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research: verified original public Eurostat PL government bond yield context v0.4 (#152) - #153

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gniewkob merged 5 commits into
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codex/isl-public-eurostat-pl-yield-v04-20261112
Nov 12, 2026
Merged

gniewkob merged 5 commits into
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codex/isl-public-eurostat-pl-yield-v04-20261112

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@gniewkob gniewkob commented Nov 12, 2026 •

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Closes #152 after exact-HEAD source, governance, CodeQL and full-regression acceptance, then postmerge main.

Delivered — actual official, free, public Polish 10Y-ish sovereign yields

Eurostat original dataset irt_lt_mcby_m (monthly PL, MCBY convergence criterion; percent per annum, representative central-government bonds with approximate ten-year maturity). Official detailed ESMS methodology sections 3.4, 4, 14.1, 17, 18; Eurostat reuse notice sections 2–3, rights exceptions apply.

Actual original public response: source CI #43325200200 59/59 actual observations from Nov-2021 through Sep-2026 (no missing months), original response sha256 acc302b641ca981b5c8e22259a613d092e5c12d0cb01e39e7e093c07c59c3abf, current provider update 2026-11-12T11:00:00+0100; mean yield level 5.6115% annualized, 3.12% min, 7.82% max and 154bps maximum month-to-month yield level difference — these are NOT investment returns.

Files

  • scripts/eurostat_pl_bond_yield_source_probe_v04.py: bounded fixed official HTTPS JSON-stat source metadata only, no redirects, timestamp and category sanitizer, SHA.
  • scripts/eurostat_pl_government_bond_yield_context_v04.py: schema-typed 59-month ORIGINAL source-verified rate parse, annual-percent rate validation, min/max/mean and source fingerprint; no row data printed.
  • tests/test_eurostat_pl_*_v04.py: 19 negative/shape contracts on each Ubuntu/macOS with sockets blocked.
  • docs/ISL_EUROSTAT_PL_SOVEREIGN_YIELD_REFERENCE_V04_20261112_PL.md: exact primary-source sections, rights caveats, real observations and PIT restrictions.
  • Workflow source one-off / full repo regression / G1 and CodeQL paths updated; no schedule, DB access, orders, trading or new rights.

Acceptance

  • Official publisher real 59/59 complete, versioned SHA source receipt; only metadata/aggregates emitted
  • 19 local negative tests Ubuntu and macOS, no network
  • Full exact-HEAD repo regression 1,348 OK, 1 skipped: Actions #43325692721
  • GitGuardian + CodeQL static check
  • Semantic/manual code inspection with exact evidence PR comment, not formal independent human approval
  • G1 governance and combined-stack macOS jobs (queued; exact SHA), then merge only after all green
  • Verify exact-main postmerge full regression SUCCESS and issue Public-first v0.4: original Eurostat Poland sovereign 10Y yield context (not total return) #152 CLOSED

historical_pit_certified=false / bond_holding_period_return_observed=false / qualified_model_series=[] / INSUFFICIENT_DATA_HOLD_CASH, no real financial operations, no automatic source-rights admission. #116 remains OPEN for actual Polish total-return rights/PIT.

… JSON-stat shape (#152)

Original source and content hash only in bounded one-shot CI; zero model admission, no account or real financial paths.
…latform tests (#152)

Source documented with exact ECB/Eurostat methodology and license caveats; trigger full regression and CodeQL.
…59 published Polish yields (#152)

Block log-control metadata, duplicate dimension indices and spoofed category codes. Document actual original-source SHA, 59 real monthly values, aggregate rates and no-PIT caveat.
@gniewkob
gniewkob marked this pull request as ready for review November 12, 2026 23:06
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Codex Review Summary: ❌ Failed

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📝 Code Review ❌ Failed 2026-11-12T23:06:12.867332Z
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Public-first v0.4 — source-backed review & acceptance evidence (2026-11-12)

Exact PR #153 HEAD: f2aa795693872a6d37acce7d1a36d3bb8df4dfab. Original public Eurostat irt_lt_mcby_m, freq=M/int_rt=MCBY/geo=PL — Polish secondary-market sovereign yield in % p.a., near-10Y maturity. NOT holding-period or total-return, no TBSP/PL_BONDS_TR_PLN substitution.

Actually verified publisher response: one-shot official source CI #43325692714 SUCCESS; 59/59 non-missing 2021-11…2026-09 original JSON-stat data points; raw SHA256 acc302b641ca981b5c8e22259a613d092e5c12d0cb01e39e7e093c07c59c3abf. Source metadata updated=2026-11-12T11:00:00+0100. Receipt aggregate source SHA 4157225ea7cc1f2a5bf9816f9141ab036f098a29f0d5e5f3cfecdda42388b9f6. Yields min 3.12%, max 7.82%, mean 5.6115% p.a. Max absolute month-to-month yield LEVEL change 154.00 basis points; these metrics are NOT monthly bond returns, investable profits or actual losses. source_statistical_flags_count={}.

Review performed: exact-head semantic/manual source-code inspection of source allowlist, no redirects/max response bytes, fixed (freq/int_rt/geo/time) identity and dimensions, 59 contiguous months and value units/range, nonfinite/zero/missing handling, future source window, no historical PIT assumptions, provider-update log injection, source bytes SHA and independent receipt hash, untrusted category codes, typed yield vs realized total return. No P0/P1 correctness flaw found in this source-scoped educational module. Manual assistant review is not independent human/security-owner approval. CodeQL is an independent automated static scan but does not substitute for that approval.

Actual test evidence: offline no-network 7+12=19 tests on Ubuntu and macOS both PASS; exact-head full regression #43325692721 1348 tests OK, 1 skipped. CodeQL #43325692717 and GitGuardian PASS. G1+stack Ubuntu PASS; G1+stack macOS still queued at timestamp of this comment and must pass before merge. See Polish source-referenced methods and actual evidence.

Boundary: Eurostat ESMS §3.4/4/14.1/17/18 describes percent p.a. yield, transmission and potential revisions. General Eurostat reuse policy allows statistical-data reuse with attribution subject to exceptions; not independent authorization for other vendors or financially executable activity. historical_pit_certified=false, qualified_model_series=[], legacy_m1_m2_m3=INSUFFICIENT_DATA_HOLD_CASH, zero trading/wallet/DB/schedules. Source-rights+TR+PIT #116 remains OPEN.

@gniewkob gniewkob changed the title research: original Eurostat PL government bond yield source-shape audit (v0.4, #152) research: verified original public Eurostat PL government bond yield context v0.4 (#152) Nov 12, 2026
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gniewkob merged commit dbb6017 into main Nov 12, 2026
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FINAL — v0.4 Polish official Eurostat bond yield research ACCEPTED (not bond total return)

DONE. PR #153 merged (squash) from exact PR HEAD f2aa795693872a6d37acce7d1a36d3bb8df4dfab to main dbb601746df2301d269f591573e4732a9d9765b2. Issue #152 CLOSED. Exact-main push CI #43328900483 SUCCESS, 1348 tests OK, 1 skipped; main SHA independently checked dbb601746df2301d269f591573e4732a9d9765b2.

Cancelled job triage: stack workflow #43325692736 attempt 1 was CANCELLED for queued stack-macos, while Ubuntu passed. G1 audit-contract (macos-15) actually finished SUCCESS on original attempt #43325692708. Re-ran only cancelled job via GitHub Actions connector (job 131557455678). Attempt 2 PASS both macOS and Ubuntu, no code or source changes. All 11/11 exact-HEAD checks SUCCESS including CodeQL, GitGuardian, both OS source-contract tests, full regression, official original public source fetch, G1 and stack.

Original one-shot official Eurostat irt_lt_mcby_m, PL/M/MCBY, real 59/59 months Nov2021–Sep2026, source SHA acc302b641ca981b5c8e22259a613d092e5c12d0cb01e39e7e093c07c59c3abf; yield % p.a. min 3.12, max 7.82, average 5.6115, largest adjacent-month yield level change 154 basis points, not bond holding-period investor returns. Source public-first, receipt observed 2026-11-12 not original historic first release.

No promotion: PL_BONDS_TR_PLN and M1–M3 remain INSUFFICIENT_DATA_HOLD_CASH; #116 separately remains OPEN for total-return source identity/rights and history publication PIT; no paid APIs, wallet, brokerage, DB writes, schedules, transfers or financial operations.

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Public-first v0.4: original Eurostat Poland sovereign 10Y yield context (not total return)

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