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Stock-flow consistent agent-based macroeconomic engine β a closed-economy simulation of the Polish economy built from the bottom up. Thousands of heterogeneous agents (households, firms, banks, central bank, government) interact through markets while strict accounting identities are enforced every simulated month.
| Repository | Description |
|---|---|
amor-fati |
SFC-ABM engine β counterfactual macro-policy analysis without representative-agent assumptions |
amor-fati-ledger |
Formally verified (Stainless + Z3) double-entry flow interpreter |
A stock-flow consistent agent-based model (SFC-ABM) with 10,000 heterogeneous firms and 100,000 individual households across 6 sectors, calibrated to the Polish economy (GUS 2024). Six papers and 41,800+ Monte Carlo simulations exploring how universal basic income, monetary regimes, network topology, and household heterogeneity interact to produce phase transitions in automation adoption.
Phase diagram of AI adoption. Left: PLN regime shows reentrant transition β adoption peaks at BDP ~500 PLN then declines as inflation triggers NBP rate hikes. Right: EUR + SGP constraint confines adoption to a narrow island (BDP 1000β3000, low Ο).
| # | Title | Sims | DOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Acceleration Paradox | 6,300 | ||
| 2 | PLN vs EUR with SGP Constraint | 1,260 | ||
| 3 | Empirical CES Ο Estimation | 120 | ||
| 4 | Phase Diagram & Universality | 18,540 | ||
| 5 | Endogenous Technology & Network Dynamics | 10,080 | ||
| 6 | Heterogeneous Households & Limits of UBI | 1,500 | pending |
Engine: core β reusable Scala 3 SFC-ABM engine
- Acceleration paradox β moderate UBI causes automation rather than responding to it; bimodal adoption at the critical point (Hartigan dip p = 1.7 Γ 10-5)
- Monetary sovereignty matters β PLN float permits the transition; EUR + Stability & Growth Pact kills it (SGP caps effective UBI at ~10 PLN by month 120)
- Ο calibration doesn't β 5β9Γ change in CES elasticity shifts adoption by only 1.5 pp; monetary regime dominates (Ξ 6 pp)
- Topology universality β BDPc = 500 PLN across all four network topologies (WS, ER, BA, lattice); mean-field critical exponent Ξ³ β 1.0
- Endogenization preserves universality β Arthur-style learning + preferential rewiring keep the reentrant shape; BDPc shifts by at most 250 PLN
- Aggregate metrics mask destruction β BDPc = 500 appears as a "sweet spot" in aggregates but is the point of peak bankruptcy (17.3%), peak poverty (45%), and peak income Gini (0.50) at the household level
- Scarring catch-22 β unemployment erodes skills and health, making retraining least effective for those who need it most β even doubled intensity yields only 18% success
Bifurcation dynamics. PLN regime (left) exhibits a reentrant peak β adoption rises then falls as fiscal stimulus triggers monetary tightening. EUR regime (right) is capped by Maastricht fiscal rules.





