This project contains a comprehensive 5-year Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model developed as part of a Business Valuation academic assignment. The model estimates the intrinsic value of the target company as of the transaction date, December 31, 2026.
The valuation follows a rigorous multi-step financial process:
- Beta Analysis & Hamada Equation: To determine the appropriate risk profile, I analyzed three industry competitors. I used the Hamada Equation to unlever their betas (average unlevered beta of 1.09) and re-levered the result based on the target company's specific capital structure.
- WACC Calculation: The Weighted Average Cost of Capital (8.678%) was derived using a 2.5% Risk-Free Rate and an 8.5% Market Return.
- Free Cash Flow (FCF) Projections: Forecasted Unlevered FCF from 2026 through 2030, adjusting EBIT for a 30% tax rate, Depreciation & Amortization, Capex, and changes in Working Capital.
- Terminal Value: Calculated using the Gordon Growth Method with a 2% perpetual growth rate.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | €43,441 |
| Equity Value | €43,748 |
| Implied Share Price | €37.55 |
| Current Market Price | €39.00 |
Conclusion: Based on the model, the stock is currently overvalued relative to its intrinsic value.
DCF_Val_Model.xlsx: The full interactive financial model.DCF_Val_Model.pdf: A static export of the model's primary outputs and assumptions.