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Governed model refresh #3

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Governed model refresh #3

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76 changes: 65 additions & 11 deletions data/data-refresh-report.json
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,17 +1,37 @@
{
"schemaVersion": 1,
"status": "validated",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-02T20:54:08.712403+00:00",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-14T15:10:15.478953+00:00",
"cadence": "weekly",
"nextReviewAfter": "2026-09-07T08:31:00+00:00",
"nextReviewAfter": "2026-09-21T15:10:15.478953+00:00",
"season": 2025,
"modelVersion": "scouting-neighbors-valuation-ridge-auto-33681984060",
"modelVersion": "scouting-neighbors-valuation-ridge-auto-34860303805",
"source": {
"name": "dcaribou/transfermarkt-datasets",
"license": "CC0-1.0",
"latestMatchDate": "2026-05-24",
"files": [],
"rawRows": {}
"files": [
{
"name": "players.csv.gz",
"bytes": 4389958,
"sha256": "d22e407981d5b51a79bf8ff59835729f3526f7dc3495a6d8ed2f852ed2e86403"
},
{
"name": "games.csv.gz",
"bytes": 4995595,
"sha256": "142561989017d379bcf9e72bad0b87e0996bae0e7b710ebb3def9255f464c741"
},
{
"name": "appearances.csv.gz",
"bytes": 45253638,
"sha256": "e096c2b158fc3d52c4550526c4d4850dd62f31007652f4bcae112eadb1646802"
}
],
"rawRows": {
"players.csv.gz": 50149,
"games.csv.gz": 88958,
"appearances.csv.gz": 1894350
}
},
"counts": {
"previousPlayers": 414,
Expand All @@ -28,12 +48,46 @@
"largestValueChanges": []
},
"gates": [
{ "name": "Source contracts", "passed": true, "detail": "All compressed source tables exposed the required columns." },
{ "name": "Record coverage", "passed": true, "detail": "414 eligible players are represented." },
{ "name": "League coverage", "passed": true, "detail": "20 Premier League clubs are represented." },
{ "name": "Identity uniqueness", "passed": true, "detail": "Every serving record has a unique player identifier." },
{ "name": "Domain validity", "passed": true, "detail": "Positions, ages, values, and performance totals passed serving constraints." },
{ "name": "History coverage", "passed": true, "detail": "Player history artifacts cover the serving population." }
{
"name": "Source contracts",
"passed": true,
"detail": "All compressed source tables opened and exposed the required columns."
},
{
"name": "Record coverage",
"passed": true,
"detail": "414 eligible players vs 414 in production."
},
{
"name": "League coverage",
"passed": true,
"detail": "20 Premier League clubs represented."
},
{
"name": "Identity uniqueness",
"passed": true,
"detail": "Every serving record has a unique player identifier."
},
{
"name": "Domain validity",
"passed": true,
"detail": "Positions, ages, values, and performance totals stay inside serving constraints."
},
{
"name": "Season monotonicity",
"passed": true,
"detail": "Candidate season 2025 does not move backward from 2025."
},
{
"name": "History coverage",
"passed": true,
"detail": "414 of 414 players have validated history artifacts."
},
{
"name": "Change-rate guardrail",
"passed": true,
"detail": "Unexpected mass removals block the refresh before review."
}
],
"releasePolicy": "A validated snapshot opens a pull request. Production changes only after review, merge, CI, and deployment."
}
16 changes: 12 additions & 4 deletions data/model-report.json
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,11 +1,11 @@
{
"schemaVersion": 1,
"generatedAt": "2026-09-02T20:54:16.704943+00:00",
"productionVersion": "valuation-ridge-auto-33681984060",
"candidateVersion": "valuation-ridge-auto-33681984060",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-14T15:10:15.575608+00:00",
"productionVersion": "valuation-ridge-auto-34860303805",
"candidateVersion": "valuation-ridge-auto-34860303805",
"decision": "promoted",
"promotionMode": "threshold-gated pull request",
"rollbackVersion": "valuation-ridge-2025-v1",
"rollbackVersion": "valuation-ridge-auto-33681984060",
"gates": [
{
"name": "Artifact contract",
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -81,6 +81,14 @@
}
},
"history": [
{
"version": "valuation-ridge-auto-34860303805",
"evaluatedAt": "2026-09-14T15:10:15.575608+00:00",
"decision": "promoted",
"r2": 0.6135,
"maeEur": 9905783,
"records": 414
},
{
"version": "valuation-ridge-auto-33681984060",
"evaluatedAt": "2026-09-02T20:54:16.704943+00:00",
Expand Down
6 changes: 3 additions & 3 deletions data/player-histories.json
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
{
"version": "player-history-valuation-ridge-auto-33681984060",
"created_at": "2026-09-03T22:56:59.070391+00:00",
"model_version": "valuation-ridge-auto-33681984060",
"version": "player-history-valuation-ridge-auto-34860303805",
"created_at": "2026-09-14T15:10:07.566920+00:00",
"model_version": "valuation-ridge-auto-34860303805",
"seasons": [
2022,
2023,
Expand Down
4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions data/scouting-index.json
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
{
"version": "scouting-neighbors-valuation-ridge-auto-33681984060",
"created_at": "2026-09-03T22:56:54.600919+00:00",
"version": "scouting-neighbors-valuation-ridge-auto-34860303805",
"created_at": "2026-09-14T15:09:58.779860+00:00",
"season": 2025,
"features": [
"age",
Expand Down
24 changes: 12 additions & 12 deletions data/valuation-model.json
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
{
"version": "valuation-ridge-auto-33681984060",
"trained_at": "2026-09-03T22:56:54.600919+00:00",
"version": "valuation-ridge-auto-34860303805",
"trained_at": "2026-09-14T15:09:58.779860+00:00",
"competition": "GB1",
"season": 2025,
"currency": "EUR",
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -63,7 +63,7 @@
-0.0064745976,
-0.0508329225
],
"uncertainty_ratio": 0.7663414323779077,
"uncertainty_ratio": 0.7663414323779015,
"prediction_interval": {
"method": "seeded_bootstrap_percentile_80",
"seed": 2026,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1490,7 +1490,7 @@
0.154523722,
0.0296755778,
-0.0080758716,
-0.005631021,
-0.0056310211,
-0.0247230791
],
[
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1906,7 +1906,7 @@
0.01520728,
23.93368815
],
"intercept": 15.97753452898596,
"intercept": 15.977534528985965,
"coefficients": [
-0.8347365273,
0.374781695,
Expand All @@ -1917,7 +1917,7 @@
-0.0196086651,
0.1624544353
],
"uncertainty_ratio": 0.8434524037162356,
"uncertainty_ratio": 0.8434524037162309,
"prediction_interval": {
"method": "seeded_bootstrap_percentile_80",
"seed": 2026,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -2884,7 +2884,7 @@
0.0076249877,
0.2237585338
],
"uncertainty_ratio": 0.7834515173269044,
"uncertainty_ratio": 0.7834515173269045,
"prediction_interval": {
"method": "seeded_bootstrap_percentile_80",
"seed": 2026,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -3129,7 +3129,7 @@
-0.0763255232,
0.4264065726,
0.0970642905,
0.0704464888,
0.0704464887,
0.1420361345
],
[
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -3840,7 +3840,7 @@
0.08627979,
30.67332565
],
"intercept": 16.96510053080461,
"intercept": 16.965100530804612,
"coefficients": [
-0.7568904246,
-0.2416815636,
Expand All @@ -3851,7 +3851,7 @@
0.0193818797,
0.0299709059
],
"uncertainty_ratio": 0.7880115544015456,
"uncertainty_ratio": 0.7880115544015462,
"prediction_interval": {
"method": "seeded_bootstrap_percentile_80",
"seed": 2026,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -4807,7 +4807,7 @@
0.1161586,
24.76482795
],
"intercept": 16.96143254947794,
"intercept": 16.961432549477944,
"coefficients": [
-0.5362718119,
-0.1290514552,
Expand All @@ -4818,7 +4818,7 @@
0.1557534435,
0.0855702941
],
"uncertainty_ratio": 0.5810402170352499,
"uncertainty_ratio": 0.5810402170352514,
"prediction_interval": {
"method": "seeded_bootstrap_percentile_80",
"seed": 2026,
Expand Down