Long shots, outside view, closing-line guard, objective evidence

[botta0oss]

Four more guards against the losses seen in the first simulated portfolio.

What changes

1. No long shots. No buys of shares under LONGSHOT_MIN_PRICE (10¢), on either side. This applies to both the economic assessment (blocking reason longshot) and the strategy's buy levels. Long shots win less often than their price says (favourite–longshot bias).
2. Outside view first. Jev is asked for a base_rate (how often similar events happen) before resolves_yes, and is told to move away from it only with strong news. The base rate is stored with the prediction and shown in the explanation.
3. Closing-line guard (backend/betting/guard.py). It looks at the latest 15 bets older than an hour, measuring how far the price of the side bought has moved since purchase.
   • A category averaging below −2 points over at least 5 bets is excluded from automatic bets. The exclusion is visible in the exclusions list and can be removed there.
   • Overall, at least 8 bets below −2 points pauses automatic bets and sends a Telegram message.
   • The portfolio page shows the reason, and an admin can resume with POST /portfolio/guard/resume. Bets placed before the resume are not counted again.
   • Manual bets are never blocked.
4. Objective evidence strength. Evidence strength = min(Jev's rating, a rating computed from the facts). The facts rating weighs outlet reliability × freshness × Jev relevance, adds weight for confirmations and for primary sources, and maps the total through EVIDENCE_OBJECTIVE_HALF. Both values are stored, and the backtest uses the same rule.

Also updated

• New prediction and settings columns, with migrations.
• API schemas, /status, Excel export, the settings page and the explanation card.
• EN/IT texts and docs (method, strategy, configuration, API, development).
• .env.example.

Tests

• tests/test_evidence.py (6 new tests). Older tests run with the new rules turned off through conftest env vars.
• 214 passed.
• Playwright smoke test on the portfolio pause notice and resume, the explanation card and the settings page, in IT and EN: no JS errors, no missing translations.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

https://claude.ai/code/session_01JLWZrfy12imc6dQRsEtFjj

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Generated by Claude Code