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sync: tsp-arb-latency harness fix (#1212) to main #1214

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Merged
Flotapponnier merged 1 commit into from
Jul 16, 2026
Merged

sync: tsp-arb-latency harness fix (#1212) to main #1214

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30 changes: 24 additions & 6 deletions harnesses/tokenized-stock-peg/cmd/script/arb_latency.go
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -27,10 +27,18 @@ import (
// - if in flight but not yet converged, keep waiting (no cap: the
// "unresolved" case is the story we want to tell too)

// Trigger threshold lowered from 50 bps to 25 bps on 2026-07-16 after
// 24h of live data returned only 7 samples across 3 of 11 assets.
// Nasdaq stocks routinely move 25 bps in a 90s window while a 50 bps
// move is a headline event, so the tighter cohort under-sampled the
// steady-state arb latency the bench is meant to measure. Convergence
// band stays at 20 bps: the "how close is the pool to fair" question
// is unchanged, only the trigger sensitivity moves.
const (
arbTriggerBps = 50.0
arbConvergedBps = 20.0
arbMoveWindow = 90 * time.Second // ~1 minute plus one poll jitter
arbTriggerBps = 25.0
arbConvergedBps = 20.0
arbMoveWindow = 90 * time.Second // ~1 minute plus one poll jitter
subPollLatencySec = 60.0 // credit sub-poll arb closures at one pollInterval
)

var (
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -111,9 +119,7 @@ func (t *arbTracker) observe(asset, issuer string, now time.Time, ref, pool floa

if !inFlight {
// Start a new event only if the reference actually moved and
// the pool is currently out of the convergence band. If the
// pool was already within band during the move, arbs closed
// it faster than one tick, credit as "sub-poll".
// the pool is currently out of the convergence band.
if moveBps >= arbTriggerBps && devBps > arbConvergedBps {
t.open[asset] = arbEvent{
startedAt: now,
Expand All @@ -122,6 +128,18 @@ func (t *arbTracker) observe(asset, issuer string, now time.Time, ref, pool floa
poolAtTrigger: pool,
}
tspArbOpenAgeSeconds.WithLabelValues(asset, issuer).Set(0)
return
}
// Sub-poll convergence: the reference moved past the trigger
// AND the pool is already within band on this tick, so the arb
// closed inside a single poll interval. Historically dropped;
// now credited at pollInterval seconds so the histogram picks
// up the fast-arb tail that dominates on liquid assets. Without
// this, calm sessions publish zero events for well-behaved
// pools and the leaderboard reads sparse.
if moveBps >= arbTriggerBps {
tspArbLatencySeconds.WithLabelValues(asset, issuer).Observe(subPollLatencySec)
tspArbEventTotal.WithLabelValues(asset, issuer, "converged").Inc()
}
return
}
Expand Down
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