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feat(analysis): LEO 衛星通訊技術 × TW 供應鏈 deep-dive - #4

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Summary

  • 新增 6k 字 Traditional Chinese deep-dive (docs/analysis/2026-06-18-LEO-satellite-deep-dive.md),涵蓋 4 大星座 (Starlink v1/v2/v2-full, Kuiper, OneWeb/Eutelsat, 台星 B5G) × 6 個晶片 block × 8 家個股 deep-dive
  • 81 unique proper-noun wikilinks → Obsidian-style cross-reference 索引
  • scripts/build_themes.py:新增 optional analysis_doc 欄位 (additive 5-行 patch),使 themes/<topic>.md 自動產出時可注入 📖 deep-dive header link。向後相容,其他主題不變;可重用於 CoWoS / 矽光子 / HBM / EUV 之後的 deep-dive
  • themes/低軌衛星.md 重生:頂部新增 📖 連結,雙向 link 機制完成
  • docs/superpowers/specs/2026-06-18-leo-satellite-analysis-design.md:完整 brainstorming spec(產品需求、章節骨架、研究方法論)
  • docs/analysis/research-notes/00-verification-log.md:6 點 adversarial verification log,攔截 2 個 worker confabulation

報告誠實揭露點

  • §3.6 ADC/DAC structural gap:TW 無 commercial > 10 GSPS RF ADC/DAC;TASA Beyond 5G LEO payload 由美商承包(Focus Taiwan 2025-04-01)
  • §5.3 全訊 (5222):無公開資料證實 Starlink 終端 PA design-win — 正確定位為 defense-LEO SAR + 地面站 mmWave PA,非 Starlink supplier
  • §5.7 聯發科 (2454) 中性贏家 thesis:cross-verified against 2 個官方 MediaTek press release
    • 2025-02-24 全球首次 5G NR-NTN over OneWeb LEO(含 ITRI gNB)
    • 2025-11-03 全球首次 3GPP Rel-19 5G-Advanced NR-NTN over OneWeb LEO(含 ESA、Sharp、ITRI、R&S)
  • §6 風險章節含 SpaceX 垂直整合 + Direct-to-Cell 對傳統 UT 結構性替代 + 中美脫鉤

Adversarial verification (見 Appendix B + research-notes/00-verification-log.md)

Claim 結果
昇達科 2026 Q1 80.81% LEO ❌ Worker confabulated;改為「2026 全年挑戰 80%」
聯發科 2025-02 / 2025-11 OneWeb LEO 首連 ✅ 兩個官方 press release 全部 confirmed
穩懋 Filtronic-SpaceX 合作 ⚠️ Filtronic URL 403;保持「市場傳聞」標記
7717 萊德光電 H1 2025 衛星 50% ❌ UDN 文章沒此數字;降級為「候選,待證實」
Amazon 收購 Globalstar / Apple 衛星手機市占 ✅ MacRumors confirmed

方法論

12 個 parallel background research worker agents(4 個 tech-chapter + 8 個 ticker deep-dive)並行收集材料;workers 在 worktree 內遇 permission denial 無法寫檔/commit,全部以 inline final message 回傳 findings。coordinator 從 inline findings 跨 worker 整合,再以 6 個 high-priority 量化主張 WebFetch 交叉驗證後串行寫主報告。

Test plan

  • python3 scripts/build_themes.py 低軌衛星 重生,頂部出現 📖 link
  • 其他主題 regenerate 不受影響(additive if theme_def.get(\"analysis_doc\") guard)
  • 主報告 22,468 chars(~6k 字 narrative + tables + appendices)
  • 81 unique proper-noun wikilinks(CLAUDE.md Golden Rule 1 minimum = 8)
  • Appendix A 對齊 themes/低軌衛星.md 42 家(merge 時可能 master 已增至 45 — 由後續 build regeneration 補完)
  • Confidence marker 慣例:unmarked = IR/法說會/年報;(市場傳聞) = 媒體;(推測) = 產品線推論

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Fills the gap between mechanical theme index (themes/低軌衛星.md, auto-generated
by build_themes.py from wikilink reverse lookup, covers 42 TW companies) and
curated narrative that maps technology blocks → chip → module → system → tickers.

Deliverables:
- docs/analysis/2026-06-18-LEO-satellite-deep-dive.md (~6k 字 Traditional
  Chinese, 81 unique wikilinks, 4 constellations × 6 chip blocks × 8 tickers)
- docs/superpowers/specs/2026-06-18-leo-satellite-analysis-design.md (full
  design spec from brainstorming session)
- docs/analysis/research-notes/00-verification-log.md (6-point adversarial
  verification ledger that caught 2 worker confabulations: W06 fabricated
  "2026 Q1 80.81% LEO" and W04 fabricated "7717 50% satellite H1 2025")
- scripts/build_themes.py: 5-line additive patch — optional analysis_doc
  field on THEME_DEFINITIONS injects 📖 deep-dive header link when set.
  Backward compatible: other themes unaffected. Reusable for future CoWoS /
  矽光子 / HBM deep-dives.
- themes/低軌衛星.md: regenerated; now header-links the deep-dive.

Methodology: 12 parallel research worker agents (4 tech-chapter + 8 ticker
deep-dive) gathered material; permission denial in worker worktrees forced
all to return inline findings rather than persisted files. Coordinator
aggregated inline findings into the main report after adversarial
cross-verification of 6 high-priority quantitative claims (4/6 confirmed,
2/6 confabulations caught, 1 source URL unverifiable kept as 市場傳聞).

Honesty markers throughout the report:
- §3.6 explicitly documents TW ADC/DAC structural gap (TASA Beyond 5G LEO
  payload built by US vendor, per Focus Taiwan 2025-04-01).
- §5.3 全訊: no public Starlink design-win evidence — framed as defense-LEO
  SAR + ground-station mmWave PA, not Starlink supplier.
- §5.7 聯發科 中性贏家 thesis verified against 2 official MediaTek press
  releases (2025-02-24 first 5G NR-NTN over OneWeb LEO with ITRI gNB;
  2025-11-03 first 3GPP Rel-19 5G-Advanced NR-NTN over OneWeb LEO with
  ESA + Sharp + ITRI + R&S).

Confidence marker convention applied: unmarked = IR/法說會/年報 confirmed,
*(市場傳聞)* = press only, *(推測)* = inferred from product line.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Per the newly-established analytical framework in CLAUDE.md:
1. Add §6.3 對偶 long/short candidate mapping — every catalyst/risk
   now names symmetric winner + loser pair (e.g., Direct-to-Cell long
   聯發科 → short 啟碁/攸泰科技/台揚)
2. Expand Appendix B to include channel-check 加權 (B.1) — explains
   per-source trust rationale based on 第幾手 / 位置 / 誘因 / track
   record. Renumbered original verification summary to B.2.

Framework principle applied: "同一個變化必然伴隨對稱輸家". The report
already implicitly identified some losers (e.g., D2C shrinking UT
market), but now they're explicitly paired and tabulated.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
leehao921 added a commit to leehao921/Semiconductor-Supply-Chain that referenced this pull request Jul 9, 2026
leehao921 added a commit to leehao921/Semiconductor-Supply-Chain that referenced this pull request Jul 9, 2026
Triggered by 2026/4 Infineon-led 5-15% pricing cycle, Nexperia (Wingtech)
Dutch-government export control, and AI server 800V HVDC architecture
upgrade — three convergent catalysts hitting TW power semi cluster.

Deliverables:
- docs/analysis/2026-06-18-power-semi-pmic-deep-dive.md (~21k chars
  Traditional Chinese, 61 unique wikilinks, 13 individual ticker deep-dives)
- docs/superpowers/specs/2026-06-18-power-semi-pmic-design.md (full design spec)
- scripts/build_themes.py: (1) restore analysis_doc rendering logic
  (additive, backward compatible) — auto-injects 📖 header link when a
  THEME_DEFINITION provides analysis_doc field; (2) add new 功率半導體 theme
  pointing to the deep-dive
- themes/功率半導體.md: new auto-generated theme index with 📖 deep-dive link

Coverage spans 3 sub-clusters per user direction:
- Discrete IDM/fabless: 強茂 2481, 德微 3675, 台半 5425, 富鼎 8261,
  大中 6435, 杰力 5299
- Wafer foundry / Epitaxy: 漢磊 3707 (SiC/GaN), 世界先進 5347 (8" BCD),
  嘉晶 3016 (SiC/GaN epi)
- PMIC integrated: 矽力-KY 6415, 致新 8081, 茂達 6138, 天鈺 4961

Three catalysts each verified to ≥2 sources:
- Infineon 4/1 5-15% hike confirmed via 工商時報 + 數位時代 + Smart 自學網
- TI 7/1 PMIC+MOSFET second wave confirmed via Pocketstock + 數位時代
- Nexperia event timeline (Dutch 10/13 takeover, China retaliation,
  Wingtech $1.2B lawsuit) via Wikipedia + Nexperia official press
- NVIDIA 800V HVDC 2026Q4 timeline via SemiAnalysis + Szsanyi
- Open Compute ORv3/ORv4 specs via OCP + Molex

Honesty markers:
- §3.2 IGBT TW gap (high-voltage power modules still dominated by
  Infineon/Mitsubishi/Fuji — TW structural weakness)
- §3.5 SiC 8" wafer lag (1-2 years behind Wolfspeed/STM)
- §5.6 漢磊 still loss-making (2025 GM -3.30%) — call this out explicitly
- §6 risks include Nexperia US capacity ramp narrowing TW transfer window

Confidence markers: unmarked = IR/法說會/年報 confirmed, *(市場傳聞)* =
press-only, *(推測)* = inferred from product line.

Note: this PR's build_themes.py adds analysis_doc rendering logic. The
sibling LEO satellite PR (Timeverse#4) adds the same logic
plus the 低軌衛星 analysis_doc field. Merge order: either PR first; the
second merge will need to resolve the duplicate rendering-logic block in
build_themes.py around line 226 (additive lines, easy to merge by hand).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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