Maine School Closure Risk Analysis

CS7250 Information Visualization: Theory & Applications

Project Title: Maine School Closures: A Predictable Crisis

Status: Interactive data visualization and analysis tool for the Maine Redevelopment Land Bank Authority

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Using This Project

This tool provides four integrated views for analyzing Maine school closure risk:

1. Interactive Map (index.md) - Start here

   • Explore 594 Maine schools with color-coded risk scores
   • Click any school for detailed demographics, enrollment trends, and risk factors
   • Filter by school type, location, EPA proximity, and risk threshold
   • Adjust algorithm weights to customize risk assessment

2. High-Risk Schools Report (report.md)

   • View ranked list of CRITICAL and HIGH risk schools
   • Filter by county and risk category
   • Analyze risk patterns through interactive charts
   • Review acquisition strategy recommendations

3. Background Information (background_info.md)

   • Understand the systemic infrastructure crisis
   • Explore historical construction patterns (Sinclair Act legacy)
   • Review environmental hazards and county-level projections
   • See the 50-60 year consolidation cycle

4. MRLBA Strategic Report (report_mrlba.md)

   • Learn how to utilize the data for strategic planning
   • Review methodology and data sources
   • Access comprehensive documentation

Recommended workflow:

1. Start with the Interactive Map to identify target properties
2. Use the High-Risk Report for detailed rankings and analysis
3. Reference Background Info for systemic context
4. Consult the MRLBA Report for strategic guidance

How To Run

1. Clone Repository:

   git clone https://github.com/nudataviz/project-fall25-RachelSchoenberg.git
   cd project-fall25-RachelSchoenberg/MaineViz

2. Install Dependencies:

   npm install

3. Start Development Server:

   npm run dev

4. View in Browser: Navigate to http://localhost:3000

Repository Structure

MaineViz/
├── src/
│   ├── index.md                  # Interactive map with risk analysis
│   ├── Background_Info.md        # Infrastructure & historical context
│   ├── Report_MRLBA.md           # MRLBA strategic guidance
│   ├── Methodology_Citations.md  # Data sources & methodology
│   └── data/
│       ├── demographics.csv      # School demographics & risk scores
│       ├── school_enrollment_timeseries.csv
│       ├── tract_child_population.csv
│       └── epa_sites.csv
├── docs/                         # Additional documentation
├── package.json
└── README.md                     # This file

Key Visualizations

1. Interactive Risk Map

   • 594 Maine schools with risk scores
   • Zoomable county-level detail
   • Click-through school profiles
   • Trend comparisons (enrollment vs. child population)

2. Risk Distribution Charts

   • Score distribution histogram
   • Enrollment patterns by risk category
   • County-level risk concentration
   • Common risk factors analysis

3. Historical Timeline

   • Sinclair Act (1957) to present
   • Construction boom visualization
   • 50-60 year cycle analysis

4. Infrastructure Dashboard

   • Building age distribution
   • Environmental hazards by type
   • Expected county actions

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Project Overview

Stakeholders

• Jen Litteral - Maine Redevelopment Land Bank Authority (MRLBA)
• Dan Black - Maine Redevelopment Land Bank Authority (MRLBA)

Problem Statement

Maine's schools are closing at an alarming rate due to three converging factors:

• Aging infrastructure: 68% of buildings exceed 40-year life expectancy
• Declining enrollment: 73% of districts lost students 2019-2024 (10,000 fewer students statewide)
• Shrinking child populations: Children under 5 dropped 5% from 2013-2023

The Maine Redevelopment Land Bank Authority (MRLBA) needs data-driven tools to identify schools at highest risk of closure for strategic land acquisition, environmental remediation, and community redevelopment planning.

Impact

This interactive visualization tool enables:

• Strategic planning for school property acquisition
• Risk assessment based on enrollment trends and demographic data
• Data-driven decision making for community revitalization
• Environmental remediation planning for properties with hazardous materials

Project Features

1. Interactive Map

• School-by-school risk assessment across Maine
• Color-coded risk visualization (low/medium/high)
• Detailed school profiles with enrollment trends
• Child population demographic analysis by census tract
• EPA brownfield site proximity indicators
• Adjustable risk algorithm weights

2. High-Risk Schools Report

• Comprehensive rankings of CRITICAL (6.5-10) and HIGH (4.5-6.4) risk schools
• County-level analysis and filtering
• Risk factor identification and visualization
• Acquisition strategy framework

3. Background Information

• Infrastructure age distribution analysis
• Historical construction timeline
• Environmental hazards assessment
• County-by-county action projections
• Sinclair Act legacy and historical context

4. MRLBA Strategic Report

• Data utilization guidance
• Interactive tool documentation
• Success metrics framework
• Comprehensive methodology

Data Sources

Primary Sources

• NCES (National Center for Education Statistics)

  • School locations and demographics
  • Enrollment time series data
  • Common Core of Data (CCD)

• U.S. Census Bureau

  • American Community Survey
  • Census tract demographics
  • Child population trends

• Maine Department of Education

  • School building inventory
  • State enrollment data
  • Closed schools database

• EPA (Environmental Protection Agency)

  • Brownfield site locations
  • Remediation status

Analysis Framework

Risk Scoring Algorithm:

• Enrollment decline (>10% drop)
• Child population decline (>5% in census tract)
• Poverty rate (15-35% range)
• Education attainment (5-20% bachelor's degree)
• Unemployment rate (5-15% range)

Scores normalized to 0-10 scale with configurable weights.

Technical Stack

• Observable Framework - Interactive visualization platform
• D3.js & Plot - Data visualization
• TopoJSON - Geographic data
• JavaScript - Custom interactivity
• DuckDB - Data processing (initial analysis)

Team

Name	Role
Rachel Schoenberg	Team Lead
Cody Snow	Member
Hardik Bishnoi	Member

Timeline

• 10/10/2024 - Proposal submitted
• 10/16/2024 - Exploratory Data Analysis completed
• 10/24/2024 - Project status update
• 10/31/2024 - MVP presentation
• 11/7/2024 - Peer review completed
• 11/14/2024 - Peer review response
• 11/21/2024 - Final status update
• 12/5/2024 - Final presentation & repository submission

Acknowledgments

• Maine Redevelopment Land Bank Authority for project sponsorship and domain expertise
• CS7250 Course Staff for guidance and support throughout the project
• Maine Department of Education for data access and context
• U.S. Census Bureau and NCES for comprehensive datasets

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Course: CS7250 Information Visualization: Theory & Applications
Institution: Northeastern University - The Roux Institute
Semester: Fall 2024