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Days 43-45: surrogate study (pre-release data) - #151
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…s), pre-release data
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Adds src/shellbench/ml (data, train, conformal), docs/surrogate_notes.md, 7 tests, results and figures. Run on pre-release data; rerun once on the published data. HGB best; conformal coverage on unseen storey counts 0.733 (below the 0.88-0.92 band), reported as found. Tests: 214 passed locally.