Macro Scenario Generator

Macro Scenario Generator is a browser-based macroeconomic scenario lab for exploring how shocks propagate through growth, inflation, policy rates, real rates and the output gap.

Open the live dashboard

The dashboard runs entirely in the browser. No account, backend or API key is required.

What It Does

• Builds baseline and shocked macro paths over 6-60 months.
• Supports demand, supply/energy, monetary policy, financial risk and fiscal shocks.
• Shows baseline vs scenario paths and deviations from baseline.
• Produces an analyst-style narrative with regime classification and coherence flags.
• Includes a Bloomberg/IBKR-style market ticker with structured mock assets ready to connect to a live market-data API.
• Exports scenario data and Markdown reports from the browser.

Try It Locally

python -m http.server 8000 -d web

Open:

http://localhost:8000

Reference Engine and Tests

The Python modules remain as the reference engine and test layer.

python -m venv .venv
source .venv/bin/activate
pip install -r requirements.txt
python -m pytest

Architecture

macro-scenario-generator/
|-- web/
|   |-- index.html          # Browser dashboard
|   |-- terminal.css        # Terminal/workstation product styling
|   `-- terminal.js         # Frontend scenario engine, charts and ticker
|-- quant/
|   |-- macro_engine.py     # Python reference scenario engine
|   `-- narrative.py        # Python narrative/report generation
|-- etl/
|   `-- pipeline.py         # Optional external data refresh helpers
|-- utils/
|-- input/
|-- examples/
|-- docs/
`-- tests/

Deployment

The dashboard is static. Recommended options:

• GitHub Pages serving the web/ folder.
• Netlify with publish directory web.
• Vercel configured as a static project with output directory web.
• Cloudflare Pages with build command empty and output directory web.

A GitHub Pages workflow in .github/workflows/pages.yml deploys the web/ directory from main.

Model Summary

The engine uses calibrated response profiles for five shock channels:

• Demand: activity first, inflation and policy with lags.
• Supply / energy: inflation pressure plus weaker activity.
• Monetary policy: direct rate path, delayed demand and inflation effects.
• Financial risk: weaker activity, softer inflation and easier policy.
• Fiscal impulse: activity support with mild inflation and policy effects.

Outputs are reported in interpretable units:

• GDP growth: % y/y
• Inflation: % y/y
• Policy rate: %
• Real rate: %
• Output gap: % potential GDP

This is a scenario tool, not a point-forecasting system. It is designed for structured sensitivity analysis and communication, not for claims of econometric precision.