Northflow Technologies · northflow.no Institutional scientific discovery infrastructure for climate, space, and critical systems

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CERES Dashboard — Probabilistic Famine Early Warning

The public-facing dashboard for CERES famine early warning forecasts.

A Next.js application that visualises weekly probabilistic famine risk predictions across 43 high-risk countries — live maps, regional breakdowns, sub-national intelligence, and a public verification ledger.

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Live System

Dashboard: ceres.northflow.no API: ceres-core-production.up.railway.app HDX Dataset: data.humdata.org/dataset/global-ceres-famine-risk-predictions

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Pages

Page	URL	Description
Dashboard	/	Live tier distribution, global map, hypothesis analysis
Regions	/regions	All 43 monitored countries with probability scores
Region Detail	/regions/{iso3}	Full hypothesis chain, driver breakdown, Admin1/Admin2
Map	/map	Global choropleth risk map with Admin1/Admin2 layers
Sub-national	/subnational	Admin1 stress breakdown across monitored countries
Validation	/validation	Public prediction ledger — pending, awaiting, graded
Methodology	/methodology	Full technical documentation
Data Sources	/data	Six data streams, pipeline integration, open downloads
API Access	/api-access	Tier access, pricing, endpoint documentation
About	/about	System overview, HGE platform context

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Quickstart

git clone https://github.com/northflowlabs/ceres
cd ceres
npm install
npm run dev

The dashboard connects to the production API at ceres-core-production.up.railway.app by default. To point at a local backend:

NEXT_PUBLIC_API_URL=http://localhost:8000 npm run dev

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Stack

• Framework: Next.js 15 (App Router)
• Styling: Tailwind CSS
• Maps: Leaflet / React-Leaflet
• Charts: Recharts
• Deployment: Vercel
• API: CERES Core (northflowlabs/ceres-core)

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Architecture

src/
├── app/
│   ├── page.tsx              # Dashboard (live predictions)
│   ├── regions/
│   │   ├── page.tsx          # All regions
│   │   └── [id]/page.tsx     # Region detail
│   ├── map/page.tsx          # Global risk map
│   ├── subnational/page.tsx  # Sub-national breakdown
│   ├── validation/page.tsx   # Public verification ledger
│   ├── methodology/page.tsx  # Technical documentation
│   ├── data/page.tsx         # Data sources
│   ├── api-access/page.tsx   # API documentation
│   └── about/page.tsx        # System overview
├── lib/
│   └── api.ts                # CERES API client
├── components/               # Shared UI components
└── public/
    ├── sitemap.xml
    └── robots.txt

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Validation Ledger

The validation page displays the complete public record of CERES predictions:

Pending — predictions waiting for their T+90 grading window Awaiting Data — grading window open, IPC/FEWS NET data not yet available Graded — predictions graded against published IPC outcomes

Metrics displayed when graded predictions accumulate:

• Brier Score decomposed into reliability, resolution, uncertainty
• Brier Skill Score (BSS) vs climatology baseline
• Sensitivity interval coverage
• Calibration reliability diagram

First grading window: 7 June 2026 (March 9 predictions + 90 days).

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Citation

@article{pedersen2026ceres,
  title={CERES: A Probabilistic Early Warning System for Acute Food Insecurity},
  author={Pedersen, Tom Danny S.},
  journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:2603.09425},
  year={2026}
}

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Related

• Backend: northflowlabs/ceres-core — pipeline, API, grading architecture
• Methodology: arXiv:2603.09425
• Open Data: OCHA HDX

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Licence

CC BY 4.0 — see LICENSE for details.

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Built by Northflow Technologies — open-source AI-native infrastructure for humanitarian forecasting, climate, space, and critical systems. CERES is HGE Adapter #5. Live since 28 February 2026.