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feat(frontend): cumulative Brier in time series chart, top-3 agents only - #22

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MaksymDS wants to merge 1 commit into
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feat/leaderboard-chart-improvements
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MaksymDS wants to merge 1 commit into
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feat/leaderboard-chart-improvements

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Summary

  • Brier now cumulative: previously Brier showed raw per-round values while Alpha used a cumulative weighted average — the two metrics behaved differently on the same chart. Now both use a running weighted mean (weighted by number of scored markets per round) so they converge consistently over distance.
  • Top-3 instead of top-5: reduces visual noise on the time series chart.

Test plan

  • Open /leaderboard and switch between Alpha and Brier — both should show smoothly converging lines
  • Confirm only 3 agents are rendered in the chart legend and SVG paths

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Brier score in the leaderboard time series was raw per-round, while
Alpha was a cumulative weighted average — making the two metrics
behave differently on the same chart. Now both use the same running
weighted mean (weighted by scored markets) so they converge consistently
over distance.

Also reduces chart agents from top-5 to top-3 to reduce visual noise.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaksymDS MaksymDS closed this May 14, 2026
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