Bug: autonomous replan no_followup can make the Goal terminal before its bound quota spend

Summary

An LHTB apex-ib244-matter run exposed two separate behaviors that should not
be conflated:

1. A closed agent vision while the registry Goal remains active produces
   vision_successor_required and then autonomous_replan_required. This is
   expected fail-closed behavior.
2. When that autonomous replan resolves the frontier with a coverage-backed
   no_followup, its durable writeback can derive terminal_no_followup
   before the same settlement identity records its quota spend. The strict
   terminal guard then rejects that pending spend. This is an ordering bug.

The result is an unnecessary control-plane self-repair turn after the benchmark
work itself is already complete.

Observed run

• LoopX revision used by the run:
  1c7b40ea403f9949b22f32071eec237199e52554
• Benchmark result: 38/38 stages submitted
• Final reward: 0.993151
• Scheduler wakes:
  1. normal_run
  2. autonomous_replan_required
  3. autonomous_replan_required
  4. scheduler poll returns terminal_no_followup

Wake 1: benchmark completion and Todo settlement

The agent completed all 38 stages. The first material refresh correctly
reported a missing required vision checkpoint. The agent then:

1. recorded an evidence-linked vision_closed checkpoint;
2. committed the Todo-bound durable writeback;
3. committed exactly one Todo-bound quota spend;
4. completed the Todo with --no-follow-up;
5. read back heartbeat_settled_skip for that Turn.

The vision checkpoint gate and its repair were expected.

Wake 2/3: expected Goal-level replan

On the next fresh Turn, quota projected:

{
  "decision": "autonomous_replan_required",
  "effective_action": "autonomous_replan_required",
  "selected_todo": null,
  "autonomous_replan_obligation": {
    "triggers": [
      {
        "kind": "vision_successor_required",
        "text": "the current stage vision is closed while the registry goal remains active; establish a successor vision before continuing"
      }
    ]
  }
}

This replan is expected: Todo no_followup is not by itself Goal completion.
The Goal still needs either a successor vision or an evidence-backed terminal
frontier decision.

The first replan wake returned without settling the obligation, so the
scheduler correctly presented the same obligation again. The following wake
validated that 38/38 was complete and selected
coverage_backed_no_followup, with an agent vision whose state was
no_followup and whose path outcome was stop.

Failure

The autonomous-replan settlement plan was:

validation -> durable_writeback -> quota_spend

The durable writeback succeeded and derived Goal state
terminal_no_followup. The immediately following, correctly bound
quota spend-slot was rejected because quota accounting no longer admitted
delivery completion spend from a terminal state.

At the point of failure:

validation receipt:       committed
durable writeback receipt: committed
quota spend receipt:       absent
Goal state:                terminal_no_followup
effect identity:           unchanged and correctly replan-bound

This matches the documented terminal_settlement_ordering_gap: terminal state
became visible between two ordered steps of the same effect.

Why this is a bug

The terminal guard is correct to reject new work and unrelated spends after a
Goal is terminal. However, a writeback from the current typed settlement must
not make the remaining step of that exact settlement impossible.

The replan itself is not the bug. The bug is that final Goal-level
no_followup is applied as part of pre-spend writeback instead of as a
conditional post-spend closeout under the same effect identity.

Current main audit

Audited remote main at:

f97ba42219442e4b46819e4795050dd8c41d2389

Current main correctly retains the expected vision behavior:

• tests/control_plane/test_goal_vision_succession.py requires a closed stage
  vision on an active Goal to produce vision_successor_required.
• skills/loopx-self-repair/references/repair-patterns.md documents
  terminal_settlement_ordering_gap and recommends post-spend terminal
  closeout.

Current main also adds a conditional terminal_closeout step for Todo-bound
settlements. However, the exact autonomous-replan path remains uncovered:

• build_turn_scoped_cli_settlement_plan() adds terminal_closeout only when
  todo_id is present; a replan_obligation_id plan still ends at
  quota_spend.
• build_quota_slot_preview_for_decision() still admits delivery completion
  spend only from waiting, focus_wait, operator_gate, or eligible, not
  from terminal_no_followup.
• The focused regressions created during the run are not present on current
  main.

Therefore this issue is recognized and partly addressed for Todo closeout, but
the observed autonomous-replan terminal path is not demonstrably fixed.

Expected behavior

For an autonomous replan whose accepted semantic outcome is
coverage_backed_no_followup, preserve the strict terminal guard while making
the settlement order explicit:

validation
-> durable writeback
-> quota spend
-> conditional terminal closeout

Requirements:

• all four steps use the same typed effect identity and replan obligation;
• terminal mutation requires matching writeback and spend receipts;
• retrying terminal closeout must not repeat writeback or spend;
• unrelated or unbound terminal spends remain rejected;
• cancellation, failed validation, failed writeback, and rejected spend must
  short-circuit before terminal mutation.

Suggested regression coverage

1. Active Goal plus vision_closed still produces
   vision_successor_required and autonomous_replan_required.
2. A replan-bound, coverage-backed no_followup writeback does not strand the
   matching quota spend.
3. Terminal closeout occurs only after matching writeback and spend receipts.
4. Replay produces no additional spend or writeback.
5. A terminal Goal still rejects an unbound spend and a mismatched replan
   obligation.
6. The generic CLI heartbeat path reaches heartbeat_settled_skip without a
   model-authored self-repair worktree.