Skip to content

ginappedrosa/ESG_marketvolatility

Repository files navigation

ESG & Stock market volatility prediction 📊🌱🤖

Authors: Gina Pedrosa, Erika Pablos, Lielia Rodas


📌 Project overview

This project integrates financial stock market data with ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) ratings to build a set of machine learning models capable of predicting daily stock returns and volatility.

The workflow includes:

  • Data exploration & preprocessing (project_explore.ipynb):
    Cleaning, feature engineering (returns, rolling volatility), ESG data integration, and exploratory data analysis (EDA).
  • Modeling:
    Comparison of different ML approaches (Linear Regression, XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost).
    Best models are saved as .pkl for deployment.
  • Deployment (app.ipynb):
    A Streamlit web application where users can input a ticker and visualize predictions, ESG scores, and volatility forecasts.

🎯 Objectives

  • Predict stock behavior: Use ESG scores and historical stock data to forecast daily returns and volatility.
  • Support decision-making: Provide insights for investors, companies, and stakeholders.
  • Understand ESG impact: Analyze the role of ESG performance on stock stability and perception.
  • Accessible tool: Through a Streamlit app, make results interpretable and interactive.

📊 Dataset description

The file dataset_final.csv contains the following columns:

Column Description
Date Trading date of the stock.
Ticker Stock symbol of the company.
Adj Close Adjusted closing price (accounts for splits/dividends).
Close Closing price of the stock.
High Highest price during the trading day.
Low Lowest price during the trading day.
Open Opening price of the stock.
Volume Number of shares traded.
ESG Score Overall Environmental, Social, and Governance score.
Governance Score Governance performance score.
Environment Score Environmental performance score.
Social Score Social responsibility performance score.
ESG Score Date Date when the ESG score was assigned or updated.
ESG Status Current ESG rating status.
CEO Full Name Full name of the company's CEO.
CEO Gender Gender of the CEO.
CEO Status Used to identify whether obtaining CEO info was successful.
Year Year of the trading data.
Daily_Return Daily % change in adjusted closing price. (Target for prediction)
Daily_Volatility Rolling std of daily returns, measuring stock variability. (Target)

📊 Ticker and Company name reference

Below is the updated list of tickers and their corresponding company names, directly extracted from the actual dataset used in the dashboard (dataset_final.csv).

Ticker Company Name
A Mr. Michael R. McMullen
AAL Mr. Robert D. Isom Jr.
AAPL Mr. Timothy D. Cook
ABBV Mr. Richard A. Gonzalez
ABT Mr. Robert B. Ford
ACGL Mr. Marc Grandisson
ACN Ms. Julie T. Spellman Sweet
ADBE Mr. Shantanu Narayen
ADI Mr. Vincent T. Roche
ADM Mr. Juan Ricardo Luciano
ADP Ms. Maria Black
ADSK Dr. Andrew Anagnost
AEE Mr. Martin J. Lyons Jr.
AEP Ms. Julia A. Sloat
AES Mr. Andres Ricardo Gluski Weilert
AFL Mr. Daniel Paul Amos
AIG Mr. Peter Salvatore Zaffino
AIZ Mr. Keith Warner Demmings
AJG Mr. J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
AKAM Dr. F. Thomson Leighton
ALB Mr. Jerry Kent Masters Jr.
ALL Mr. Thomas Joseph Wilson II
ALLE Mr. John H. Stone
AMAT Mr. Gary E. Dickerson
AME Mr. David A. Zapico
AMGN Mr. Robert A. Bradway
AMP Mr. James M. Cracchiolo
AMT Mr. Thomas A. Bartlett CPA
AMZN Mr. Andrew R. Jassy
ANET Ms. Jayshree V. Ullal
ANSS Dr. Ajei S. Gopal Ph.D.
AOS Mr. Kevin J. Wheeler
APD Mr. Seifollah Ghasemi
APH Mr. Richard Adam Norwitt
APTV Mr. Kevin P. Clark
ARE Mr. Peter M. Moglia
ATO Mr. John Kevin Akers
AVB Mr. Benjamin W. Schall
AVY Mr. Deon M. Stander
AWK Ms. M. Susan Hardwick
AXP Mr. Stephen Joseph Squeri
AZO Mr. William C. Rhodes III
BAC Mr. Brian Thomas Moynihan
BALL Mr. Daniel William Fisher
BBWI Ms. Gina R. Boswell
GOOGL Mr. Sundar Pichai
LNT Mr. John O. Larsen
MMM Mr. Michael F. Roman
MO Mr. William F. Gifford Jr.
T Mr. John T. Stankey
... (add all tickers from dataset_final.csv as needed) ...

⚙️ How to run the dashboard

  1. Install dependencies:
pip install -r requirements.txt
  1. Launch the dashboard:
streamlit run src/app.py

🧠 Project pipeline overview

This dashboard uses a machine learning pipeline based on XGBoost to predict market volatility, integrating ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) scores and financial data. The pipeline includes:

  • StandardScaler for feature normalization
  • SelectFromModel for feature selection
  • XGBRegressor for volatility prediction
  • All models and selectors are loaded from the models/ folder

📋 Dashboard tabs & Features

  • Company overview: Shows ESG and volatility metrics for the selected ticker, with explanations for interpretation.
  • ESG vs volatility: Comparative analysis between ESG scores and volatility, with user guidance.
  • Prediction: Predicts volatility for any ticker, including new ones, using the trained model pipeline.
  • Portfolio simulation: Simulate a portfolio and analyze ESG/volatility impact.
  • Model performance: Displays model metrics (R², RMSE) and pipeline details.

ℹ️ Interpreting ESG & volatility

  • ESG Score: Higher values indicate better environmental, social, and governance practices. Companies with high ESG scores are generally considered more sustainable and responsible.
  • Volatility: Measures the risk or price fluctuation of a stock. Lower volatility is typically preferred for stable investments, while higher volatility may indicate greater risk and potential reward.

🗂️ Data source

All tickers and company names are extracted from the processed dataset (data/processed/dataset_final.csv).


Last updated: October 1, 2025

About

No description, website, or topics provided.

Resources

Stars

Watchers

Forks

Releases

No releases published

Packages

 
 
 

Contributors