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chin0312 merged 2 commits into from
Oct 7, 2026
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docs: align public product language with current Valtide semantics #39

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99a84d7
docs: align public product language with current semantics
chin0312 Oct 7, 2026
66ff4db
docs: clarify hero reference validation wording
chin0312 Oct 7, 2026
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46 changes: 24 additions & 22 deletions apps/web/src/components/DocsPage.tsx
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18 changes: 9 additions & 9 deletions apps/web/src/components/Hero.tsx
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Expand Up @@ -213,9 +213,9 @@ export function Hero() {
<MarketingHeader />

<div className="valtide-hero__copy">
<p className="valtide-hero__eyebrow">Independent valuation evidence for tokenized collateral</p>
<p className="valtide-hero__eyebrow">Reference validation for tokenized equity collateral</p>
<h1 id="valtide-hero-title">Take control of your protocol's<br /><span className="valtide-hero__title-accent">collateral risk.</span></h1>
<p className="valtide-hero__lede">Valtide evaluates whether tokenized-equity prices are supported by model-based challenger evidence, then returns an Evidence State that protocols can map to their own risk policy.</p>
<p className="valtide-hero__lede">Compare the observed xStock price with Valtide Fair Value, a Valuation Range, and separately sourced X-Perp evidence. Protocols retain control of the Policy Actions they apply.</p>
<div className="valtide-hero__actions">
<a className="valtide-hero__action" href="?view=console">Open validation console <span aria-hidden="true">↗</span></a>
<a className="valtide-hero__secondary" href="#incident">See how it works <span aria-hidden="true">↓</span></a>
Expand All @@ -225,17 +225,17 @@ export function Hero() {
<div className="valtide-hero__motion" aria-label="Animated market divergence">
<canvas ref={canvasRef} aria-hidden="true" />
<div ref={referenceLabelRef} className="valtide-hero__label valtide-hero__label--reference" aria-hidden="true"><i /><span>X-Perp evidence</span></div>
<div ref={valtideLabelRef} className="valtide-hero__label valtide-hero__label--valtide" aria-hidden="true"><i /><span>P1a-C estimate</span></div>
<div ref={tokenLabelRef} className="valtide-hero__label valtide-hero__label--token" aria-hidden="true"><i /><span>xStock target</span></div>
<div ref={valtideLabelRef} className="valtide-hero__label valtide-hero__label--valtide" aria-hidden="true"><i /><span>Valtide Fair Value</span></div>
<div ref={tokenLabelRef} className="valtide-hero__label valtide-hero__label--token" aria-hidden="true"><i /><span>Observed xStock</span></div>
</div>

<div className="valtide-hero__proof" aria-label="Historical model evidence">
<div className="valtide-hero__proof" aria-label="NVDAx historical interval study">
<div className="valtide-hero__proof-intro">
<span className="valtide-hero__proof-heading">Historical model evidence <MetricInfo id="historical-model-evidence-note" label="About these historical model metrics">Historical evaluation from June–September 2026. Valtide tested 11,828 observations using a 90% prediction-range target. The benchmark is the contemporaneous trusted market price used for evaluation. The ranges captured that benchmark 94.3% of the time and were 19% narrower than a conventional Gaussian range built from the same price estimates. Coverage above target is not automatically better; it must be considered together with range width. Historical results are not production guarantees or comparisons with oracle providers.</MetricInfo></span>
<span className="valtide-hero__proof-heading">NVDAx historical interval study <MetricInfo id="historical-model-evidence-note" label="About this exposed NVDAx interval study">Exposed historical/development interval study for NVDAx using Valtide Model P1a-C v0.2.0, June–September 2026. Across 11,828 observations, intervals targeted 90% and showed 94.3% empirical coverage; mean interval width was 19% narrower than a conventional Gaussian range using the same point estimates. This evaluates interval construction—not price accuracy versus raw xStock, three-asset performance, Evidence State accuracy, or production performance. The exposed period is not an untouched test set.</MetricInfo></span>
</div>
<div><strong>{MODEL_EVIDENCE_SUMMARY.observations.toLocaleString("en-US")}</strong><span>Historical evaluation observations</span></div>
<div><strong>{(MODEL_EVIDENCE_SUMMARY.coverage * 100).toFixed(1)}%</strong><span>Empirical interval coverage</span><small>{(MODEL_EVIDENCE_SUMMARY.coverageTarget * 100).toFixed(0)}% target</small></div>
<div><strong>{(MODEL_EVIDENCE_SUMMARY.intervalWidthReduction * 100).toFixed(0)}% narrower</strong><span>Mean interval width vs. Gaussian baseline</span></div>
<div><strong>{MODEL_EVIDENCE_SUMMARY.observations.toLocaleString("en-US")}</strong><span>NVDAx · P1a-C v0.2.0 observations</span></div>
<div><strong>{(MODEL_EVIDENCE_SUMMARY.coverage * 100).toFixed(1)}%</strong><span>Empirical interval coverage</span><small>{(MODEL_EVIDENCE_SUMMARY.coverageTarget * 100).toFixed(0)}% target · NVDAx</small></div>
<div><strong>{(MODEL_EVIDENCE_SUMMARY.intervalWidthReduction * 100).toFixed(0)}% narrower</strong><span>Mean interval width · same point estimates</span></div>
</div>
</section>
);
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53 changes: 23 additions & 30 deletions apps/web/src/components/LandingPage.tsx
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Expand Up @@ -3,16 +3,9 @@ import type { ValuationResult } from "../api/types";
import weekendDivergence from "../fixtures/weekend_divergence.json";
import { documentationProfileList } from "./documentationProfiles";
import { Hero } from "./Hero";
import { reasonLabel } from "../lib/format";

const SCENARIO = weekendDivergence as unknown as ValuationResult[];
const REASON_LABELS: Record<string, string> = {
CALIBRATION_GLOBAL_FALLBACK: "Global fallback calibration",
TOKEN_AND_CHALLENGER_AGREE: "Token and challenger agree",
P1A_XSTOCK_SUPPORT_BAND: "P1a/xStock support band",
P1A_XSTOCK_WATCH_BAND: "P1a/xStock watch band",
P1A_XSTOCK_REVIEW_BAND: "P1a/xStock review band",
XPERP_CORROBORATES_P1A: "X-Perp corroborates P1a",
};

function money(value: number | null) {
return value === null ? "Unavailable" : `$${value.toFixed(2)}`;
Expand All @@ -29,9 +22,9 @@ function scaleTop(value: number | null) {
}

const storySteps = [
{ number: "01", label: "Observe", title: "An xStock price separates from its model-based challenger.", body: "Valtide keeps the observed xStock, P1a-C estimate, exact-time X-Perp evidence, trusted anchor, market state, and source timestamps visibly separate." },
{ number: "02", label: "Estimate", title: "Uncertainty remains part of the answer.", body: "P1a-C produces a fair-value estimate with calibrated interval bounds after assimilating the same xStock observation—not a fully independent vote or a single price presented as truth." },
{ number: "03", label: "Validate", title: "Tri-source evidence becomes an explainable state.", body: "Asset-specific support, watch, and review bands combine with exact-time X-Perp availability or directional corroboration to return SUPPORTED, INCONCLUSIVE, or CHALLENGED." },
{ number: "01", label: "Observe", title: "Start with the observed xStock price.", body: "Keep its timestamp beside the Underlying Anchor, separately sourced X-Perp evidence, and market status. Each has a distinct role in the evidence record." },
{ number: "02", label: "Estimate", title: "See a Fair Value and Valuation Range.", body: "The Valtide Model uses the observed xStock price as an input. Its estimate and uncertainty range are a model comparison—not an independent market vote or a guaranteed true price." },
{ number: "03", label: "Validate", title: "Review disagreement and evidence quality.", body: "Model Distance, separate X-Perp evidence, and quality checks inform an explainable Evidence State. Missing, stale, or ambiguous evidence can leave the result INCONCLUSIVE." },
{ number: "04", label: "Respond", title: "The protocol keeps control of policy.", body: "A curator-owned mapping turns evidence into a Policy Action. The consuming application decides how that action is enforced." },
] as const;

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -95,8 +88,8 @@ export function LandingPage() {
<div className="section-index"><span>01</span><span>DETERMINISTIC DEMO</span></div>
<div className="story-heading">
<p className="marketing-kicker">One incident, fully traced</p>
<h2>Watch a synthetic collateral reference diverge from market evidence.</h2>
<p>This six-step synthetic incident shows what happens as the observed NVDAx price separates from its model-based challenger while exact-time X-Perp provides a second market view. It is demonstration data—not live or historical performance.</p>
<h2>See a synthetic xStock price beside Valtide Fair Value.</h2>
<p>This six-step synthetic incident for NVDAx shows Observed xStock, a Valtide Model estimate and range, and separate X-Perp evidence. It is demonstration data—not live evidence or historical performance.</p>
</div>

<div className="incident-frame" aria-label="Canonical Valtide demo scenario">
Expand All @@ -107,26 +100,26 @@ export function LandingPage() {
</div>
<div className="incident-grid">
<div className="incident-question">
<span className="marketing-kicker">Validation target</span>
<span className="marketing-kicker">Observed xStock</span>
<strong>{money(demo.token_price)}</strong>
<p>Observed NVDAx market price</p>
<p>Price being reviewed · NVDAx</p>
</div>
<div className="incident-chart" aria-hidden="true">
<div className="incident-band" style={{ top: `${intervalTop}%`, height: `${Math.max(4, intervalBottom - intervalTop)}%` }}><span>Valtide interval</span></div>
<div className="incident-band" style={{ top: `${intervalTop}%`, height: `${Math.max(4, intervalBottom - intervalTop)}%` }}><span>90% Valuation Range</span></div>
<div className="incident-marker incident-marker--reference" style={{ top: `${scaleTop(demo.xperp_index_price)}%` }}><i />X-Perp {money(demo.xperp_index_price)}</div>
<div className="incident-marker incident-marker--fair" style={{ top: `${scaleTop(demo.valtide_fair_value)}%` }}><i />P1a-C {money(demo.valtide_fair_value)}</div>
<div className="incident-marker incident-marker--token" style={{ top: `${scaleTop(demo.token_price)}%` }}><i />xStock {money(demo.token_price)}</div>
<div className="incident-marker incident-marker--fair" style={{ top: `${scaleTop(demo.valtide_fair_value)}%` }}><i />Valtide Fair Value {money(demo.valtide_fair_value)}</div>
<div className="incident-marker incident-marker--token" style={{ top: `${scaleTop(demo.token_price)}%` }}><i />Observed xStock {money(demo.token_price)}</div>
</div>
<div className={`incident-result is-${demo.evidence_state.toLowerCase()}`}>
<span className="marketing-kicker">Evidence State</span>
<strong>{demo.evidence_state}</strong>
<p>{demo.reason_codes.map((reason) => <span key={reason}>{REASON_LABELS[reason] ?? reason}</span>)}</p>
<p>{demo.reason_codes.map((reason) => <span key={reason}>{reasonLabel(reason)}</span>)}</p>
</div>
</div>
<div className="incident-metrics">
<div><span>P1a-C fair value</span><strong>{money(demo.valtide_fair_value)}</strong></div>
<div><span>Expected range · 90% coverage target</span><strong>{money(demo.fair_value_lower)}–{money(demo.fair_value_upper)}</strong></div>
<div><span>xStock vs. P1a-C</span><strong>{signedPct(demo.xstock_vs_p1ac_deviation_pct)}</strong></div>
<div><span>Valtide Fair Value</span><strong>{money(demo.valtide_fair_value)}</strong></div>
<div><span>90% Valuation Range</span><strong>{money(demo.fair_value_lower)}–{money(demo.fair_value_upper)}</strong></div>
<div><span>Observed xStock vs. model</span><strong>{signedPct(demo.xstock_vs_p1ac_deviation_pct)}</strong></div>
</div>
<div className="incident-timeline" aria-label="Choose a demo observation" onFocusCapture={() => pauseDemo("focus")}>
{SCENARIO.map((observation, index) => <button type="button" key={observation.timestamp} onClick={() => { setDemoFrame(index); pauseDemo("manual"); }} aria-pressed={index === demoFrame} className={`is-${observation.evidence_state.toLowerCase()} ${index === demoFrame ? "is-active" : ""}`}>
Expand All @@ -149,8 +142,8 @@ export function LandingPage() {
<section id="method" className="story-section story-section--reasoning">
<div className="section-index"><span>02</span><span>THE REASONING CHAIN</span></div>
<div className="story-heading story-heading--split">
<h2>Test the price already in use with model-based challenger evidence.</h2>
<p>Valtide preserves the disagreement rather than averaging every source into one opaque number. P1a assimilates the same xStock observation, so xStock-versus-P1a is model-based challenger evidence—not two fully independent observations. Exact-time X-Perp remains a separate second-market signal.</p>
<h2>Keep the price, estimate, and evidence distinct.</h2>
<p>Valtide preserves disagreement rather than averaging every source into one opaque number. The Valtide Model uses Observed xStock as an input, so their difference is not two independent observations. X-Perp is separately sourced; the Underlying Anchor provides model context and is not a same-time Evidence State vote.</p>
</div>
<div className="reasoning-grid" aria-label="Valtide reasoning chain">
{storySteps.map((step) => <article key={step.number}><div><span>{step.number}</span><span>{step.label}</span></div><h3>{step.title}</h3><p>{step.body}</p></article>)}
Expand All @@ -162,15 +155,15 @@ export function LandingPage() {
<div className="interval-copy">
<p className="marketing-kicker">A range, not false precision</p>
<h2>Calibrated ranges make uncertainty explicit.</h2>
<p>Valtide returns a range, not a supposedly exact “true” price. The wider the uncertainty, the less confidently a protocol should rely on the estimate.</p>
<p>Valtide returns an estimate with a Valuation Range, not a supposedly exact “true” price. The range communicates uncertainty; it does not guarantee where the market will trade.</p>
<a className="text-link" href="/methodology">Read the methodology <span aria-hidden="true">→</span></a>
</div>
<div className="range-instrument" aria-label="Illustrative interval based on the deterministic demo scenario">
<div className="range-scale"><span>$178.00</span><span>$179.00</span><span>$180.00</span></div>
<div className="range-track">
<div className="range-band"><span>Expected range · 90% coverage target</span></div>
<i className="range-point range-point--token"><span>Token<br />$178.20</span></i>
<i className="range-point range-point--fair"><span>P1a-C<br />$179.13</span></i>
<div className="range-band"><span>90% Valuation Range</span></div>
<i className="range-point range-point--token"><span>Observed xStock<br />$178.20</span></i>
<i className="range-point range-point--fair"><span>Valtide Fair Value<br />$179.13</span></i>
<i className="range-point range-point--reference"><span>X-Perp<br />$180.00</span></i>
</div>
<p>Canonical demo observation · 2026-09-19 14:25 UTC · values rounded for display</p>
Expand All @@ -189,7 +182,7 @@ export function LandingPage() {
<article><span>CURATOR / PROTOCOL</span><h3>Policy mapping</h3><div><b>ALLOW</b><b>MONITOR</b><b>REQUIRE_REVIEW</b><b>RESTRICT_NEW_RISK</b></div></article>
<article><span>CONSUMER</span><h3>Enforcement</h3><p>The consuming application defines what the returned action does.</p></article>
</div>
<p className="ownership-note">The browser is read-only: it observes and explains. It does not calculate Evidence State, edit policy, hold the publisher signer, sign, or submit transactions.</p>
<p className="ownership-note">The browser is read-only: it observes and explains; it does not calculate Evidence State, edit policy, hold the publisher signer, sign, or submit transactions. A separate backend scheduler publishes authorized attestations for configured assets.</p>
</section>

<section className="story-section story-section--trail">
Expand All @@ -206,7 +199,7 @@ export function LandingPage() {
<div className="prototype-scope">
<div>
<p className="marketing-kicker">Current prototype scope</p>
<dl><div><dt>Operational validation</dt><dd>NVDAx · SPYx · AAPLx</dd></div><div><dt>Validation target</dt><dd>Observed xStock price, with P1a-C and exact-time X-Perp evidence</dd></div><div><dt>Onchain binding</dt><dd>NVDAx · SPYx · AAPLx · X Layer testnet · Chain ID 1952</dd></div><div><dt>Research-only asset</dt><dd>QQQx · not exposed through the public HTTP API</dd></div><div><dt>Status</dt><dd>Research / hackathon prototype</dd></div></dl>
<dl><div><dt>Operational validation</dt><dd>NVDAx · SPYx · AAPLx</dd></div><div><dt>Evidence comparison</dt><dd>Observed xStock · Valtide Fair Value · X-Perp</dd></div><div><dt>Onchain binding</dt><dd>NVDAx · SPYx · AAPLx · X Layer testnet · Chain ID 1952</dd></div><div><dt>Research-only asset</dt><dd>QQQx · not exposed through the public HTTP API</dd></div><div><dt>Status</dt><dd>Research / hackathon prototype</dd></div></dl>
</div>
<div>
<p className="marketing-kicker">Deliberate boundaries</p>
Expand Down
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