🧪 [DO NOT MERGE] Preview: crowd-forecast signals on /impact (Polymarket + Kalshi)#45
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🧪 [DO NOT MERGE] Preview: crowd-forecast signals on /impact (Polymarket + Kalshi)#45lksbrssr wants to merge 18 commits into
lksbrssr wants to merge 18 commits into
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Adds /impact — a public, filterable dashboard that tracks PL R&D's impact via the twelve pre-registered inflection points, one set per focus area. What it does: - Filterable by focus area (vertical tab rail); a user always lands in one area rather than seeing all twelve at once. - Each inflection point is a card with a Defined -> Emerging -> Reached -> Scaling field-progress meter and a PL-role tag (Substrate / Originator / Funder & convener). Clicking opens a detail modal. - The modal traces Q1 (did it happen — the pre-registered threshold), Q2 (did it matter — the cascade), and Q3 (did our work make it happen) as Inputs -> Activities -> Outputs. - Field progress and PL contribution are kept on separate axes and never collapsed into one score: a point can be reached with little PL involvement and that is still a win for the field. - For the two Economies & Governance points with live data, the modal pulls live OUTPUTS from the same sources as the FA2 live dashboard (GainForest, Glow, Simocracy) — labelled strictly as Q3 contribution evidence, never as Q1 progress. Fetched server-side with 60s ISR and graceful fallback. - A "Measuring impact" explainer covers the logic model and the three questions. - Adds an "Impact" item to the main nav. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Inflection section intro: drop the "pre-registering keeps us honest / reading not an argument" tail; "pre-registered" -> "defined" threshold. - Cards: remove the redundant "Defined" status pill (the field meter already shows stage); rename the teaser label "Signal it happened" -> "Inflection point". - Detail modal: tag Q1 with "Impact" and Q2 with "Outcome" so all three questions share the logic-model row layout used by Q3's Inputs / Activities / Outputs. - Measuring impact: move the "each inflection point instantiates this chain" note above the logic-model strip; style the strip labels as grey uppercase to match the detail cards. - Three-questions explainer: surface each question's logic-model stage(s) — Impact, Outcomes, and Inputs/Activities/Outputs — to tie the section back to the cards. - Hoist LOGIC_MODEL into lib/inflection-points so the strip, the explainer, and the modal share one vocabulary. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Replace the single contributionLevel (substrate/originator/funder-convener) with an array of PL roles named by the bottleneck each releases: Infrastructure, Legibility, Connection, Capital, Translation, Permission. Cards now render one pill per role; the Measuring-impact Q3 tab lists all six roles and its copy reflects 'one or more' instruments.
The role pill descriptions in the inflection-point modal duplicated the 'Measuring impact' Q3 explainer. Keep the role pills (with hover titles) but remove the description list so the explanation lives in one place.
…tcome) + self-contained role tooltips - Q1 is now 'Did it matter?' (impact) and Q2 'Did it happen?' (outcome), consistent across the inflection-point detail modal and the Measuring- impact tabs (and doc comments / live-evidence notes). - Role pills now carry a label + description tooltip matching the Measuring-impact Q3 role explainer.
Native title was unreliable; replace with a scoped CSS tooltip (group/role) that shows the role's label + description on hover, pulled from the same ROLE_META used by the Measuring-impact Q3 section.
Add FIELD_COLOR (teal) / HAND_COLOR (violet) tokens; update ROLE_META and LOGIC_MODEL copy to the mockup wording.
Drop focus-area color coding (neutral icons). Card now shows a teal 'field' axis (meter + did it happen & matter) and a violet 'our hand' axis (role pills + did our work help), plus a LIVE SIGNAL block for points with live outputs. Modal recolored/reordered to A (our hand) / B, C (the field).
… section Measuring-impact section: color-code the logic-model chain by axis, dot legend (not tick-boxes), and three always-visible A/B/C question cards. Extract the six PL roles into a separate 'toolkit' section.
- Swap axis colors: field = purple, our hand = PL blue (#1982F4); teal removed - Live signal now a pulsing green dot; 'Live outputs' -> 'Live signal' - Cards: 'Detail' affordance (subtle top-right, not a full row); 'Methodology' removed - Detail modal: wider + two-column (our hand | the field) with full-width live signal; remove repeated status badge and the field explainer; 'the signal' -> 'the inflection point'; 'Did our work help?' -> 'Is our work making a difference?' - AI & Robotics empty state: 'inflection points' instead of 'pre-registered bets'
- Detail modal: inputs/activities/outputs are now headers over their text (aligned with the field side); rename 'Field progress' to 'Progress against Inflection Point'; drop 'The only axis we control' subheading. - Generic 'Live signal' footnote on cards + detail that carry live data. - Mark communication / provenance / public-goods / verified-outcomes as Emerging (early-signal). - Measuring: remove the dot legend (already conveyed in the subheader).
- Hero: add 'Our methodology' scroll link (landing-page style); rename the section to 'Our methodology' with a #methodology anchor. - Field axis color -> black (drop purple); hand stays PL blue, live green. - Methodology block: A card is wide with role pills + a subtle 'See the roles we play' link opening a pop-out roles modal; B/C narrow. Remove the standalone toolkit section. - Copy: 'Is our work making a difference?' -> 'Our contribution to field progress'; A axis line -> 'The axis we control with our partners'.
- Remove the inputs->impact logic-model boxes; keep just the three evenly-spaced question cards. - Measuring copy: A 'What difference are we making?', B 'Did the inflection point happen?', C 'Did reaching the inflection point matter?' - Detail modal keeps short B/C; A reworded to 'How is PL making a difference?' (card hint too).
Card A is now a button that opens the roles modal (like the inflection detail cards), with 'See the roles we play' as a subtle hover affordance instead of the only click target.
- Detail card bottom band now spans full width: live-signal metrics (when present) plus a 'See the latest <focus area> insights' link. - Deep-link: /insights?area=<slug> pre-selects that focus-area filter (InsightsExplorer takes an initialArea; page reads searchParams). - Measuring copy: A 'Did PL's work make a difference?', B 'Were the inflection points reached?'.
Integrated into the /impact dashboard (stacked on PR daviddao#29, not amending it): - src/lib/market-signals.ts — maps each inflection point to its closest market, choosing Polymarket vs Kalshi per match quality, with a liquidity fallback. Public Gamma + Kalshi APIs, hourly ISR. - ImpactDashboard: crowd read on the FIELD axis (card + modal), platform badge, fallback tag, gap state; never conflated with PL contribution. - impact/page.tsx: resolveAllSignals() alongside existing live outputs. For discussion only.
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Per review: the crowd read now sits inside the modal's full-width Live signal bar (alongside PL-backed live outputs) instead of under 'Impact — the cascade' in the field column. Gap points show a separate crowd-forecast note. Field-vs-contribution caveat preserved.
Thread per-market USD volume through MarketSignal (Polymarket volumeNum; Kalshi dollar_volume, falling back to contract count) and render a compact '$15k at stake' chip next to the crowd probability in the modal's Live signal band.
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Folded into #29 — the crowd-forecast + market-volume work now lives directly in the /impact dashboard PR alongside the modal restructure (single-column The field / Our hand / Live signal, roles as contribution headers, Permission→Policy). Closing so it's all in one place. |
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This branch is stacked on top of #29 (the impact-dashboard PR, not yet merged), so the diff below includes #29's files. My actual delta is only 3 files:
src/lib/market-signals.ts(new)src/components/ImpactDashboard.tsxsrc/app/impact/page.tsxEverything else is inherited from #29. Review the delta in lksbrssr#2; use the Vercel preview here to click through it live at
/impact.What it does
Each inflection point is a pre-registered, falsifiable, dated bet — what prediction markets price. This adds a crowd-forecast read on the FIELD axis of every inflection card + modal: an external, independent "will it happen?" estimate, kept separate from PL contribution (Q3) and from a settled Q2.
Kalshi and Polymarket, chosen per match quality (best-match primary + liquidity fallback, platform badge,
(fallback)tag, and a "No market yet — unpriced bet" gap state):Screenshots
Caveats: reads are proxies, not exact restatements; Kalshi live prices may be null depending on liquidity (the fallback handles that); nothing here endorses gambling.