🧪 [DO NOT MERGE] Preview: crowd-forecast signals on /impact (Polymarket + Kalshi)

src/app/impact/page.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,124 @@
+import type { Metadata } from 'next'
+import Breadcrumb from '@/components/Breadcrumb'
+import ImpactDashboard, { type LiveMetric, type LiveOutputs } from '@/components/ImpactDashboard'
+import MeasuringQuestions from '@/components/MeasuringQuestions'
+import { fetchSimocracyStats } from '@/lib/simocracy'
+import { fetchGainforestStats } from '@/lib/gainforest'
+import { fetchGlowStats } from '@/lib/glow'
+import { resolveAllSignals } from '@/lib/market-signals'
+import { FIELD_COLOR, HAND_COLOR } from '@/lib/inflection-points'
+
+// Pull live output metrics for the Economies & Governance inflection points from
+// the same sources as the FA2 live dashboard. These are Q3 OUTPUTS (the work
+// PL-backed teams have produced) — never Q2 progress toward a threshold.
+export const revalidate = 60
+
+async function fetchLiveOutputs(): Promise<LiveOutputs> {
+  const compact = (n: number) =>
+    new Intl.NumberFormat('en-US', { notation: 'compact', maximumFractionDigits: 1 }).format(n)
+  const out: LiveOutputs = {}
+
+  const [sim, gf, glow] = await Promise.allSettled([
+    fetchSimocracyStats(),
+    fetchGainforestStats(),
+    fetchGlowStats(),
+  ])
+
+  // A binding decision at scale — Simocracy (a PL-supported deliberation mechanism).
+  if (sim.status === 'fulfilled' && !sim.value.degraded) {
+    const t = sim.value.totals
+    const metrics: LiveMetric[] = [
+      { n: t.uniqueHumans, label: 'participants' },
+      { n: t.totalSims, label: 'simulations' },
+      { n: t.totalGatherings, label: 'gatherings' },
+    ]
+      .filter((m) => m.n > 0)
+      .map((m) => ({ value: compact(m.n), label: m.label }))
+    if (metrics.length) out['A binding decision at scale'] = metrics
+  }
+
+  // Capital that pays on verified outcomes — GainForest + Glow (PL-backed MRV teams).
+  const verified: LiveMetric[] = []
+  if (gf.status === 'fulfilled' && !gf.value.degraded) {
+    const g = gf.value
+    if (g.observations > 0) verified.push({ value: compact(g.observations), label: 'species observations' })
+    if (g.certifiedOrgs > 0) verified.push({ value: compact(g.certifiedOrgs), label: 'certified orgs' })
+  }
+  if (glow.status === 'fulfilled' && !glow.value.degraded) {
+    const gl = glow.value
+    if (gl.activeFarms > 0) verified.push({ value: compact(gl.activeFarms), label: 'active solar farms' })
+    if (gl.carbon > 0) verified.push({ value: compact(gl.carbon), label: 'tCO₂ / wk' })
+  }
+  if (verified.length) out['Capital that pays on verified outcomes'] = verified
+
+  return out
+}
+
+export const metadata: Metadata = {
+  title: 'Impact',
+  description:
+    'How we measure whether PL R&D’s work matters: the inflection points we have pre-registered across every focus area, and how we will know if they happen.',
+}
+
+export default async function ImpactPage() {
+  const [liveOutputs, marketSignals] = await Promise.all([
+    fetchLiveOutputs(),
+    resolveAllSignals(),
+  ])
+  return (
+    <div>
+      {/* Hero */}
+      <div className="max-w-6xl mx-auto px-6 pt-8">
+        <Breadcrumb items={[{ label: 'Impact' }]} />
+        <div className="pt-8 pb-10">
+          <h1 className="text-2xl lg:text-[44px] font-semibold leading-[1.1] tracking-tight mb-5 max-w-2xl">
+            Our impact
+          </h1>
+          <p className="text-lg text-gray-600 leading-relaxed max-w-2xl">
+            Across our four focus areas we have named a small set of{' '}
+            <strong className="font-semibold text-black">inflection points</strong> — specific,
+            observable, falsifiable shifts we believe would be catalytic, and that have not yet
+            happened.
+          </p>
+          <a
+            href="#methodology"
+            className="mt-6 inline-flex items-center gap-2 text-gray-600 hover:text-gray-900 transition-colors font-medium text-[15px]"
+          >
+            Our methodology
+            <svg className="w-4 h-4" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24">
+              <path strokeLinecap="round" strokeLinejoin="round" strokeWidth={2} d="M19 9l-7 7-7-7" />
+            </svg>
+          </a>
+        </div>
+      </div>
+
+      {/* Inflection points — grey full-bleed section to set it apart from the rest of the site */}
+      <section className="border-y border-gray-200 bg-gray-100">
+        <div className="max-w-6xl mx-auto px-6 py-14 lg:py-16">
+          <h2 className="text-xl lg:text-2xl font-semibold tracking-tight mb-2">
+            Inflection points we are tracking
+          </h2>
+          <p className="text-base text-gray-600 leading-relaxed max-w-3xl mb-8">
+            Select a focus area. Each card shows the defined threshold (did it happen), the cascade we
+            expect if it matters, and the PL contribution we would trace.
+          </p>
+          <ImpactDashboard liveOutputs={liveOutputs} marketSignals={marketSignals} />
+        </div>
+      </section>
+
+      {/* Our methodology */}
+      <div id="methodology" className="max-w-6xl mx-auto px-6 py-14 lg:py-16 scroll-mt-24">
+        <h2 className="text-xl lg:text-2xl font-semibold tracking-tight mb-2">Our methodology</h2>
+        <p className="text-base text-gray-600 leading-relaxed max-w-3xl mb-8">
+          For every inflection point we ask three questions — different jobs that should not be
+          collapsed into a single score. We hold two axes apart:{' '}
+          <strong className="font-semibold" style={{ color: HAND_COLOR }}>our hand</strong> (the work
+          we control) and{' '}
+          <strong className="font-semibold" style={{ color: FIELD_COLOR }}>the field</strong> (the
+          change that follows, with or without us).
+        </p>
+        <MeasuringQuestions />
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  )
+}

src/app/insights/page.tsx

@@ -18,7 +18,12 @@ const FALLBACK_CARDS = {
   'card-blog': { title: 'Blog' },
 }
 
-export default async function InsightsPage() {
+export default async function InsightsPage({
+  searchParams,
+}: {
+  searchParams: Promise<{ area?: string }>
+}) {
+  const { area: initialArea } = await searchParams
   const page = await fetchPage('insights')
   const hero = getSection(page, 'hero')
   const heroTitle = hero?.title || FALLBACK_HERO_TITLE
@@ -109,7 +114,7 @@ export default async function InsightsPage() {
         </div>
       )}
 
-      <InsightsExplorer sections={insightSections} areas={areaDefs} />
+      <InsightsExplorer sections={insightSections} areas={areaDefs} initialArea={initialArea} />
 
       <EditPageButton rkey="insights" />
     </div>