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Impact Dashboard#29

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daviddao:mainfrom
lksbrssr:lukas/impact-dashboard
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Impact Dashboard#29
lksbrssr wants to merge 36 commits into
daviddao:mainfrom
lksbrssr:lukas/impact-dashboard

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@lksbrssr lksbrssr commented Jun 29, 2026

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Summary

Cross-focus-area impact dashboard at /impact, built around a two-axis model: 🔵 our hand (the work we control with partners — the PL toolkit) and ⚫ the field (the change in the world, which moves with or without us). A "Our methodology" jump link in the hero takes first-time readers straight to the explainer.

What it does

  • Two axes, never one score. 🔵 our hand (PL blue) = our contribution to field progress (inputs · activities · outputs, the six-role toolkit); ⚫ the field (black) = did it happen (outcome) & did it matter (impact).
  • Cards show the field meter + role tags, and a green live signal (with a generic footnote) for points that have live data.
  • Detail view is a two-column methodology breakdown ("Progress against Inflection Point"); the six roles live in a pop-out modal; "Measuring / Our methodology" ties the logic-model chain to the A/B/C questions.

Notes

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vercel Bot commented Jun 29, 2026

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A member of the Team first needs to authorize it.

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lksbrssr marked this pull request as draft June 29, 2026 14:10
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lksbrssr force-pushed the lukas/impact-dashboard branch from 5980f67 to 6aa15ee Compare June 30, 2026 10:42
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@lksbrssr

lksbrssr commented Jul 1, 2026

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📸 Updated — simplified methodology

Removed the inputs→impact boxes; the methodology is now just the three evenly-spaced questions.

Our methodology (A "What difference are we making?" · B "Did the inflection point happen?" · C "Did reaching the inflection point matter?")
methodology

Detail card keeps the short questions; A reworded to "How is PL making a difference?"
modal

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lksbrssr commented Jul 6, 2026

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Folded in the market-signal work + restructured the detail modal

Merged the crowd-forecast / prediction-market work (previously the standalone #45) into this PR so it all lives in one place, and applied the review notes on the detail modal.

Detail modal — now a single column, three stacked sections:

  • The field — card title, progress meter, then Outcome and Impact moved directly under the title. Dropped the "Did it happen?" / "Did it matter?" questions and the A/B/C badges.
  • Our hand — "How PL is making a difference" with each PL contribution category (role) as a header + description, replacing the Inputs / Activities / Outputs split.
  • Live signal — live outputs + crowd forecast, incl. money at stake (market volume).

Also renamed the Permission → Policy PL role (methodology + modal).

restructured impact modal

Closing #45; everything is now stacked here.

@lksbrssr

lksbrssr commented Jul 6, 2026

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Detail modal — round 2 of review tweaks

  • The field: Outcome and Impact now sit above the progress bar, and the whole field section is wrapped in a subtle grey card so it reads as one group.
  • Clear separation between the three sections — a divider + spacing before Our hand and again before Live signal.
  • Our hand: PL interventions are pills again (Connection / Capital / Policy …), each showing its definition on hover. Underneath, an "In practice" block shows that point's actual activities and examples (instead of repeating the generic role definitions).

restructured impact modal — the field

(The screenshot shows the reordered field section; Our hand pills + "In practice" and the separated Live signal follow below in the same modal.)

@lksbrssr

lksbrssr commented Jul 6, 2026

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Updated the inflection-point detail modal per feedback: The field, Our hand, and Live signal now each sit on their own separated grey card against the white modal backdrop, stacked and left-aligned. Live signal is now a titled card (keeping the pulsing green globe) that holds the live-output box, crowd forecast, and the See the latest … insights link. (Screenshots shared with reviewer.)

lksbrssr pushed a commit to lksbrssr/plresearch.org that referenced this pull request Jul 6, 2026
Integrated into the /impact dashboard (stacked on PR daviddao#29, not amending it):
- src/lib/market-signals.ts — maps each inflection point to its closest
  market, choosing Polymarket vs Kalshi per match quality, with a liquidity
  fallback. Public Gamma + Kalshi APIs, hourly ISR.
- ImpactDashboard: crowd read on the FIELD axis (card + modal), platform
  badge, fallback tag, gap state; never conflated with PL contribution.
- impact/page.tsx: resolveAllSignals() alongside existing live outputs.

For discussion only.
@lksbrssr
lksbrssr force-pushed the lukas/impact-dashboard branch from ddb4dc2 to 41c5506 Compare July 6, 2026 19:25
@lksbrssr
lksbrssr force-pushed the lukas/impact-dashboard branch from 5a6dc42 to 651cbb1 Compare July 6, 2026 20:05
lksbrssr added 4 commits July 6, 2026 22:09
Match The field's grey card treatment for Our hand and the Live-signal
band so all three detail sections sit on separated grey cards against
the white modal backdrop, stacked and left-aligned. Live signal is now a
titled card (keeping the pulsing green globe) that holds the live-output
box, crowd forecast, and the 'See the latest ... insights' link.
Preview cards no longer render the crowd-forecast odds or live-output
metrics inline — they just show a small pulsing 'Live signal' marker so
there's a reason to open the card. The full crowd forecast, live metrics,
and evidence links stay in the detail modal.

Also make liveEvidence a list so a point can carry multiple real-world
signals, and add two to 'Provenance becomes the default for truth':
Starling Lab's content-authenticity displays and Wikipedia-on-IPFS during
Turkey's block.
…annot be switched off'

The censorship-shutdown example fits the resilient-comms inflection point,
not provenance. Provenance keeps the Starling Lab authenticity signal.
The 'field' axis used a hard black (#131316) via inline styles, so in dark
mode the field labels, the progress-bar fill, the active focus-area tab
icon, and the B/C badges all went black-on-black. Route FIELD_COLOR /
HAND_COLOR (plus new FIELD_INK and FIELD_TRACK) through theme-aware CSS
variables that flip in dark mode: the field ink becomes light, the badge
fill flips with dark ink, and the progress track darkens. Light mode is
unchanged.
@lksbrssr
lksbrssr force-pushed the lukas/impact-dashboard branch from 5106794 to 218ffb2 Compare July 7, 2026 08:21
Populate contribution.outputs on the six capital inflection points with
concrete PL-network ventures as examples of the Capital instrument (the
HAND/contribution axis — not field progress):

- Comms that can't be switched off: Fluence, Huddle01
- Personhood without the state: Tools for Humanity (World), SpruceID, Privy
- Provenance as default for truth: EQTY Lab
- Agents on open rails: Fluence, Spheron, Expanso, Impossible Cloud, Lava, Fleek
- Public goods financeable: + Molecule
- Capital paid on verified outcomes: + WeatherXM

Unverified funding relationships are hedged inline pending confirmation.
- Remove the 'funding relationship to be confirmed' qualifiers from the
  identity / provenance / comms outputs.
- Add a TEAM_LINKS registry (team name -> website) and a Linkify renderer
  so each mentioned venture in the 'In practice' activities/outputs lines
  links to its own site. Links open in a new tab (target=_blank,
  rel=noopener noreferrer), consistent with the live-evidence links.
…rthcoming areas

- Shared HOW_TO_READ contract constant in inflection-points.ts
- "How to read this" button above the card grid opens an overlay with the
  statement + the field / our hand / live-signal legend (3b)
- Same statement as a left-ruled pull-quote in the methodology section (3a)
- Explicit forthcoming flag on focus areas: AI & Robotics tab now reads
  "Soon" instead of "0", and its empty state leads with a "Coming Soon"
  pill and "Not zero, just not yet" copy
lksbrssr added 2 commits July 7, 2026 13:53
Statement still lives in the "How to read this" overlay button; the
inline callout looked out of place in the methodology section.
- Add Metaculus as a third signal platform (reputation-weighted community
  forecasts). Token-gated API via METACULUS_API_TOKEN with graceful fallback
  to just linking the question when no token/live price is available.
- Memory retrieval in simulation (WBE): gap -> proxy, mapped to Metaculus
  Q372 "brain emulation as first route to human-level AI".
- Agents run on open rails: drop the "open-weights best model by Dec 31"
  market (about the weights, not the infra) and map to the Polymarket
  "US removes public access to a major AI model in 2026" market as a
  contrarian/headwind signal for open, permissionless rails.
…le government

- Neural distillation: map to Metaculus Q372 (brain emulation as first route
  to human-level AI) as a neural-data-to-AI proxy.
- Memory retrieval in simulation: map to Metaculus Q2813 (date of first human
  whole-brain emulation). Add date-question support to the Metaculus fetcher:
  unscale the community CDF to a median year and show it as the headline
  reading (e.g. "~2068") instead of a probability.
- Programmable government in production: gap again — drop the shared World
  market, which now lives only on "Personhood without the state in the loop".
@lksbrssr lksbrssr changed the title Add cross-focus-area impact dashboard (/impact) Impact Dashboard Jul 8, 2026
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2 participants