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research: integrated public-first NBP+Eurostat 5-series evidence and GPW/BondSpot source gate (#154) - #155

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gniewkob merged 3 commits into
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codex/isl-public-multisource-evidence-v05-20261113
Nov 12, 2026
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gniewkob merged 3 commits into
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codex/isl-public-multisource-evidence-v05-20261113

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Closes #154 after full acceptance.

Substantial public-first delivery, not document-by-document research: one 5-series source evidence bundle across 3 original official data families / 4 fixed HTTPS reads: NBP table A USD/EUR + NBP gold in Sep 2026; Eurostat HICP 13 months Sep2025–Sep2026; Eurostat PL sovereign ~10Y yield 59 months Nov2021–Sep2026. Original-source SHA256, exact time window and source semantics validated and combined into one source receipt.

Meaningful derived educational diagnostic: nominal 10Y annual yield level (September 2026) minus retrospective trailing 12-month HICP percent change, correctly labeled historical level minus backward-looking inflation, neither actual real bond total return nor executable strategy.

Exchange rights track: source registry of BondSpot TBSP.Index daily historical levels, GPW XLS archive, privately verified Vanguard NAV #97, open licensed Swinkels non-PL historical bonds #123. Links to BondSpot market data policy incl index user declaration/license. No automated exchange bulk fetch or reuse without authorization; no licence loophole via mirrors.

Safety: explicit opt-in; read-only public APIs; no DB/schedules/financial transactions, no qualified total return or historical PIT; #116 remains blocked.

Acceptance:

Source & methods: Polish package documentation.

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Codex Review Summary: ❌ Failed

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📝 Code Review ❌ Failed 2026-11-12T23:42:50.376561Z
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731e3da PR opened
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v0.5 integrated-source acceptance — EXACT SHA 731e3da03bae3ec4cd4ae47556cef87da59069fd

New end-to-end public-first source bundle, five separate source-typed series from four official HTTPS endpoints (2 NBP, 2 Eurostat) and 4 exchange/provider rights queue entries — ONE PR, not one-document PRs.

Original LIVE evidence: official CI run #43331152053 SUCCESS. 2026-11-12T23:43:01.232808 UTC observed: NBP USD/PLN, EUR/PLN and PLN/g gold 22 publication days each in 2026-09, Eurostat PL HICP 13 months 2025-09..2026-09, PL govt ~10Y yield 59 months 2021-11..2026-09. September 2026 original 10Y nominal yield level = 6.23% per annum; previous 12-month PL HICP change = 3.9892%; arithmetic yield-level less past HICP 12m = +2.2408 percentage points. This is NOT bond realized or ex-ante real return, NOT a prediction or backtest profit. Combined receipt SHA256 59c61fac28ddbb79b4185b97b39d84bec0573b02b53ce3c79234c49088c08dce; source individual hashes inside CI metadata, original raw multi-row source values excluded from logs.

All 11/11 exact SHA checks SUCCESS: 12 end-to-end offline negative tests Ubuntu and macOS; original official source; G1 governance Ubuntu/macOS, stack Ubuntu/macOS, GitGuardian, CodeQL static scan, full offline research regression #43331151941 1,360 tests OK, 1 skipped; original live source run above; CodeQL #43331151905 SUCCESS. Automated checks do not constitute formal independent human approval.

Source-bound code review / decision: verified four HTTPS/explicit opt-in only, no credentials or redirect to mirrors, unit and 13/59-month coverage enforced by validated original typed parsers, account/DB/trading operations 0, source SHA and observation UTC, false history PIT and wrong total-return claims explicitly blocked. NBP gold price, FX reference rates and nominal gov convergence yield remain not executable asset total returns.

Exchange discovery AND rights: BondSpot historical TBSP.Index with per-day actual closing/opening index data, BondSpot administrator statement GPW Benchmark since Dec 2019, plus market data policy links user declaration, licence and fee schedule; GPW stock exchange historical XLS and GPW Benchmark index quotes exist. Automated harvesting, use rights, old PIT snapshots and index full TR series remain NOT AUTHORIZED/NOT VERIFIED, not justified by public HTML. Existing Vanguard NAV #97 and Swinkels non-PL CC BY dataset #123 are acknowledged, not duplicated. Source rights caveats documented in Polish package doc.

Scope boundaries: no paid APIs, scraping behind consent, vendor mirror, automatic schedules, DB, real orders, wallet, funds, imports of unlicensed index records or algorithmic trade authorization; source-rights/PIT #116 OPEN; model qualification []/M1–M3 HOLD_CASH. One-shot original reads show 2026-current-vintage statistics, not original as-issued historical data.

Review limitations: semantic/manual assistant inspection + reproducible CI/CodeQL, not a formal independent external review. No new P0/P1 issue identified in the multi-source source gate.

@gniewkob
gniewkob merged commit 1a9aabb into main Nov 12, 2026
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FINAL — Public-first v0.5 broad multi-source package DONE

PR #155 MERGED (squash) from exact PR HEAD 731e3da03bae3ec4cd4ae47556cef87da59069fd (11/11 checks SUCCESS) to main SHA 1a9aabb969dd1444552c9bdf4bf21058db654209. Issue #154 CLOSED.

Actual official public four-endpoint integration source run #43331152053 succeeded, UTC 2026-11-12T23:43:01.232808+00:00: three NBP reference series (USDPLN/EURPLN/PLN/g gold; 22 Sep2026 publication days), Eurostat HICP PL (13 months Sep2025–Sep2026), Eurostat 10Y-ish Polish government nominal bond yield (59 months Nov2021–Sep2026). September 2026 nominal government yield 6.23% p.a., trailing 12m HICP 3.9892%, purely arithmetic backward-looking yield less past inflation +2.2408 pp; not investor bond returns or expected ex-ante real yield. Evidence receipt SHA256 59c61fac28ddbb79b4185b97b39d84bec0573b02b53ce3c79234c49088c08dce. Four individual original-source SHA fingerprints logged without multi-row price data.

Premerge one PR covered source acquisition, validated cross-series analysis, no-network 12 negative cases on each Ubuntu/macOS, G1 Ubuntu/macOS, stack Ubuntu/macOS, GitGuardian, CodeQL, full 1360-test offline regression (1 skipped), source-rights access matrix for BondSpot TBSP historic actual daily index level page, GPW historical XLS index channel, Vanguard NAV owner private original XLSX and CC BY Swinkels non-PL historic bond returns. Rights deliberately remain BLOCKED for automatic exchange bulk ingestion due BondSpot policy user declaration/licence/price list, unknown GPW reuse scope and missing historic original as-of PIT. No mass exchange scraping or payment.

Postmerge exact-main GitHub Actions #43331483758 SUCCESS, same main SHA 1a9aabb969dd1444552c9bdf4bf21058db654209, 1,360 tests OK, 1 skipped. No paid APIs, auto schedules, account access, wallets, trades, DB writes or source promotion. P0 source rights/PIT issue #116 still OPEN; M1–M3 HOLD_CASH and no asset total-return datasets admitted. This PR is an actual five-series joined official-source result, not a collection of single-source documentation issues.

Next broad workstream: evidence-based GPW/BondSpot rights and provider export acceptance (official GPW Benchmark TBSP income-index + equity TR, with exact dataset, license permitted automation and original publication timing), then a single integration batch that uses already present authorized price-only/HICP/yields alongside source-approved actual index total-return data if available, with no circumvention or fees. No point reimplementing current proven NBP/Eurostat modules.

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Public-first v0.5 multi-source: NBP+Eurostat joined macro evidence and GPW/BondSpot rights map

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