tools(sentry): org-wide volume report + measure on submitted, not accepted - #172
Merged
Conversation
…re on The AGE-105 gate is a measured number, so it needs a repeatable query. It also needed a correction: `accepted` is the wrong headline. The org is over its error quota, so Sentry rejects nearly everything and `accepted` reads ~0 for every project - a blown org and a fixed one look identical on that column. The demand metric is `submitted` = accepted + rate_limited. scripts/sentry-volume-report.mjs takes named --window ranges and prints per-project submitted / accepted / rate_limited / client_discard plus the per-hour and projected per-month rate, so before/after comparisons run the exact same query instead of being re-derived by hand each time. Records the pre-rollout baseline in docs/analytics.md: opencode-mobile at 4.71/h (3,441/mo), 87% of the org's post-box-bot demand, from two windows that agree to within 0.2%. Co-Authored-By: Paperclip <noreply@paperclip.ing>
The gate's unit tests prove it behaves as specified. Nothing proved the spec was aimed at the right targets. Replaying the actual 90d census of the opencode-mobile Sentry project (648 events, 11 issues) through the gate's own precedence shows 96.9% hard-dropped as transport noise and every observed crash class (OOM, ANR, IllegalStateException) still allowlisted -> ~87 events/month against a 1,500/month target. Also records two findings from measuring the org directly: * The error quota resets on the 4th. The 5,000-event month opened 2026-08-04 and was spent by 08-08; the org has accepted zero errors since. 2026-09-04 is the date the gate has to hold by, and it is why 'submitted' is the metric. * Server-side levers are unavailable on this plan. A per-key rate limit PUT returns HTTP 200 and silently discards the value (verified for three window sizes), custom inbound filters are absent, spike protection 403s. The client gate is the only control that exists, so its coverage is the whole margin. Refs AGE-105 Co-Authored-By: Paperclip <noreply@paperclip.ing>
dzianisv
force-pushed
the
age-105-sentry-volume-report
branch
from
August 14, 2026 14:59
dc97fdc to
1a32ba3
Compare
added 2 commits
August 14, 2026 08:05
…nfused with quota backoff Raw client_discard cannot show whether the noise gate works. Today 100% of opencode-mobile's client_discard is ratelimit_backoff -- the SDK backing off a 429 because the ORG is over quota -- which rises when things get WORSE. Gate drops land in a different reason: @sentry/core records before_send when beforeSend returns null. - stats_v2 now groups by reason as well as project/outcome - the before_send vs ratelimit_backoff split always prints; --by-reason adds the full per-project reason table - before_send > 0 is install-share-independent, so it proves the gate is live on real devices days before a monthly rate can bend - documents that release-level segmentation is impossible while over quota: rate_limited events are never stored, so release tags stop (last value 0.4.12, 2026-08-08). Version share comes from Play, not Sentry.
The AGE-105 quota fix is entirely client-side (every server-side lever on this plan is dead), so the gate being *in the shipped binary* is the whole safety margin. That is also the one thing Sentry cannot tell us: while the org is over quota nothing is stored, release tags stop dead at 0.4.12, and a release:0.4.14 query returns empty in a way that reads like success. Grep the Hermes bundle inside the AAB instead, before the Play upload step: the gate's reason codes, the transport drop-list regex, the noise.dropped_since_last tag only applyNoiseGate() writes, and a baked-in DSN (a release built without EXPO_PUBLIC_SENTRY_DSN makes Sentry a silent no-op). Verified to discriminate on real artifacts - the v0.4.14 build now on Play production passes, pre-gate v0.4.13 fails all six markers. Also records the rejected alternative: persisting gate state across cold starts pays off only under ~94 active devices (2,633 session envelopes/7d vs a 6h cooldown), and the install base is above that.
This was referenced Aug 14, 2026
This file contains hidden or bidirectional Unicode text that may be interpreted or compiled differently than what appears below. To review, open the file in an editor that reveals hidden Unicode characters.
Learn more about bidirectional Unicode characters
Sign up for free
to join this conversation on GitHub.
Already have an account?
Sign in to comment
1 participant
Add this suggestion to a batch that can be applied as a single commit.This suggestion is invalid because no changes were made to the code.Suggestions cannot be applied while the pull request is closed.Suggestions cannot be applied while viewing a subset of changes.Only one suggestion per line can be applied in a batch.Add this suggestion to a batch that can be applied as a single commit.Applying suggestions on deleted lines is not supported.You must change the existing code in this line in order to create a valid suggestion.Outdated suggestions cannot be applied.This suggestion has been applied or marked resolved.Suggestions cannot be applied from pending reviews.Suggestions cannot be applied on multi-line comments.Suggestions cannot be applied while the pull request is queued to merge.Suggestion cannot be applied right now. Please check back later.
Follow-up tooling for [AGE-105]. The "done" condition there is a measured Sentry rate, and re-deriving it by hand each heartbeat is how before/after comparisons quietly stop being comparisons.
The correction that matters
acceptedis the wrong headline metric. The org is over its error quota, so Sentry rejects nearly everything:Every project reads
accepted: 0. On that column a blown org and a perfectly fixed one are indistinguishable.submitted=accepted + rate_limitedis the demand the clients actually put on the wire, which is what the 3,500/month gate is about.What this adds
scripts/sentry-volume-report.mjs— read-only, takes named--window name=START..ENDranges (nowallowed), prints per-project submitted/accepted/rate_limited/client_discard plus per-hour and projected per-month rates.--jsonfor machine use. No deps.docs/analytics.md— how to run it, whysubmittedand notaccepted, and the recorded pre-rollout baseline.Baseline recorded for the v0.4.14 comparison
opencode-mobileat 4.71/h → 3,441/month, 87% of the org's post-box-bot demand. Two independent windows (7h post-box-bot-fix, and the 7d trailing average) agree to within 0.2%, which is the useful part — it means the after-number will be comparable rather than a diurnal artifact.Verified by running it against the live org for all three windows in the table above.