Election analysis from Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research, an independent, non-partisan US election research firm. Each post is a markdown mirror of an article on carmenaresearch.com/blog, with its charts and data tables. The website has the canonical versions, with interactive charts.
| Published | Post | Summary | Canonical |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Thirteen states have passed their entire 2022 early vote | Five days before Election Day, 13 states have more early ballots than they had in the whole 2022 early vote. Ohio and North Carolina are within 1% of theirs. | read on the site |
| 2026-10-28 | Early in-person voting moved toward Democrats in four states | In Florida, Kansas, Iowa and North Carolina, voters at early-voting sites lean further toward Democrats than in 2022. Many Democrats who once voted by mail now vote in person. | read on the site |
| 2026-10-28 | Democrats are front-loading their reliable voters | Democrats are getting their regular voters to vote earlier. Their early numbers look better than in previous elections, but Republicans have a larger share of their dependable voters still to come. | read on the site |
| 2026-10-27 | Kansas early voters went from R+3 in 2022 to D+5 this year | Republicans led at this stage in 2022 and 2024. This year, registered Democrats are ahead by D+5.2, with Johnson County supplying nearly half the early ballots. | read on the site |
The data behind every chart is in election-data and on our data page. Posts, charts and tables are licensed CC BY 4.0: credit “Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research” and link to the article you used. See CITATION.cff.
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