Skip to content

systemslibrarian/crypto-lab-harvest-vault

Repository files navigation

What It Is

Browser-based interactive visualizer for the Harvest Now, Decrypt Later (HNDL) quantum threat - the only demo in the crypto-lab suite that does not implement a cryptographic algorithm. Instead it implements a strategic threat model: adversaries are collecting encrypted data today, storing it, and will decrypt it retroactively once quantum computers arrive.

The breach is invisible and retroactive. Organizations that wait to migrate to post-quantum cryptography are not safe - they have already been compromised. They will learn this at Q-Day.

Features Mosca's Theorem (X + Y > Z) as an interactive risk calculator with sector-specific presets, an interactive HNDL timeline from 2013 through the Q-Day probability window, and a sector risk matrix across healthcare, government, finance, legal, library, and enterprise.

When to Use It

  • Explaining to leadership why PQC migration is urgent NOW, not when quantum computers arrive
  • Calculating your organization's specific Mosca risk exposure
  • Understanding why perfect forward secrecy is the best available protection for communications that are already being transmitted
  • Teaching the difference between the harvest phase (now) and the decrypt phase (future) - two separate events with a long gap between
  • Do NOT use as a substitute for a professional cryptographic risk assessment - the Q-Day estimates are ranges, not hard dates

Live Demo

https://systemslibrarian.github.io/crypto-lab-harvest-vault/

GitHub Pages Deployment

This project is configured for GitHub Pages via GitHub Actions.

  1. Push changes to the main branch.
  2. In GitHub repo settings, set Pages source to GitHub Actions.
  3. The workflow in .github/workflows/deploy.yml builds with Vite and deploys dist/.

The Vite base path is already set in vite.config.ts for this repository:

/crypto-lab-harvest-vault/

What Can Go Wrong

  • PQC migration does not protect already-harvested data. Deploying ML-KEM tomorrow does not decrypt-protect communications from last year. Perfect forward secrecy is the only protection for communications that have already occurred - and only if it was deployed before collection.
  • Q-Day uncertainty is real. The 2030+-3 estimate is a consensus center of a wide distribution. Some credible researchers say 2028. Some say 2040. Mosca's Theorem is robust to this uncertainty: use the optimistic estimate (Z=6) and see if X+Y>6. If it is, you cannot afford to be wrong.
  • Symmetric crypto is NOT the threat. AES-256 and SHA-512 are safe against Grover's quadratic speedup. The HNDL threat targets RSA and ECC key exchange - the handshake that establishes the session, not the session itself. See crypto-lab-grover for the symmetric story.
  • The storage counter is illustrative. ~23 TB/second of RSA/ECC traffic is an order-of-magnitude estimate. Nation-state storage costs are real but the exact collection rate is unknown.

Real-World Usage

The HNDL threat is confirmed - NSA mass collection of encrypted traffic was documented in the 2013 Snowden disclosures. State-level adversaries with fiber access, BGP influence, or compromised infrastructure have been collecting encrypted communications for years.

NIST explicitly cites HNDL as the primary driver for urgent PQC migration: "starting the transition to post-quantum cryptography now is critical to preventing these future breaches." FBI, CISA, and NIST have designated 2026 the Year of Quantum Security.

Cloudflare's internal Q-Day readiness deadline has been moved forward following 2025-2026 resource estimate papers. They are targeting full post-quantum security by 2029.

The migration window is open. It will not stay open forever.

About

Browser-based harvest-now-decrypt-later (HNDL) threat demo — intercept simulation, post-quantum migration urgency, timeline visualization. Part of crypto-lab.

Topics

Resources

Stars

Watchers

Forks

Releases

No releases published

Packages

 
 
 

Contributors