Probi - Probstreet Liquidity Bot

Probi is an AI-powered liquidity provision bot designed for the Probstreet prediction market platform.

It ensures that orderbooks always have healthy depth, tight spreads, and fair prices. It uses advanced quantitative finance models (like Avellaneda-Stoikov) to manage its inventory risk while selectively consulting AI to handle extreme market anomalies.

Key Features

• Micro-Price Tracking: Probi doesn't just look at the last traded price. It calculates a volume-weighted "Micro-Price" based on the actual active resting limit orders, making it highly responsive to orderbook depth.
• Smart Inventory Management: Using Avellaneda-Stoikov principles, the bot automatically shifts its pricing ladder if it accumulates too much risk. (e.g., If it holds too many YES shares, it lowers its prices to make selling YES more attractive to traders, naturally dumping its excess inventory).
• AI Anomaly Detection: In normal markets, Probi uses pure, gas-saving mathematical formulas. However, if it detects an anomaly (like a completely empty orderbook, massive spread mismatches, or dangerous risk exposure), it flags the event and consults an LLM to make a strategic decision.
• Auto-Rebalancing: Constantly cancels and replaces outdated limit orders to maintain a predefined liquidity curve around the true market price.

How it Works

1. Observe: The Watcher service scans the PostgreSQL primary database to take a snapshot of the current orderbook, traded prices, and its own portfolio balance/inventory.
2. Decide: The Decider service calculates an anomaly score. If the market is acting weirdly, it asks the AI for a decision. Otherwise, it decides to mathematically rebalance the book.
3. Calculate: The Calculator uses quantitative models to figure out the exact prices and quantities to quote to maintain the spread while keeping inventory risk low.
4. Execute: The Doer cancels old resting orders and pushes the new orders directly to the Redis matching engine queue.

Setup & Usage

Prerequisites

• Bun installed.
• Probstreet PostgreSQL database & Redis running.

Configuration

Environment variables should be placed in a .env file:

# Bot Setup
BOT_USER_ID=b0000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001
BOT_INITIAL_BALANCE=100000

# Timing
TICK_INTERVAL_MS=30000

# Database
DATABASE_URL=postgres://user:pass@localhost:5432/primary-database

# Redis Queue
REDIS_URL=redis://localhost:6379

# AI
GEMINI_API_KEY=your_api_key_here
AI_ANOMALY_THRESHOLD=5

You can tweak the bot's liquidity curve, spread, and risk limits inside src/config/levels.ts.

Running the Bot

Install dependencies:

bun install

Start the bot:

bun start

License

MIT