feat(orchestrate): source per-trade R from the book, behind --edge-decay

[mspinola]

#15 landed EdgeDecayTrigger with nothing to feed it. This adds the substrate half.

The protocol gains a third method

.reoptimize()                    -> Reoptimization
.realized_r_since(since, params) -> periodic R since the incumbent went live
.trade_r_since(since, params)    -> per-TRADE R over that same window  [--edge-decay only]

Sourced over the same ledger-defined window as the periodic series, for the same reason that window comes off the ledger rather than the book: a series measured over the wrong span is a silently wrong answer rather than an error.

The two series stay separate all the way down. Periodic is resampled onto the grid the drift envelope was built on; per-trade is not aggregated at all.

--edge-decay is opt-in and off by default

This is the part that matters for the live job. EdgeDecayTrigger fails open, so switching it on for a book that has no frozen baseline yet makes every cycle fire and re-optimize — which taxes the honest N for no information, since every re-optimization is variants added to the SearchSpaceLog.

A baseline is only written on a promotion, so the correct sequence is:

1. teach the book trade_r_since and a Reoptimization.baseline
2. let one promotion happen
3. then turn the flag on

Enabling it any earlier is strictly worse than leaving it off.

It refuses rather than monitoring nothing

With --edge-decay set and no trade_r_since on the book, the CLI exits with a clear message. Passing an empty series instead would let the trigger fail open and produce a cycle that looks monitored and is not — the exact failure this module is shaped to avoid.

Verification

• 392 tests pass (+4), ruff check crucible_stack tests clean
• Runs against the real published crucible 0.5.0 now, no PYTHONPATH needed

The npf side (trade_r_since on the trend book, plus a frozen baseline from reoptimize) is a companion change in the private repo. npf/scripts/orchestrate_trend.sh is deliberately not changed: the flag stays off until a baseline exists on the ledger.

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