APIs, datasets, tools, and research for building on prediction markets. For developers and AI agents, not dashboards.
Prediction markets are the best real-time source of calibrated probability for world events. This list focuses on what you need to build with that data — APIs to fetch it, tools to process it, datasets to train on, and research to understand it.
Pull requests welcome. See contributing guidelines.
# Kalshi — what are the markets?
curl -s "https://trading-api.kalshi.co/trade-api/v2/markets?limit=3" | jq '.markets[] | {title, yes_ask, volume}'
# Polymarket — current markets
curl -s "https://clob.polymarket.com/markets?limit=3" | jq '.[] | {question, tokens[0].price}'
# SimpleFunctions — scan any topic, no auth
curl -s "https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/scan?q=oil"
# SimpleFunctions — what changed in the last hour
curl -s "https://simplefunctions.dev/api/changes"Which platform fits your use case?
| Kalshi | Polymarket | Metaculus | Manifold | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auth for market data | No | No | No | No |
| Auth for trading | API key + RSA | Wallet signature | N/A | API key |
| WebSocket | Yes | Yes | No | No |
| Rate limit | 100/min | 500/min | Undocumented | 1000/min |
| Historical data | Settlement CSV | Subgraph + API | Export | Full API |
| Real money | Yes (CFTC) | Yes (USDC) | No | Sweepstakes |
| Market creation | No (Kalshi only) | No (UMA only) | Community | Anyone |
| Best for | US regulated, macro | Crypto-native, global | Research, calibration | Experimentation |
- Exchanges & Platforms
- APIs & SDKs
- MCP Servers
- CLI Tools
- Agent Frameworks & Examples
- Data & Datasets
- Aggregators & Cross-Venue
- Economic & Macro Data
- Analytics & Research Tools
- Tutorials & Guides
- Strategy & Market Structure
- Selected Reading
- Academic Papers
- Project Ideas
- Community
Active prediction market platforms with programmatic access.
| Platform | API | Markets | Settlement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | REST + WebSocket | Economics, politics, weather, science | CFTC-regulated, USD |
| Polymarket | CLOB API | Politics, crypto, global events | Polygon, USDC |
| Metaculus | API | Science, technology, geopolitics | Reputation-based |
| Manifold Markets | API | Anything (user-created) | Play money + sweepstakes |
| PredictIt | API | US politics | CFTC no-action letter, USD |
| Smarkets | API | Politics, sports, current affairs | UK-regulated, GBP |
| Futuur | API | Global events | Play money + real money |
| Insight Prediction | API | Global events | Crypto |
- SimpleFunctions API — Unified REST API for Kalshi + Polymarket. Thesis management, edge detection, what-if scenarios, track record feedback. Free during beta.
- SimpleFunctions CLI — 42 terminal commands for prediction market intelligence. Scan, watch, trade, agent mode.
- Kalshi Official API — REST + WebSocket. Requires account for trading endpoints; market data is public.
- kalshi-python — Official Python client.
- KalshiClientsGo — Official Go client.
- kalgon — Unofficial Python SDK with order management.
- Polymarket CLOB API — Central limit order book. REST + WebSocket.
- py-clob-client — Official Python client for the CLOB.
- clob-client — Official TypeScript client.
- polymarket-rs — Rust SDK.
- Metaculus API — Public question and forecast data.
- metaculusr — R client for Metaculus data.
- Manifold API — Full market CRUD, betting, comments.
- manifoldpy — Python client.
- PyManifold — Alternative Python client.
Connect LLMs to prediction market data via the Model Context Protocol.
- SimpleFunctions MCP — 25 tools: thesis management, edge detection, market search, trading, what-if scenarios. Works with Claude Code, Cursor, Windsurf.
claude mcp add simplefunctions --url https://simplefunctions.dev/api/mcp/mcp
- prediction-market-mcp-example — Minimal 50-line MCP server for learning. Search markets, get context, price changes.
- us-gov-open-data-mcp — 300+ tools across 40+ U.S. government APIs. FRED, Treasury, BLS, Congress, FDA, EPA, SEC. Selective module loading.
- fred-mcp-server — FRED economic data for Claude/Cursor.
- mcp-fredapi — FRED API with series search and category browsing.
- imf-data-mcp — IMF economic data via SDMX 3.0 API.
- SimpleFunctions CLI —
sf scan,sf edges,sf watch,sf agent,sf intent. Covers Kalshi + Polymarket.npm i -g @spfunctions/cli && sf setup - polymarket-cli — Official Polymarket CLI for order placement.
Building AI agents that reason over prediction market data.
- LangChain — Wrap any prediction market API as a LangChain tool. Integration guide.
- CrewAI — Multi-agent crews for market analysis. Integration guide.
- AutoGen — Microsoft's multi-agent framework. Works with any REST API.
- OpenAI Agents SDK — Lightweight agent framework with handoffs and guardrails.
- prediction-market-context — Fetch structured market context for any LLM. One function call.
- causal-tree-decomposition — Standalone probability engine. Decompose a thesis into a causal tree, compute weighted confidence.
- kalshi-price-monitor — Terminal price alert monitor for Kalshi markets.
- polymarket-marketmaking — Market making bot for Polymarket.
- nevbot — Manifold market maker using OpenAI to answer questions.
- SimpleFunctions
/api/changes— Real-time cross-venue price changes. No auth required. - SimpleFunctions
/api/public/context— Structured market context for any topic. No auth required. - Kalshi Market Data — All active markets, orderbook, trade history.
- Polymarket CLOB Data — Markets, orderbook, trades.
- Metaculus API — Questions, forecasts, community predictions.
- MetaForecast — Aggregated forecasts across platforms.
- Kalshi Historical Data — Settlement data for resolved markets.
- Polymarket Subgraph — On-chain data via The Graph.
- Manifold Markets Data — Full market history including bets.
- Good Judgment Open — Crowd forecasting data with track records.
- Metaculus Data Export — Historical question and resolution data.
- SimpleFunctions — Kalshi + Polymarket unified. Edge detection across venues.
- MetaForecast — Aggregates Metaculus, Polymarket, Manifold, Good Judgment, and more.
- Oddpool — Cross-venue odds, spreads, liquidity, arbitrage detection.
- BaseRateTimes — News through the lens of prediction markets.
- Electionbettingodds.com — Aggregated political prediction market odds.
The context layer for prediction markets — the economic indicators, government data, and macro signals that drive the events prediction markets trade on.
- OpenBB — Open-source financial data platform (65K+ stars). Covers FRED, World Bank, BLS, Eurostat, and hundreds of other data sources. Python, CLI, and AI agent integration.
- pandas-datareader — Extract data from FRED, World Bank, OECD, Eurostat, Stooq, and more into pandas DataFrames. The standard Python library for economic data access.
- DBnomics — Aggregates 80+ statistical providers (central banks, national statistics offices, international organizations). R client, Julia client, Stata client. Free API, no auth.
- findatapy — Download market data from Bloomberg, Eikon, Quandl, FRED and more via a unified interface.
- fredapi — Python client for FRED.
pip install fredapi. Supports series search, vintages, releases. - fredr — R client for FRED API. On CRAN.
- fred-rs — Rust crate for FRED.
- fredcpp — C++ client for FRED.
- FredApi.jl — Julia package for FRED.
- fredric — Ruby library and CLI for FRED.
- fred-mcp-server — MCP server for FRED data in Claude/Cursor.
- mcp-fredapi — Another FRED MCP server with search and category browsing.
- FRB — Python client for all Federal Reserve Bank data (not just FRED — includes flow of funds, financial accounts, survey data).
- econ_data — Python notebooks demonstrating FRED, BLS, Census, and BEA API usage with working examples.
- wbdata — Python library for World Bank data. Tested: pulls GDP per capita for any country/date range. No auth.
- world_bank_data — Python library with pandas integration. Tested: pulls CPI inflation for US/CN/GB/BR. No auth.
- WDI — R package for World Bank data. On CRAN, 250+ stars.
- WorldBankData.jl — Julia package for World Bank data.
- blscrapeR — R package for BLS data (unemployment, CPI, wages). 117 stars.
- blsAPI — R client for BLS API. 93 stars.
- BLS-APIs — Python wrapper for BLS v1/v2 APIs.
- BLS API v1 requires no auth key:
curl https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v1/timeseries/data/LNS14000000
- IMFData — R package for IMF data. 49 stars.
- imf-data-mcp — MCP server for IMF economic data via SDMX 3.0 API.
- IMF API requires no auth:
https://data.imf.org(SDMX 3.0)
- eurostat-api-client — Python client for Eurostat data.
- eurostat_downloader — Python tool for bulk Eurostat downloads.
- Eurostat API requires no auth:
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/
- us-gov-open-data-mcp — MCP server + TypeScript SDK for 40+ U.S. government APIs (300+ tools). Covers FRED, Treasury, BLS, Census, EPA, FDA, SEC, Congress, and more. 20+ APIs need no auth key. 94 stars.
- OECD Data API requires no auth:
https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/(SDMX format)
- Polymarket Analytics — Market stats and analytics.
- PolymarketStats — Open source Polymarket analytics.
- Kalshi Research — Market insights and analysis from Kalshi.
- Your First Prediction Market Trade from CLI — Step-by-step walkthrough from install to trade.
- Kalshi API Quick Start (JavaScript + Python) — Fetch markets, place orders, handle auth.
- Connect an AI Agent to Prediction Markets in 5 Minutes — Fastest path to a working agent.
- 5 Ways to Connect Your AI Agent to Prediction Markets — MCP, REST, CLI, LangChain, CrewAI compared.
- How to Build a World-Aware Claude Agent — MCP + Claude Code tutorial.
- How to Build a World-Aware LangChain Agent — Python + LangChain tutorial.
- How to Build a World-Aware CrewAI Crew — Multi-agent crew tutorial.
- How to Build a World-Aware OpenAI Agent — OpenAI Agents SDK tutorial.
- How to Build a World-Aware Mistral Agent — Mistral + function calling tutorial.
- Setting Up Your First Prediction Market Agent — Architecture and design patterns.
- How to Build a Prediction Market Trading Bot — Full architecture from data to execution.
- Thesis to Execution: Full Trading Loop — Create thesis → detect edges → size positions → execute.
- Automate the Thesis Lifecycle — Create, monitor, and trade automatically.
- Running a 24/7 Trading Agent: Architecture & Costs — Infrastructure, monitoring, cost breakdown.
- Pipe Prediction Market Signals into Your Trading System — Webhooks, polling, event-driven.
- Understanding Prediction Market Orderbooks — Complete guide to reading and interpreting.
- Reading Prediction Market Orderbooks — Practical guide with examples.
- How to Scan Prediction Market Orderbooks — Programmatic orderbook scanning.
- Quantitative Orderbook Analysis — Depth, imbalance, flow analysis.
- Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Depth, Spread, Liquidity — What the orderbook tells you.
- Edge Calculation: Theory to Execution — How to calculate and verify edges.
- Cross-Venue Edge Detection: Kalshi vs Polymarket — Find mispricings between venues.
- Position Sizing with Kelly Criterion — Optimal bet sizing for prediction markets.
- How to Backtest a Prediction Market Strategy — Backtesting framework and pitfalls.
- How to Read the World Through Prediction Market Prices — Prices as compressed beliefs.
- News Tells You What Happened, Prediction Markets Tell You What's Happening — Why markets are faster than news.
- Prediction Markets Are the Best Real-Time Sensor for World Events — The case for markets as data infrastructure.
- Three Data Sources: Belief, Action, Sentiment — How prediction markets fit in the data landscape.
- The Prediction Market Data Stack — From raw prices to actionable intelligence.
- Why Your AI Agent Needs a Thesis, Not Just Data — Structured beliefs beat raw signals.
- Causal Tree Decomposition Beats Vibes-Based Trading — Quantify your reasoning.
- The Most Important Number Is the Delta — Why changes matter more than levels.
- Orderbooks Are Fossilized Beliefs — What resting orders reveal.
- 5 Patterns That Kill Prediction Market Traders — Common failure modes and how to avoid them.
- Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Should You Trade? — Fees, liquidity, regulation, API compared.
- Kalshi vs Polymarket Technical Comparison — API, auth, data model differences.
- SimpleFunctions vs Oddpool vs Raw Kalshi API — When to use which tool.
- Prediction Markets vs Polls — Why markets outperform surveys.
- Prediction Market FAQ — Scott Alexander's comprehensive overview.
- Information Markets, Decision Markets, Attention Markets, Action Markets — Taxonomy of market types.
- The Making of a Top Forecaster — Techniques from top INFER forecasters.
- Play Money and Reputation Systems — When play money markets work.
- Market Mechanics — How prediction market mechanics work.
- Incentive Problems with Forecasting — Why prediction markets have structural biases.
- Amplifying Research via Forecasting (Part 1) and Part 2 — Using forecasters to evaluate research claims.
- LLMs as Forecasters — Can language models predict the future?
- Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models — GPT-4 calibration on forecasting tasks.
- Prediction Markets: Theory, Evidence, and Applications — Wolfers & Zitzewitz (2004). The canonical survey.
- The Wisdom of Crowds — Surowiecki. Why aggregated forecasts beat experts.
- Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting — Handbook chapter on using markets for macro forecasting.
- Manipulating Prediction Markets: Evidence from the Field — How hard is it to move a prediction market?
- Information Aggregation in Dynamic Markets with Strategic Traders — Ostrovsky (2012). Theory of information aggregation.
Things you can build with the APIs and tools above.
| Project | Difficulty | Stack |
|---|---|---|
| Cross-venue arbitrage detector — find price differences between Kalshi and Polymarket on the same event | Medium | Python + both APIs |
| Telegram alert bot — notify on 10%+ price moves | Easy | Node.js + SimpleFunctions /api/changes |
| Thesis-driven trading agent — create a causal model, scan for edges, auto-trade | Hard | LangChain + SimpleFunctions MCP |
| Prediction market dashboard — real-time prices, orderbook depth, historical charts | Medium | React + WebSocket APIs |
| Forecasting tournament bot — auto-submit forecasts to Metaculus/Manifold using LLMs | Medium | Python + OpenAI + Metaculus API |
| Market sentiment tracker — correlate prediction market moves with news/X sentiment | Hard | Python + SimpleFunctions + X API |
- Metaculus Community — Active forecasting community with scoring and track records.
- r/predictionmarkets — Reddit community.
- Manifold Discord — Active developer community.
- Polymarket Discord — Trading and data discussion.
- Scott Alexander's Mantic Monday — Weekly prediction market commentary.
- Fork this repo
- Add your resource to the appropriate section
- Keep descriptions short (one line)
- Include a link to source code or documentation
- Submit a PR
What belongs here: APIs, SDKs, datasets, code, tools, research, papers, tutorials. Things developers use to build.
What doesn't belong: Consumer dashboards, portfolio trackers, copy-trading services, news aggregators without an API. Check Awesome Prediction Market Tools for those.
MIT