How much is a free trial worth? This project analyses a synthetic dataset of free trials and purchases to calculate conversion metrics, regional performance, and revenue impact across a 1-month free trial product.
The core analytical challenge is distinguishing between velocity metrics and cohort metrics, two fundamentally different ways of measuring conversion, and understanding when each is appropriate.
The analysis covers:
- 30,239 free trials across 6 regions
- 10,010 purchases
- January 2022 to July 2022
- MySQL - data storage, transformation, and analysis
This analysis addresses several key business questions:
- How many free trials and purchases occurred each month?
- What is the difference between velocity and cohort conversion metrics?
- Which regions convert at the highest rate?
- How much is each free trial worth on average?
- Do higher price points convert at different rates?
- How quickly do customers convert after starting a trial?
- How much revenue is being lost from non-converting trials?
- Do certain cohort months convert better than others?
Velocity metrics count free trials and purchases by the month they occurred, regardless of whether they are connected. January purchases actually belong to December trials, making January look terrible when it may not be. The velocity view shows no purchases in January 2022 and no trials in July 2022, not because the business performed badly, but because of the 1-month lag between trials and purchases.
Cohort metrics join each purchase back to its originating free trial via trial_id, then group by the month the trial started. This gives a fairer comparison of how each cohort actually performed.
| Month | Velocity Purchases | Cohort Purchases |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2022 | 0 | 1,269 |
| Feb 2022 | 1,269 | 1,277 |
| Mar 2022 | 1,277 | 1,730 |
| Apr 2022 | 1,730 | 3,150 |
| May 2022 | 3,150 | 1,262 |
| Jun 2022 | 1,262 | 1,322 |
| Jul 2022 | 1,322 | 0 |
The April cohort spike to 3,150 purchases reflects a genuine conversion rate jump of 58.41% against a baseline of around 32-33%, a signal worth investigating.
Conversion Rate by Region Oceania converts at nearly 3x the rate of Africa and South America.
| Region | Trials | Purchases | Conversion Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oceania | 2,268 | 1,019 | 44.93% |
| North America | 8,207 | 3,157 | 38.47% |
| Europe | 6,718 | 2,529 | 37.65% |
| Asia | 6,213 | 2,144 | 34.51% |
| South America | 1,076 | 189 | 17.57% |
| Africa | 5,757 | 972 | 16.88% |
Africa and South America account for 6,833 trials but convert at under 17%, leaving substantial revenue on the table.
Average Value per Free Trial The overall average value per free trial sits between $50 and $67 depending on the month. Broken down by region the spread is significant:
- Oceania peaks at $92.56 per trial in March 2022
- North America consistently delivers $75-81 per trial in early months
- Africa averages just $21-33 per trial across all months
- South America is the weakest at $20-42 per trial
Price Point Analysis The product was offered at three price points. Conversion rates are consistent across all three.
| Price | Trials | Purchases | Avg Value per Trial |
|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 5,393 | 3,150 | $58.41 |
| $200 | 18,479 | 5,447 | $58.95 |
| $250 | 6,367 | 1,413 | $55.48 |
Key insight: price is not the primary driver of non-conversion. Customers convert at similar rates regardless of what they were charged, which shifts the focus of any conversion improvement effort toward product experience and onboarding rather than pricing strategy.
Month over Month Conversion Trend April 2022 was a significant outlier with a 25-point jump in conversion rate, followed by a 36-point collapse in May. This could reflect a promotion, a product change, or a data anomaly worth investigating.
| Month | Conversion Rate | MoM Change |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2022 | 32.78% | - |
| Feb 2022 | 31.50% | -1.28 |
| Mar 2022 | 33.33% | +1.83 |
| Apr 2022 | 58.41% | +25.08 |
| May 2022 | 22.19% | -36.22 |
| Jun 2022 | 21.88% | -0.31 |
Average Days to Purchase All regions convert within approximately 30 days, confirming the 1-month free trial structure is working as expected. Minimal regional variation suggests time-to-purchase is driven by the product structure rather than regional behaviour.
| Region | Avg Days | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|
| Europe | 30.1 | 28 | 31 |
| North America | 30.1 | 28 | 31 |
| Oceania | 30.1 | 28 | 31 |
| Asia | 30.2 | 28 | 31 |
| Africa | 30.2 | 28 | 31 |
| South America | 30.3 | 28 | 31 |
Revenue Lost from Non-Converting Trials Non-conversion is not just a percentage, it is a concrete revenue cost. May and June 2022 show the largest losses, with North America alone losing $318,250 and $345,500 respectively in those months. The April 2022 cohort is the exception, where lower non-converter counts align with the conversion rate spike, particularly in North America (75.92%) and Europe (67.57%).
The data points to three clear priorities. First, Africa and South America are underperforming significantly despite meaningful trial volumes. Understanding what is driving low conversion in these regions is the highest-leverage question this analysis surfaces. Second, the April 2022 conversion spike is too large to ignore and deserves a root cause investigation, as replicating it intentionally could have a material impact on revenue. Third, price is not suppressing conversion, which means any effort to improve conversion rates should focus on product experience, onboarding, or regional go-to-market strategy rather than pricing.