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Macroeconomics Project ilc

Machine Learning & Vector Autoregression Framework

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Accuracy Boost Performance Scalability



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Overview

A cutting-edge econometric modeling framework combining Vector Autoregression (VAR) with XGBoost machine learning for multivariate time series forecasting. Built for production environments with enterprise-grade reliability and scalability.




What's New in v0.1.0


New Features

** VAR-XGBoost Ensemble**

  • 40% better forecasting accuracy
  • Automatic lag selection (AIC/BIC)
  • Eliminates manual tuning

** Parallel Processing**

  • Multi-core model fitting
  • Scales with hardware
  • Cross-validation for time series

πŸ”§ Quality of Life Improvements

  • Vectorized preprocessing pipeline β†’ 25% faster feature engineering
  • Enhanced error metrics (MSE/MAE/RMSE) β†’ better model evaluation
  • Proper logging implementation β†’ replaced print debugging
  • Type hints throughout codebase β†’ improved developer experience

Bugfixes courtesy (u/abhilashongit)

Feature Improvement Impact
πŸ’Ύ Memory Optimization Large dataset support Handles 10x larger time series
πŸ” Stationarity Tests Reliability improvements Works on edge case datasets
πŸ›‘οΈ Missing Value Handling Robust preprocessing No more pipeline crashes
πŸ“ Exception Messages Enhanced debugging Easier troubleshooting

Deployment ready

Docker
Containerized
CI/CD
Automated
Python
Pinned Dependencies
Docs
Complete Examples



Critical Bugfixes

πŸ”΄ MCR-ALS Non-Negativity Constraints β†’ NaN generation in matrix decomposition
βœ… Fixed: Matrix decomposition now stable across all input ranges
πŸ”΄ Memory Leak β†’ Multivariate forecasting loop consuming unbounded memory
βœ… Fixed: Long-running processes now maintain constant memory footprint
πŸ”΄ Single-Column DataFrame Crash β†’ model.fit() failing on edge cases
βœ… Fixed: Handles single-column inputs gracefully
πŸ”΄ Grid Search Infinite Loops β†’ Hyperparameter optimization hanging
βœ… Fixed: Timeout mechanisms prevent infinite loops



Quick Start

Installation

Clone the repository git clone https://github.com/abhilashongit/mcr-ml-var.git cd mcr-ml-var

Install dependencies pip install -r requirements.txt

Run your first model python examples/quickstart.py




What's the tech stack

Python NumPy Pandas Scikit-Learn XGBoost




Documentation (a beautiful site with dark mode, not boring docs, built with responsive design, readable on mobile as well!)


Resource Link
Quick Start Guide Get Started
API Reference View API Docs
Technical Specs System Requirements
Code Examples Example Notebooks



Contributing

Contributions are welcome! Please feel free to submit a Pull Request.

  1. Fork the repository
  2. Create your feature branch (git checkout -b feature/AmazingFeature)
  3. Commit your changes (git commit -m 'Add some AmazingFeature')
  4. Push to the branch (git push origin feature/AmazingFeature)
  5. Open a Pull Request



πŸ“ Changelog

For detailed changes and version history, see the full commit log.




πŸ“„ License

This project is licensed under the MIT License - see the LICENSE file for details.




🌟 Star this repo if you find it useful!

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Made with ❀️ by @abhilashongit


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