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sync: tsp-arb-latency harness fix (#1212) to main - #1214

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Flotapponnier merged 1 commit into
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Jul 16, 2026
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sync: tsp-arb-latency harness fix (#1212) to main#1214
Flotapponnier merged 1 commit into
mainfrom
chore/cherry-tsp-arb-fix-main

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Cherry-pick of #1212 harness changes only (spec is dev-only). Lower trigger 50->25 bps + credit sub-poll closures. Railway auto-rebuilds tokenized-stock-peg after merge.

#1212)

Bench 080 published only 7 samples across 3 of 11 assets in 24h at
50 bps trigger. Two contributing causes fixed together:

1) Trigger from 50 -> 25 bps. 50 bps in 90s is a headline move on
   Nasdaq (earnings, macro prints), not a steady-state event. 25 bps
   is above normal intra-minute noise on liquid stocks and captures
   real arb-worthy moves without collapsing the semantic.

2) Sub-poll convergence credited. When the reference moves past the
   trigger AND the pool is already within band on the same tick, the
   arb closed inside one poll interval. Previously dropped silently;
   now observed at pollInterval (60s) so the fast-arb tail on liquid
   pools stops disappearing from the histogram.

Convergence threshold stays at 20 bps: the "how close is the pool to
fair" question is unchanged, only trigger sensitivity moves. Spec
text (subtitle, methodology, FAQ) updated to 25 bps throughout.

Co-authored-by: Florent Tapponnier <contact@mobula.io>
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Flotapponnier merged commit 292a0fc into main Jul 16, 2026
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Flotapponnier deleted the chore/cherry-tsp-arb-fix-main branch July 16, 2026 13:19
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