ -22,6 +22,10 @@ jobs:
       PYTHONPATH: src
     steps:
       - uses: actions/checkout@v4
+        with:
+          # SoT-cleared is local git ancestry of references/claude-sot-cleared.json
+          # (no live GitHub fetch in doctor). Default depth=1 hides the pin SHA.
+          fetch-depth: 0
       - name: Setup Python
         uses: actions/setup-python@v5
         with:

.gitignore

@@ -39,6 +39,7 @@ build/
 !data/backfill/**/*.json
 !data/phylogeny/**/*.json
 !.claude-plugin/plugin.json
+!references/claude-sot-cleared.json
 
 # Temp / build output
 tmp/

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -2,6 +2,17 @@
 
 ## Unreleased
 
+- **P1 fail-closed hardening:** Claude `init` / `install.sh --claude` helpers
+  are transactional (symlink refuse, target-keyed backup, staged smoke /
+  UNVERIFIED). Unguarded `copy_claude_helpers` removed. Scored `settle()` /
+  `settle_and_log()` require token or TTY confirm, non-empty `authority.ref`,
+  and non-advisory kind; piped yes is refused. X API base allowlists
+  `api.twitter.com` / `api.x.com` (https only). Cloud vector writes require
+  `HYPERLEX_CLOUD_WRITE=1` or TTY `--i-understand-cloud-write`. `doctor`
+  emits `CLAUDE_SOT_CLEARED=` from local pin/provenance (Skill Validation
+  fetches full git history so the pin SHA is locally present). `receipt.integrity`
+  is full sha256; `emit_receipt(..., validate=True)` default; legacy 12-char
+  verify only with `HYPERLEX_RECEIPT_LEGACY_INTEGRITY=1`.
 - **Claude Code host (additive):** `.claude-plugin/plugin.json`, project
   `CLAUDE.md`, slash helpers (`.claude/skills/` + plugin `commands/`),
   `install.sh --claude` / `--claude-plugin`, `scripts/claude_hlx.sh`,

SKILL.md

@@ -183,7 +183,7 @@ $HLX pipeline "rizz" --route offline
 $HLX ingest "locked in"                # same as pipeline (use --raw-only for signal only)
 $HLX pipeline "sigma rizz locked in"   # expands to atoms automatically
 $HLX pending                           # open forecasts
-$HLX settle --forecast-id <id> --decision TRUE
+$HLX settle --forecast-id <id> --decision TRUE --authority-ref <ref> --settle-token "$HYPERLEX_SETTLE_TOKEN"
 $HLX score-series --mean-shift --verify-chain
 $HLX scan --route offline --receipt --forecasts --append-log
 $HLX risk-schedule --tier MODERATE --schedule-out /tmp/hlx-cron

SPEC.md

@@ -16,7 +16,7 @@ Extended: `hyperlex.API_EXTENDED` (additive; includes Phase 5 simulation)
 - `compute_lineage_confidence(hits, family_terms, corpus) -> (float, dict)`
 
 ### Receipts
-- `emit_receipt(result, out_dir=None, validate=False, append_ledger=True, ledger_path=None) -> Path`
+- `emit_receipt(result, out_dir=None, validate=True, append_ledger=True, ledger_path=None) -> Path`
 - `verify_receipt(payload) -> (bool, str)`
 
 ### Calibration

docs/api-v1.md

@@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ or an explicit deprecation window.
 | `ingest_signal(query, source="mock")` | `str` signal |
 | `fetch_ingest(query, source="mock", ...)` | structured ingest + `source_fingerprint` |
 | `detect_memetic_patterns(...)` | result dict; `provenance.brier` is always `null` |
-| `emit_receipt(result, ...)` | writes receipt JSON; optional ledger append |
+| `emit_receipt(result, ...)` | writes receipt JSON with full sha256 `receipt.integrity`; `validate=True` default (`--no-validate` CLI escape) |
 | `extract_forecasts(result)` | list of forecasts; **no** Brier field |
 | `settle` / `score_pair` / `score_series` | Brier only after settlement; else `NOT_COMPUTABLE` |
 | `relay_from_result(result)` | `RUNE.HLX.*` envelopes |

docs/brier-calibration.md

@@ -233,6 +233,7 @@ python3 scripts/hyperlex.py extract-forecasts --input out/result.json --append-l
 
 # Operator settles a forecast (TRUE/FALSE/VOID/CONFLICT)
 python3 scripts/hyperlex.py settle --forecast-id <id> --decision TRUE \
+  --authority-ref operator@local --settle-token "$HYPERLEX_SETTLE_TOKEN" \
   --authority-note "human review confirmed family" --export-ledger
 
 # Recompute series + optional mean-shift diagnostic + chain verify

docs/claude-runtime-contract.md

@@ -72,6 +72,10 @@ Operator data is unchanged (outside the skill tree):
 3. Never invent numeric Brier. Open analysis keeps `provenance.brier` null.
 4. Never auto-settle. Ask for TRUE|FALSE|VOID|CONFLICT, then run `settle`.
 5. `doctor` reports `CLAUDE_OK` or `CLAUDE_MISSING`. Missing does not fail Hermes.
+   `CLAUDE_SOT_CLEARED=true|false` comes from the local pin
+   `references/claude-sot-cleared.json` plus git/install provenance (not a
+   live GitHub fetch). A shallow clone that lacks the pin commit stays
+   uncleared. Claimed Claude packaging + uncleared fails doctor.
 
 ## Authority
 

docs/claude-skill.md

@@ -84,7 +84,10 @@ step: `pending` → operator decision → `settle` → `score-series`.
 | Contract | Same `SKILL.md` | Same `SKILL.md` + Claude section |
 
 Fail-closed rules do not change: no invented Brier, no auto-settle, no
-phenomenology claims.
+phenomenology claims. `hyperlex doctor` emits `CLAUDE_SOT_CLEARED=true|false`
+from the local pin `references/claude-sot-cleared.json` plus git/install
+provenance (not a live GitHub fetch). When Claude packaging is installed or
+claimed and the pin does not match, doctor fails.
 
 ## See also
 

docs/spec.md

@@ -16,7 +16,7 @@ Extended: `hyperlex.API_EXTENDED` (additive; includes Phase 5 simulation)
 - `compute_lineage_confidence(hits, family_terms, corpus) -> (float, dict)`
 
 ### Receipts
-- `emit_receipt(result, out_dir=None, validate=False, append_ledger=True, ledger_path=None) -> Path`
+- `emit_receipt(result, out_dir=None, validate=True, append_ledger=True, ledger_path=None) -> Path`
 - `verify_receipt(payload) -> (bool, str)`
 
 ### Calibration

examples/receipts/golden/MANIFEST.json

@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@
       "file": "betting-sharp.json",
       "has_source_fingerprint": true,
       "id": "betting-sharp",
-      "integrity": "13740d87af49",
+      "integrity": "13740d87af49d5ed6a7d8a8d1ec6a3aaa4a8e37e413b137a6907894b7af6e034",
       "lineage_family": "betting-sharp",
       "n_forecasts": 3,
       "query": "sharp steam square revenge wiseguy hammer",
@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@
       "file": "crypto-degen.json",
       "has_source_fingerprint": true,
       "id": "crypto-degen",
-      "integrity": "138a57d9b7d1",
+      "integrity": "138a57d9b7d142c72416177191b81674617728b6690e48352b93ac1c85d42c8e",
       "lineage_family": "crypto-degen",
       "n_forecasts": 3,
       "query": "hodl diamond hands rekt degen moon",
@@ -30,7 +30,7 @@
       "file": "brainrot-aura.json",
       "has_source_fingerprint": true,
       "id": "brainrot-aura",
-      "integrity": "e8e43b010371",
+      "integrity": "e8e43b0103716d19d015c238b0d9fb8aef843aa687ac56697223d38706629abc",
       "lineage_family": "brainrot-aura",
       "n_forecasts": 3,
       "query": "brainrot aura farming mid cooked",
@@ -42,7 +42,7 @@
       "file": "ai-native.json",
       "has_source_fingerprint": true,
       "id": "ai-native",
-      "integrity": "88573ce1608b",
+      "integrity": "88573ce1608b2f02b456a484080066f36a688dffc58fc6077e0cec3fcefe53f0",
       "lineage_family": "ai-native",
       "n_forecasts": 3,
       "query": "agentic slop skill issue hallucinate",
@@ -54,7 +54,7 @@
       "file": "kinship-address.json",
       "has_source_fingerprint": true,
       "id": "kinship-address",
-      "integrity": "885f482d77d8",
+      "integrity": "885f482d77d8d49eb60038b18c2d1f70f3a068f099b39df7d3c5077ca0981372",
       "lineage_family": "kinship-address",
       "n_forecasts": 3,
       "query": "bro sis twin unc cuz family",
@@ -66,7 +66,7 @@
       "file": "political-status.json",
       "has_source_fingerprint": true,
       "id": "political-status",
-      "integrity": "2a4fcf971e08",
+      "integrity": "2a4fcf971e08baebb53b648e8fac0fc7065aff6d35de12ca856b4c536a6a61f1",
       "lineage_family": "political-status",
       "n_forecasts": 3,
       "query": "based redpilled cope seethe dilate",
@@ -78,7 +78,7 @@
       "file": "gaming-meta.json",
       "has_source_fingerprint": true,
       "id": "gaming-meta",
-      "integrity": "74d35f2b5769",
+      "integrity": "74d35f2b57698ea9eb00f05f5723b6d618b8e69011a049438fdfe6fbbfb19354",
       "lineage_family": "gaming-meta",
       "n_forecasts": 3,
       "query": "nerf buff meta sweaty smurf gg",
@@ -90,7 +90,7 @@
       "file": "workplace-corp.json",
       "has_source_fingerprint": true,
       "id": "workplace-corp",
-      "integrity": "0fcc0f79803d",
+      "integrity": "0fcc0f79803dac8a62abd2d1883fc2fa7b8451f6a8ae7add9e0b3425643b6fcb",
       "lineage_family": "workplace-corp",
       "n_forecasts": 3,
       "query": "quiet quitting rto bandwidth act your wage",
@@ -102,7 +102,7 @@
       "file": "open-no-lineage.json",
       "has_source_fingerprint": true,
       "id": "open-no-lineage",
-      "integrity": "48d6b080d68f",
+      "integrity": "48d6b080d68fb9cdd71e5350b8c308f762a263379633590b44033168b13b037b",
       "lineage_family": null,
       "n_forecasts": 2,
       "query": "the weather is mild with clouds",

examples/receipts/golden/ai-native.json

@@ -175,9 +175,9 @@
     "version": "0.2.5"
   },
   "receipt": {
-    "integrity": "88573ce1608b",
+    "integrity": "88573ce1608b2f02b456a484080066f36a688dffc58fc6077e0cec3fcefe53f0",
     "path": "examples/receipts/golden/ai-native.json"
   },
   "recommendation": "Bind RUNE.HLX.COMMUNICATION_RELAY via hyperlex.relay; extract_forecasts for calibration; cron LIVE_EMERGENCE_SCAN.",
   "speculative": "EMERGENT hyperstition risk. narrative circulating but no market confirmation yet. Virality prediction (SPECULATIVE): 0.587 \u0394=0.115. Brier requires settlement via hyperlex.calibration \u2014 not claimed on open forecasts."
-}
+}

examples/receipts/golden/betting-sharp.json

@@ -182,9 +182,9 @@
     "version": "0.2.5"
   },
   "receipt": {
-    "integrity": "13740d87af49",
+    "integrity": "13740d87af49d5ed6a7d8a8d1ec6a3aaa4a8e37e413b137a6907894b7af6e034",
     "path": "examples/receipts/golden/betting-sharp.json"
   },
   "recommendation": "Bind RUNE.HLX.COMMUNICATION_RELAY via hyperlex.relay; extract_forecasts for calibration; cron LIVE_EMERGENCE_SCAN.",
   "speculative": "ACTUALIZING hyperstition risk. slang -> public pressure -> line movement -> confirmed. Virality prediction (SPECULATIVE): 0.906 \u0394=0.18. Brier requires settlement via hyperlex.calibration \u2014 not claimed on open forecasts."
-}
+}

examples/receipts/golden/brainrot-aura.json

@@ -177,9 +177,9 @@
     "version": "0.2.5"
   },
   "receipt": {
-    "integrity": "e8e43b010371",
+    "integrity": "e8e43b0103716d19d015c238b0d9fb8aef843aa687ac56697223d38706629abc",
     "path": "examples/receipts/golden/brainrot-aura.json"
   },
   "recommendation": "Bind RUNE.HLX.COMMUNICATION_RELAY via hyperlex.relay; extract_forecasts for calibration; cron LIVE_EMERGENCE_SCAN.",
   "speculative": "EMERGENT hyperstition risk. narrative circulating but no market confirmation yet. Virality prediction (SPECULATIVE): 0.587 \u0394=0.115. Brier requires settlement via hyperlex.calibration \u2014 not claimed on open forecasts."
-}
+}

examples/receipts/golden/crypto-degen.json

@@ -177,9 +177,9 @@
     "version": "0.2.5"
   },
   "receipt": {
-    "integrity": "138a57d9b7d1",
+    "integrity": "138a57d9b7d142c72416177191b81674617728b6690e48352b93ac1c85d42c8e",
     "path": "examples/receipts/golden/crypto-degen.json"
   },
   "recommendation": "Bind RUNE.HLX.COMMUNICATION_RELAY via hyperlex.relay; extract_forecasts for calibration; cron LIVE_EMERGENCE_SCAN.",
   "speculative": "EMERGENT hyperstition risk. narrative circulating but no market confirmation yet. Virality prediction (SPECULATIVE): 0.744 \u0394=0.105. Brier requires settlement via hyperlex.calibration \u2014 not claimed on open forecasts."
-}
+}

examples/receipts/golden/gaming-meta.json

@@ -182,9 +182,9 @@
     "version": "0.2.5"
   },
   "receipt": {
-    "integrity": "74d35f2b5769",
+    "integrity": "74d35f2b57698ea9eb00f05f5723b6d618b8e69011a049438fdfe6fbbfb19354",
     "path": "examples/receipts/golden/gaming-meta.json"
   },
   "recommendation": "Bind RUNE.HLX.COMMUNICATION_RELAY via hyperlex.relay; extract_forecasts for calibration; cron LIVE_EMERGENCE_SCAN.",
   "speculative": "EMERGENT hyperstition risk. narrative circulating but no market confirmation yet. Virality prediction (SPECULATIVE): 0.604 \u0394=0.079. Brier requires settlement via hyperlex.calibration \u2014 not claimed on open forecasts."
-}
+}

examples/receipts/golden/kinship-address.json

@@ -161,9 +161,9 @@
     "version": "0.2.5"
   },
   "receipt": {
-    "integrity": "885f482d77d8",
+    "integrity": "885f482d77d8d49eb60038b18c2d1f70f3a068f099b39df7d3c5077ca0981372",
     "path": "examples/receipts/golden/kinship-address.json"
   },
   "recommendation": "Bind RUNE.HLX.COMMUNICATION_RELAY via hyperlex.relay; extract_forecasts for calibration; cron LIVE_EMERGENCE_SCAN.",
   "speculative": "EMERGENT hyperstition risk. narrative circulating but no market confirmation yet. Virality prediction (SPECULATIVE): 0.519 \u0394=0.054. Brier requires settlement via hyperlex.calibration \u2014 not claimed on open forecasts."
-}
+}

examples/receipts/golden/open-no-lineage.json

@@ -115,9 +115,9 @@
     "version": "0.2.5"
   },
   "receipt": {
-    "integrity": "48d6b080d68f",
+    "integrity": "48d6b080d68fb9cdd71e5350b8c308f762a263379633590b44033168b13b037b",
     "path": "examples/receipts/golden/open-no-lineage.json"
   },
   "recommendation": "Bind RUNE.HLX.COMMUNICATION_RELAY via hyperlex.relay; extract_forecasts for calibration; cron LIVE_EMERGENCE_SCAN.",
   "speculative": "EMERGENT hyperstition risk. narrative circulating but no market confirmation yet. Virality prediction (SPECULATIVE): 0.37 \u0394=-0.073. Brier requires settlement via hyperlex.calibration \u2014 not claimed on open forecasts."
-}
+}

examples/receipts/golden/political-status.json

@@ -177,9 +177,9 @@
     "version": "0.2.5"
   },
   "receipt": {
-    "integrity": "2a4fcf971e08",
+    "integrity": "2a4fcf971e08baebb53b648e8fac0fc7065aff6d35de12ca856b4c536a6a61f1",
     "path": "examples/receipts/golden/political-status.json"
   },
   "recommendation": "Bind RUNE.HLX.COMMUNICATION_RELAY via hyperlex.relay; extract_forecasts for calibration; cron LIVE_EMERGENCE_SCAN.",
   "speculative": "EMERGENT hyperstition risk. narrative circulating but no market confirmation yet. Virality prediction (SPECULATIVE): 0.573 \u0394=0.116. Brier requires settlement via hyperlex.calibration \u2014 not claimed on open forecasts."
-}
+}

examples/receipts/golden/workplace-corp.json

@@ -178,9 +178,9 @@
     "version": "0.2.5"
   },
   "receipt": {
-    "integrity": "0fcc0f79803d",
+    "integrity": "0fcc0f79803dac8a62abd2d1883fc2fa7b8451f6a8ae7add9e0b3425643b6fcb",
     "path": "examples/receipts/golden/workplace-corp.json"
   },
   "recommendation": "Bind RUNE.HLX.COMMUNICATION_RELAY via hyperlex.relay; extract_forecasts for calibration; cron LIVE_EMERGENCE_SCAN.",
   "speculative": "EMERGENT hyperstition risk. narrative circulating but no market confirmation yet. Virality prediction (SPECULATIVE): 0.611 \u0394=0.041. Brier requires settlement via hyperlex.calibration \u2014 not claimed on open forecasts."
-}
+}

install.sh

@@ -192,22 +192,23 @@ install_extra_host() {
   TARGET="$_saved"
 }
 
-copy_claude_helpers() {
+install_claude_helpers() {
   local dest_root="${HOME}/.claude/skills"
   local name src dest
+  local check_args=()
+  [[ $SKIP_SMOKE -eq 1 ]] && check_args+=(--skip-checks)
   for name in "${CLAUDE_HELPERS[@]}"; do
-    src="${ROOT}/.claude/skills/${name}/SKILL.md"
-    dest="${dest_root}/${name}/SKILL.md"
-    if [[ ! -f "$src" ]]; then
-      warn "Claude helper missing in source: ${src}"
+    src="${ROOT}/.claude/skills/${name}"
+    dest="${dest_root}/${name}"
+    if [[ ! -f "${src}/SKILL.md" ]]; then
+      warn "Claude helper missing in source: ${src}/SKILL.md"
       continue
     fi
     if [[ $DRY_RUN -eq 1 ]]; then
-      log "DRY RUN: would install Claude helper ${name} → ${dest}"
+      log "DRY RUN: would transactional-install Claude helper ${name} → ${dest}"
       continue
     fi
-    mkdir -p "$(dirname "$dest")"
-    cp -f "$src" "$dest"
+    python3 "${ROOT}/scripts/install_transaction.py" "$src" "$dest" hyperlex-helper "${check_args[@]}"
   done
 }
 
@@ -237,8 +238,9 @@ if [[ $DRY_RUN -eq 1 ]]; then
   [[ -d "$TARGET" ]] && log "DRY RUN: would publish a target-keyed backup under ${HERMES_ROOT}/backups/hyperlex/"
   [[ $INSTALL_OPENCLAW -eq 1 ]] && log "DRY RUN: would also install to ${OPENCLAW_TARGET}"
   [[ $INSTALL_CLAUDE -eq 1 ]] && log "DRY RUN: would also install Claude personal skill to ${CLAUDE_SKILL_TARGET}"
-  [[ $INSTALL_CLAUDE -eq 1 ]] && copy_claude_helpers
+  [[ $INSTALL_CLAUDE -eq 1 ]] && install_claude_helpers
   [[ $INSTALL_CLAUDE_PLUGIN -eq 1 ]] && log "DRY RUN: would also install Claude plugin dir to ${CLAUDE_PLUGIN_TARGET}"
+  [[ $INSTALL_CLAUDE_PLUGIN -eq 1 ]] && install_claude_helpers
   exit 0
 fi
 
@@ -250,11 +252,12 @@ fi
 
 if [[ $INSTALL_CLAUDE -eq 1 ]]; then
   install_extra_host "$CLAUDE_SKILL_TARGET" "Claude personal skill"
-  copy_claude_helpers
+  install_claude_helpers
 fi
 
 if [[ $INSTALL_CLAUDE_PLUGIN -eq 1 ]]; then
   install_extra_host "$CLAUDE_PLUGIN_TARGET" "Claude plugin"
+  install_claude_helpers
 fi
 
 echo ""