🧪 PR29a — crowd-forecast signals on the impact page (Polymarket + Kalshi)#2
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Integrated into the /impact dashboard (stacked on PR daviddao#29, not amending it): - src/lib/market-signals.ts — maps each inflection point to its closest market, choosing Polymarket vs Kalshi per match quality, with a liquidity fallback. Public Gamma + Kalshi APIs, hourly ISR. - ImpactDashboard: crowd read on the FIELD axis (card + modal), platform badge, fallback tag, gap state; never conflated with PL contribution. - impact/page.tsx: resolveAllSignals() alongside existing live outputs. For discussion only.
Per review: the crowd read now sits inside the modal's full-width Live signal bar (alongside PL-backed live outputs) instead of under 'Impact — the cascade' in the field column. Gap points show a separate crowd-forecast note. Field-vs-contribution caveat preserved.
Thread per-market USD volume through MarketSignal (Polymarket volumeNum; Kalshi dollar_volume, falling back to contract count) and render a compact '$15k at stake' chip next to the crowd probability in the modal's Live signal band.
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What this does
Each inflection point is a pre-registered, falsifiable, dated bet — exactly what prediction markets price. This adds a crowd-forecast read on the FIELD axis of every inflection card (and its detail modal): an external, independent estimate of "will it happen?", kept strictly separate from PL contribution (Q3) and from a settled Q2.
Kalshi and Polymarket, chosen per match
The platform is selected on which market most closely matches the actual inflection point, not convenience:
(fallback)tag shown honestly.Examples now live on the page:
Where it lives — on the impact page, not separate
It's woven directly into the existing two-axis dashboard rather than a standalone route, so it reads as part of "the field" story. (I can still split it into a separate
/signalspage if you prefer.)Screenshots
On the cards (Polymarket %, gap state):
Best-match platform selection (Kalshi vs Polymarket):
Detail modal — best-match + liquidity fallback, with caveat:
Caveats: reads are proxies, not exact restatements; Kalshi live prices may be null depending on liquidity (the fallback handles that); nothing here endorses gambling.